Sure. As has been said many, many, many times here, this market
is all over the place. There is NO trend, other than one very big
trend down. If you want to play the smaller, intraday market
gyrations, you have have as part of your plan these frequent
reversals. There are trends going one way on a 5 min chart, and a
trend the other way on a 30 minute chart. You need to understand
how those relate to one another, and how you're going to respond,
in order to trade successfully. Though, even the people who have
been doing this a long time find this market extremely difficult to
trade. If you don't have a plan or the experience yet to respond to
these very short-term patterns, the smart play is to ride the major
trend over a longer period, and that trend is decidedly down.
Nothing wrong with hanging out in cash during this consolidation
stretch.
I recall replying to your previous post and said that the
technicals looked good and that the 5,3,3 on the S&P was
looking encouraging; that would keep me in it long, but with tight
stops. Up to close on Wed, that looked reasonably good.
The technicals now don't look as good - closed below it's 20MA
yesterday, MACD could be setting up some negative divergence.
Yesterday's close is right at the channel's lower uptrend line,
possibly below it depending on how you draw it. And given the
market gave back all of Wednesday's gains yesterday, I'd be
exceedingly cautious. The 5,3,3 on the S&P looks to be
turning over. Support if it falls appears to still be around
12.50, which is also the 50MA. I'd be taking a lot off the
table and putting a tight stop below the lower trendline. You
risk getting stopped out if it dips below and recovers, but you can
always get back in. If it drops quickly to support, that's a
LOT of pain. Good luck.
This market feels very very wrong. Like watching the tide
go out right before the surge in a hurricane. I think many
stocks and certain sectors are being bouyed as investors shift
funds to what appears to be a port in the storm, only to get
skittish at the first hint of bad news, and then flee somewhere
else. In addition to the volatility, the number of gap-ups
and gap-downs on a given stock is disconcerting. Today's
port is tomorrow's disaster. A lot of indecision, few
trends, large reversals... None of it is being driven by
fundamentals. Optimism, fear, uncertainty or denial...
take your pick.
It's going to get very ugly in the not-to-distant future.
Where's that guy with the sign that says 'The End is Near'? ;-)
They'll whip around when near the narrow end of the wedge or
triangle. Before playing the systems, I'd look at the
intraday charts and avoid those patterns. Of course, you're
going against the premise that the systems work best when you don't
tinker with them, and you could miss a breakout. Tough
call, but I personally don't like automated trades when the charts
are this volatile intraday.
one other comment - earnings start rolling out this week.
No one should be expecting good news, but the reaction to the bad
news is more important. I'd be more conservative than usual,
tighter stops, more profit-taking, etc.
It's moving up in a well-defined channel, has support at the
20MA and lower uptrend line. Additional horizontal support
around 12.50. Fast stochastics are pointing down, but well
above 20. No negative divergence on the MACD; could be
setting up that way, but isn't there yet. I wouldn't consider
the BB all that tight, but even if they were, the trend is up and
it closed just above support on Friday.
To me, it looks pretty good. S&P is looking a little
bullish with the 5,3,3 turning up. That, along with this being near
support, would keep me in it with some stops in place.
If it were me, and depending on the entry price, I'd put a stop
below the lower trendline, or if I was willing to give it some more
room, put in two stops - one a little below the lower trendline for
1/2 shares and another around 12.50 for the rest. If the MACD
developed neg divergence, I'd tighten up my stops or take
profits.
If it continues moving up in the channel, I'd adjust my stops up
accordingly and take some profits along the way. If it pushes
through 15, next resistance looks to be 19.13, then 19.86.
Interesting reads. Can't really agree with Bair in the
Fortune article, though. "Buy and Hold"? That may prove to be
one of the most damaging strategies of all time... a toxic
byproduct of the flawed mindset that Gross describes - that
economic growth is a certainty....
I've been watching this one closely. Looks like it's
back-testing the broken downtrend line. I'm somewhat
conservative - I'll wait to see if it holds above the broken TL,
and then get in. Matt indicated 4 is next resistance on the
watch list, though the 20 MA could also act as resistance.
I picked some up after it cleared resistance around 21.50.
I set my stop at 19.25, higher than the 17.25 Matt suggested on the
watch list, but I'll adjust as necessary. I was tempted
to get in early this morning as infrastructure stocks in general
have been doing well, but decided to let the technicals drive the
decision and make sure it didn't bounce off resistance.
In this market, I could use a rabbit's foot of that size!
Actually... I'll stick with the technical analysis here - much more
reliable (and far less scary).
Newsletter
Subscribe to our email list for regular free market updates
as well as a chance to get coupons!
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
Breaking News...
Posted by rjdst on 30th of Jan 2009 at 04:14 pm
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28917922/
" appears" to be picking up steam....
Sure. As has been said
direction
Posted by rjdst on 30th of Jan 2009 at 12:10 pm
Sure. As has been said many, many, many times here, this market is all over the place. There is NO trend, other than one very big trend down. If you want to play the smaller, intraday market gyrations, you have have as part of your plan these frequent reversals. There are trends going one way on a 5 min chart, and a trend the other way on a 30 minute chart. You need to understand how those relate to one another, and how you're going to respond, in order to trade successfully. Though, even the people who have been doing this a long time find this market extremely difficult to trade. If you don't have a plan or the experience yet to respond to these very short-term patterns, the smart play is to ride the major trend over a longer period, and that trend is decidedly down. Nothing wrong with hanging out in cash during this consolidation stretch.
JRCC
JRCC COAL
Posted by rjdst on 30th of Jan 2009 at 09:18 am
I recall replying to your previous post and said that the technicals looked good and that the 5,3,3 on the S&P was looking encouraging; that would keep me in it long, but with tight stops. Up to close on Wed, that looked reasonably good.
The technicals now don't look as good - closed below it's 20MA yesterday, MACD could be setting up some negative divergence. Yesterday's close is right at the channel's lower uptrend line, possibly below it depending on how you draw it. And given the market gave back all of Wednesday's gains yesterday, I'd be exceedingly cautious. The 5,3,3 on the S&P looks to be turning over. Support if it falls appears to still be around 12.50, which is also the 50MA. I'd be taking a lot off the table and putting a tight stop below the lower trendline. You risk getting stopped out if it dips below and recovers, but you can always get back in. If it drops quickly to support, that's a LOT of pain. Good luck.
re: strange divergences
strange divergences
Posted by rjdst on 26th of Jan 2009 at 06:33 pm
This market feels very very wrong. Like watching the tide go out right before the surge in a hurricane. I think many stocks and certain sectors are being bouyed as investors shift funds to what appears to be a port in the storm, only to get skittish at the first hint of bad news, and then flee somewhere else. In addition to the volatility, the number of gap-ups and gap-downs on a given stock is disconcerting. Today's port is tomorrow's disaster. A lot of indecision, few trends, large reversals... None of it is being driven by fundamentals. Optimism, fear, uncertainty or denial... take your pick.
It's going to get very ugly in the not-to-distant future. Where's that guy with the sign that says 'The End is Near'? ;-)
Whips
systems
Posted by rjdst on 22nd of Jan 2009 at 03:13 pm
They'll whip around when near the narrow end of the wedge or triangle. Before playing the systems, I'd look at the intraday charts and avoid those patterns. Of course, you're going against the premise that the systems work best when you don't tinker with them, and you could miss a breakout. Tough call, but I personally don't like automated trades when the charts are this volatile intraday.
one other comment - earnings
JRCC
Posted by rjdst on 18th of Jan 2009 at 09:48 pm
one other comment - earnings start rolling out this week. No one should be expecting good news, but the reaction to the bad news is more important. I'd be more conservative than usual, tighter stops, more profit-taking, etc.
JRCC
JRCC
Posted by rjdst on 18th of Jan 2009 at 09:36 pm
It's moving up in a well-defined channel, has support at the 20MA and lower uptrend line. Additional horizontal support around 12.50. Fast stochastics are pointing down, but well above 20. No negative divergence on the MACD; could be setting up that way, but isn't there yet. I wouldn't consider the BB all that tight, but even if they were, the trend is up and it closed just above support on Friday.
To me, it looks pretty good. S&P is looking a little bullish with the 5,3,3 turning up. That, along with this being near support, would keep me in it with some stops in place.
If it were me, and depending on the entry price, I'd put a stop below the lower trendline, or if I was willing to give it some more room, put in two stops - one a little below the lower trendline for 1/2 shares and another around 12.50 for the rest. If the MACD developed neg divergence, I'd tighten up my stops or take profits.
If it continues moving up in the channel, I'd adjust my stops up accordingly and take some profits along the way. If it pushes through 15, next resistance looks to be 19.13, then 19.86.
Yep. Looks like light resistance
uso AND dxo ON THE MOVE AGAIN
Posted by rjdst on 14th of Jan 2009 at 02:27 pm
Yep. Looks like light resistance at $2.99, moderate at $3.04, and then it could make a nice advance.
related articles
taking profits
Posted by rjdst on 5th of Jan 2009 at 08:33 pm
Similar article here: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=4590
Interesting reads. Can't really agree with Bair in the Fortune article, though. "Buy and Hold"? That may prove to be one of the most damaging strategies of all time... a toxic byproduct of the flawed mindset that Gross describes - that economic growth is a certainty....
newgeorge - you can find
SPX 5 min chart.pngcould be a rising wedge? Becaureful with ...
Posted by rjdst on 5th of Jan 2009 at 02:50 pm
newgeorge - you can find a link to the chart in the sticky post at the top of the page.
SSO cross and cap gains
sso system
Posted by rjdst on 26th of Dec 2008 at 11:06 am
SSO was not one of the ones listed for cap gains - http://www.proshares.com/resources/news/36601289.html.
I played the 16/34 EMA cross, but since it was a gap-up this morning, I'm watching it closely.
DXO
Can anyone argue an entry point for DXO? Support? Resistance ...
Posted by rjdst on 17th of Dec 2008 at 03:11 pm
I've been watching this one closely. Looks like it's back-testing the broken downtrend line. I'm somewhat conservative - I'll wait to see if it holds above the broken TL, and then get in. Matt indicated 4 is next resistance on the watch list, though the 20 MA could also act as resistance.
I picked some up after
SGR
Posted by rjdst on 17th of Dec 2008 at 01:58 pm
I picked some up after it cleared resistance around 21.50. I set my stop at 19.25, higher than the 17.25 Matt suggested on the watch list, but I'll adjust as necessary. I was tempted to get in early this morning as infrastructure stocks in general have been doing well, but decided to let the technicals drive the decision and make sure it didn't bounce off resistance.
In this market, I could
off topic, Wow that's big
Posted by rjdst on 12th of Dec 2008 at 01:04 pm
In this market, I could use a rabbit's foot of that size! Actually... I'll stick with the technical analysis here - much more reliable (and far less scary).