I have been trading CX a little and wondering if the daily chart has the dreaded candle setting up? Very extended for sure.

January 27, 2023  Tom McClellan   The chart is available.  onStock charts  if interested 

The McClellan Price Oscillator for gold futures prices has reached a pretty high level, equivalent to what it did at the price top in March 2022, and it has just now turned down.  This is a bearish signal and could set off a pretty big pullback.

The McClellan Price Oscillator is a cousin of the more famous McClellan A-D Oscillator.  My parents created both of these back in 1969.  That research grew out of their desire to get a better signal than could be gotten from looking just at moving averages alone.  Together, they wondered about finding the difference between two moving averages, and this was well ahead of when Gerald Appel did the same thing with his Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD) indicator.

A McClellan Price Oscillator employs prices for any stock, index, commodity, or futures price series.  One calculates two exponential moving averages(EMAs), known as the 10% Trend and 5% Trend.  Those percentage numbers refer to the “smoothing constant” used in the calculation of each EMA.  The smoothing constant governs how much weight is given to the most recent data, so for calculating a 10% Trend you would multiply today’s closing price by 10%, and then add that to 90% of yesterday’s 10% Trend value.  A larger smoothing constant means a faster response to price movements.

The chart below shows the 10% Trend (red) and 5% Trend (green) for the April gold futures contract.  The fact that they have become spread far apart is another way of saying that the Price Oscillator has risen to a high value, because the Price Oscillator represents the distance between those two EMAs.

Covered more RIG at 6.50 and rest of WTI 6.37

Covered more RIG at 6.50 and rest of WTI 6.37

That supply on TSLA is about the 175-range mentioned by Carter Worth last night

With OIH backing off the drillers are in short term trouble.  Covered more RIG 6.57   covered more WTI 6.40 

Covered half WTI 5.45 and half   RIG 6.62

Covered half WTI 5.45 and half   RIG 6.62

Took small, short in RIG 6.74 when I saw CVX earnings and action. Also shorted WTI  at 6.65 earlier today

Key Takeaways Mark Newton 

• SPX breakout likely to extend further into next week’s FOMC with targets near 4100
• Consumer Discretionary’s breakout vs. Staples last week suggests further outperformance
• DeMark indicators on Bitcoin shows more strength likely up to August 2022 highs

Good luck I saw him too.

Put calls very low at .73   for a change. 

With the US presidential election on Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024, we are in a pre-election year. In case you believe in cycles 

If we look at the S&P 500, we see that the first quarter of a pre-election year has been positive 17 out of 18 times since 1950, with the index rising by an average of +7.4%. This was also the best quarter of the entire four-year presidential cycle. On top of that, the second quarter has been quite good as well.

Boy have the small drillers given it all back so quickly. NINE RIG BKR etc. Too many algos and small traders ready to pull the trigger.  

Took quick gain out RIG 6.37  . 

Actually went long RIG after huge drop to 6.25 area. from 6.56 

Took a swing short again on RIG at 6.55 on opening with high RSI and covered most  6.37 and 6.36 

EVEN WOLF missed on earnings down 7 percent last night but recovering a lot this a.m.  I did take half of my INTC shares off on opening 30.09 . Just being careful 

INTC had large call buyers according to Fast Money last night. So I bought some stock 29.88 premarket. Even the dead Semis are perking up for now.

• With $3 support taken out and gas at the $2 territory, some are suggesting a drop to $1 levels
• Weather forecasts signal a February freeze that could flip the market’s direction
• Technicals suggest a further drop to $2.60-$2.50 before a rebound toward $3.30

The much-touted $3 support for natural gasis history, but is it game over for the bears?  From Investing.com today