XLE If this view you shared on energy stocks comes true and they
were to go to new highs, it is big time negative for the market,
consumers, etc. It does look like it can bounce here with the
bullish percent being at 4%. Question is after that bounce plays
out, could take some time, where it goes from there ?
If the SPX is going to come down hard again at some point in a
climatic wave, the business cycle would suggest that energy would
have to fall as well. All assets will fall on that type of
washout.
This is where stop losses would have to come into play on
objective entries if making them as usual. I personally prefer to
stick with a few instruments unless there is an absolute crazy
washout to a support or extremes like more recently where you can
short it with lower risk.
I really only play the multi year extremes in energy. I think it
is funny how many managers were saying you gotta own energy now
when it was at the highs. Nobody wanted it a few years ago when it
was actually a major buying opportunity. Kudos to you guys for
pointing out commodities before the big move happened this year.
Also well ahead of the downturn in stocks. What a freaking
mess.
1000% agree with what you said in regards to turning off the
political stuff. I listened to a few minutes of that hearing
yesterday with Powell and was laughing. The Fed board is a show,
they do the will of who employs them. If they don't, then they will
be out of a job. System is broken unfortunately. It is better for
me to just focus on the price action. Kind of like mapping, it is
helpful, though can't focus on it when trading, just have to obey
supports and resistance.
Had a great day out yesterday at an event with my wife, she
still is serving active duty in the Army. About 3 years or so left
now and she can retire. We did a museum trip and there was some
good conversation around everyone's backgrounds and how we all
related to the history. Really good community effort. When we can
get out and do those kinds of things, it becomes a bit clearer on
why there are differences and similarities in thinking. Even things
there are consensus around. It was a chance for everyone to be
heard. Way better than the media directing the conversation. We
stopped after the event for some bowling and food. I'm feeling sore
in some areas this morning. 46 is not the new 26
Well said on that last part. I've found that when talking
to people face to face, our actual differences are orders of
magnitude smaller than the perceived and manufactured
differences that are cartoonishly amplified by media. And we
talk about them in ways that are orders of magnitude more
constructive than the talking heads on TV, Twitter, etc.
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XLE If this view you
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 23rd of Jun 2022 at 08:38 am
XLE If this view you shared on energy stocks comes true and they were to go to new highs, it is big time negative for the market, consumers, etc. It does look like it can bounce here with the bullish percent being at 4%. Question is after that bounce plays out, could take some time, where it goes from there ?
If the SPX is going to come down hard again at some point in a climatic wave, the business cycle would suggest that energy would have to fall as well. All assets will fall on that type of washout.
This is where stop losses would have to come into play on objective entries if making them as usual. I personally prefer to stick with a few instruments unless there is an absolute crazy washout to a support or extremes like more recently where you can short it with lower risk.
I really only play the multi year extremes in energy. I think it is funny how many managers were saying you gotta own energy now when it was at the highs. Nobody wanted it a few years ago when it was actually a major buying opportunity. Kudos to you guys for pointing out commodities before the big move happened this year. Also well ahead of the downturn in stocks. What a freaking mess.
1000% agree with what you said in regards to turning off the political stuff. I listened to a few minutes of that hearing yesterday with Powell and was laughing. The Fed board is a show, they do the will of who employs them. If they don't, then they will be out of a job. System is broken unfortunately. It is better for me to just focus on the price action. Kind of like mapping, it is helpful, though can't focus on it when trading, just have to obey supports and resistance.
Had a great day out yesterday at an event with my wife, she still is serving active duty in the Army. About 3 years or so left now and she can retire. We did a museum trip and there was some good conversation around everyone's backgrounds and how we all related to the history. Really good community effort. When we can get out and do those kinds of things, it becomes a bit clearer on why there are differences and similarities in thinking. Even things there are consensus around. It was a chance for everyone to be heard. Way better than the media directing the conversation. We stopped after the event for some bowling and food. I'm feeling sore in some areas this morning. 46 is not the new 26
Well said on that last
Posted by rjdst on 23rd of Jun 2022 at 10:33 am
Well said on that last part. I've found that when talking to people face to face, our actual differences are orders of magnitude smaller than the perceived and manufactured differences that are cartoonishly amplified by media. And we talk about them in ways that are orders of magnitude more constructive than the talking heads on TV, Twitter, etc.