Stuck with NINE  short when XLE  topped out. Down 1.81 to 1.51. 

Matt   Very well said on the miners being EXPENSIVE.  Maybe we get a summer swoon .  I bought GDXJ puts om Friday when at 45.50. SLV has filled first gap already.  

Metals   VERY weak this a.m. And UUP barely green.

Steve  good to see I was  spotting some potential turn coming.  We deserve to shake the bulls out a bit. 

A thorough analysis of seasonal trends for the S&P 500  over the last 12 years provides two key takeaways: there is usually a major market top in the summer, and there is often a major market low in the fall. So, on top of simply analyzing the chart of the S&P 500, what else can we do to anticipate and validate a potential market top? This is David Keller from STOCKCHARTS  yesterday.

On CNBC they mentioned the NAIIM exposure index . Hope we get a minor pull back . Good weekend to all. 

Matt   You have a great opinion of the Metals . So is this the beginning of a 5 wave up pattern ? Thanks 

XRT  is acting very poorly as is ANF.  Is this a yellow flag warning of a real slowdown ?

$CPCE   down to .51 about the lowest over many months. 

NAIIM exposure index   does show some HOPE   for the BEARS   103.6   near 104.6   the high in April of this year. This bump up in one week from 83 to 103.6 shows FOMO was huge. 

AAII Sentiment  bulls  41.7  down  from 44 percent and bears 28 to 26 percent. LOTS of non believers in the rally

Seasonal trends for the Metals suggest July has a modest rally with August and September negative. 

But here we go; over the past 20 years, July has now taken over as the best month of the year for equities, being positive 75% of the time by a mean average of +2.29%. Since 1950, it's averaged a +0.89% return and has been positive 63.5% of the time. The caveat is during election years, it only averaged +0.27% of the time and was positive 55% since 1950. That's not so good. However, as I've pointed out in the past, most of these losses occur in the back half of the month, post-options expiration.  from Schaeffers    THE CAVEAT mentioned   shows weak gains . 

The NAIIM exposure index for 6/26 was basically flat 85.44 which leaves room for this to hit about 100 area when most are fully invested.