I just saw the new

    Posted by rbreese on 12th of Jul 2024 at 04:15 pm

    I just saw the new CFTC report for the Metals and the Commercials added to their short positions. Will give an update if helpful. 

    what is the total short

    Posted by victorh on 12th of Jul 2024 at 05:00 pm

    what is the total short positions for the commercials in the gold market. The record high was 390,000 short positions in August 2020 which was a top. would be interesting to know the current number


    yes remember the way that

    Posted by matt on 12th of Jul 2024 at 04:32 pm

    yes remember the way that works -  commercials will always add to to short as price goes higher, the useful info is when you can look at historical data and see a number where the total Net Short gets up to that has marketed highs in the past.

    Again it's not that the commercials are smart money, the futures market for producers is about hedging not speculating (that's for us guys).  They add to short in order to hedge their production and lock in future prices

    I took that Series 3 test years ago, it's all about futures and hedging. For example you have a large farmer who 100,000 bushesls of corn planted - his nexst harvest is 3 months from now, he looks at futures prices and see's that CORN futures 3 months out are trading at 4.1 per bushel. However his cost basis is $3 per bushel.   The farmer may see that and think: I can short/sell CORN futures contacts that expire 3 months from now, which means I'm obligated to sell my corn at the 4.1 price, but I've locked those gains in. When those 3 months come around, corn may be trading higher at $4.5 a bushel, or it may be trading at $3 a bushel, which means he makes nothing.  He's willing to lock that gain in now vs gambling for the future.

    That's the primary function of the futures market is to hedge future production, NOT as specultion. Where speculators come in is to provide extra volume so that the spread's between bid/ask are not crazy wide, are small so that the producers doing the hedges don't give up too much on the spread. 

    that's why it's total BS when I see stupid reports out there blaming the speculators or saying that we should not allow speculation in things like crude oil etc - No you need the speculators to add the additional volume to narrow the spreads for the hedgers

    Going back to precious metals, the same thing applies: You hve a gold/silver mine - your cost for mining the gold is $1600 an ounce, you notice that you can sell GC futures 4 months out for $2450 - you are worried about the price of gold having a correction between now and then so you short/sell the GC futures to hedge and lock in a guaranteed price of $2400 for your producation of your future mined gold!  

    this is why the commericials add when the price of gold goes up - they are adding to their hedge for future prices

    Correct and the various financial

    Posted by steve on 12th of Jul 2024 at 11:03 pm

    Correct and the various financial institutions that provide capital to such miners often requires such hedging as part of loan agreements.

Newsletter

Subscribe to our email list for regular free market updates
as well as a chance to get coupons!