Posted by junkmaylbox on 27th of Feb 2009 at 02:09 pm
PA, Thank you for that piece of data. Last year when $gold was
killed in August, three banks were responsible for shorting it: GS,
Morgan-Chase and Citibank, if my memory serves me. Those are the
agents of the PPT IMO, and they will never be permitted to
fail.
Posted by junkmaylbox on 27th of Feb 2009 at 12:37 pm
That's what I am inclined towards too! Today is the last day of
the month -- the recording day for the mutual funds, etc. -- and
the last day of the week. I am looking for a bounce to sell short
and take them into the next week. Obviously, the PPT stepped in
early and propped the market :-)
Posted by junkmaylbox on 27th of Feb 2009 at 11:38 am
could anyone clarify what's happening on the market now? the
breadth has become a bit more bearish, but the indexes are right on
the support/resistance at the moment. Thanks!
Posted by junkmaylbox on 27th of Feb 2009 at 10:34 am
I covered all of my shorts, and am going to wait for a rebound
to re-enter. The market breadth is not sufficiently bearish this
morning. Maybe I am missing a plunge, but I don't get a feel that
today is the day. good luck, everyone!
Posted by junkmaylbox on 26th of Feb 2009 at 07:45 pm
Today we had related news (the budget proposal). Wait till
tomorrow to see where the financials are left. If they stay strong,
I am going to take profits on my positions and anticipate a small
bounce. They need to shake off short sellers before bringing the
market lower.
Posted by junkmaylbox on 26th of Feb 2009 at 07:41 pm
That means that the market should go lower. I've been watching
gold stocks today, and they anticipated a decline by going higher.
I took 1/3 of the profits on GDX and 1/2 on AUY. I will re-sell
them short again after their bounce.
Posted by junkmaylbox on 26th of Feb 2009 at 05:53 pm
Matt, What is the target for the wave 5 of 3 or of 5 now? Is the
the same as 720ish that Steve mentioned in yesterday's update? And
does the target depend on how you choose to label the current wave
(3 or 5)? Thanks in advance.
Posted by junkmaylbox on 25th of Feb 2009 at 12:13 pm
So the approach to make money is to trade swings rather than
bank on a trend (from having the Nov. lows been broken, etc). It's
making money either way, the difference is that it's PPT's money
and not the hedge funds' money...
Posted by junkmaylbox on 25th of Feb 2009 at 12:01 pm
I don't think we would backtest the broken triangle at 822. I am
going to load shorts are the 790 resistance. I am 50% invested on
the long side now and hold them merely because the market is so
oversold that it would not break down here. I will be out of longs
in a day or two, after 780 is broken to the upside. If we ever get
there, of course.
Posted by junkmaylbox on 25th of Feb 2009 at 11:56 am
Robin, I am quite pleased with the IB. Support is hard to get
too, but it's not needed almost all the time. Shorting is
occasionally problematic too, especially at the reversal (top or
bottom) junctions. I could not TLT short, etc. The trades are
pretty cheap and are executed momentarily: no other broker I've
used can beat their execution times.
If you want to short anything, use Scottrade: they always have
plenty of available stocks. PM me if you need more information.
Posted by junkmaylbox on 25th of Feb 2009 at 10:21 am
You have the nerves made of steel! I covered mine too early,
with a smaller profit. Matt's prediction of the extent of the
retrace has played perfectly! Thanks, Matt!
Posted by junkmaylbox on 25th of Feb 2009 at 09:32 am
PA, I heard that opinion on gold. The problem seems to be that
$gold does not follow technical analysis to the same extent as
everything else. To me the issue is manipulation of gold prices by
the big players more than anything else. I use EW analysis only as
a road map. A map is not the territory!
The problem with Prechter is that he can see vista but fails to
know small details that do not fit. The same as Bill Clinton, who
was a bit out of touch with reality.
Posted by junkmaylbox on 25th of Feb 2009 at 03:08 am
He is a very bright guy -- His book Conquer the crash is
brilliant -- but he may be a bit off with his timing, IMO.
Apparently he believes wave 5 will end any time soon and not some
100 odd points down on the $SPX.
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RSI(14) on $djr and XLF
Posted by junkmaylbox on 2nd of Mar 2009 at 03:37 pm
It's in the range of 34, not even close to 30. There is more room to sell, I reckon.
$SPX
SPX 30 min chart.pngOne coment: The 30 min SPX chart is ...
Posted by junkmaylbox on 2nd of Mar 2009 at 03:34 pm
Matt, do you reckon a bounce of the trendline (and 700 area) is due? Early tomorrow morning, perhaps?
We dropped below 820
Posted by junkmaylbox on 2nd of Mar 2009 at 10:12 am
This is one of Matt's targets. Take some profits here in case we reverse soon.
I went through the references
volume
Posted by junkmaylbox on 1st of Mar 2009 at 10:11 pm
I went through the references you provided: very enlightening.
PPT and Griffin
volume
Posted by junkmaylbox on 27th of Feb 2009 at 02:52 pm
PA, My definition of fail is liabilities exceeding or equal to assets. What is the title of Griffin's book you are recommending? thanks!
PPT
volume
Posted by junkmaylbox on 27th of Feb 2009 at 02:09 pm
PA, Thank you for that piece of data. Last year when $gold was killed in August, three banks were responsible for shorting it: GS, Morgan-Chase and Citibank, if my memory serves me. Those are the agents of the PPT IMO, and they will never be permitted to fail.
That's what I am inclined
volume
Posted by junkmaylbox on 27th of Feb 2009 at 12:37 pm
That's what I am inclined towards too! Today is the last day of the month -- the recording day for the mutual funds, etc. -- and the last day of the week. I am looking for a bounce to sell short and take them into the next week. Obviously, the PPT stepped in early and propped the market :-)
could anyone clarify what's happening
Posted by junkmaylbox on 27th of Feb 2009 at 11:38 am
could anyone clarify what's happening on the market now? the breadth has become a bit more bearish, but the indexes are right on the support/resistance at the moment. Thanks!
I covered all of my
Lows
Posted by junkmaylbox on 27th of Feb 2009 at 10:34 am
I covered all of my shorts, and am going to wait for a rebound to re-enter. The market breadth is not sufficiently bearish this morning. Maybe I am missing a plunge, but I don't get a feel that today is the day. good luck, everyone!
You said succinctly what I've been pondering over for hours tonight
Posted by junkmaylbox on 27th of Feb 2009 at 03:37 am
rp, this is brilliant!!
Today we had related news
Matt or Steve, Care to comment on the fact $BKX and ...
Posted by junkmaylbox on 26th of Feb 2009 at 07:45 pm
Today we had related news (the budget proposal). Wait till tomorrow to see where the financials are left. If they stay strong, I am going to take profits on my positions and anticipate a small bounce. They need to shake off short sellers before bringing the market lower.
Gold and gold stiocks
Gold Futures
Posted by junkmaylbox on 26th of Feb 2009 at 07:41 pm
That means that the market should go lower. I've been watching gold stocks today, and they anticipated a decline by going higher. I took 1/3 of the profits on GDX and 1/2 on AUY. I will re-sell them short again after their bounce.
Target for wave 5 of (..)
SPX 60 min chart.png Here's the wave count we have been ...
Posted by junkmaylbox on 26th of Feb 2009 at 05:53 pm
Matt, What is the target for the wave 5 of 3 or of 5 now? Is the the same as 720ish that Steve mentioned in yesterday's update? And does the target depend on how you choose to label the current wave (3 or 5)? Thanks in advance.
So the approach to make
Posted by junkmaylbox on 25th of Feb 2009 at 12:13 pm
So the approach to make money is to trade swings rather than bank on a trend (from having the Nov. lows been broken, etc). It's making money either way, the difference is that it's PPT's money and not the hedge funds' money...
TS
Posted by junkmaylbox on 25th of Feb 2009 at 12:08 pm
Matt, Do you have custom indicators in the TS? Such as TRIX(17,11) or DPO/PPO, for example?
I don't think we would
just posted this as a private message and thought it ...
Posted by junkmaylbox on 25th of Feb 2009 at 12:01 pm
I don't think we would backtest the broken triangle at 822. I am going to load shorts are the 790 resistance. I am 50% invested on the long side now and hold them merely because the market is so oversold that it would not break down here. I will be out of longs in a day or two, after 780 is broken to the upside. If we ever get there, of course.
IB
IB Info and Help
Posted by junkmaylbox on 25th of Feb 2009 at 11:56 am
Robin, I am quite pleased with the IB. Support is hard to get too, but it's not needed almost all the time. Shorting is occasionally problematic too, especially at the reversal (top or bottom) junctions. I could not TLT short, etc. The trades are pretty cheap and are executed momentarily: no other broker I've used can beat their execution times.
If you want to short anything, use Scottrade: they always have plenty of available stocks. PM me if you need more information.
You have the nerves made
closed shorts
Posted by junkmaylbox on 25th of Feb 2009 at 10:21 am
You have the nerves made of steel! I covered mine too early, with a smaller profit. Matt's prediction of the extent of the retrace has played perfectly! Thanks, Matt!
PA, I heard that opinion
FWIW
Posted by junkmaylbox on 25th of Feb 2009 at 09:32 am
PA, I heard that opinion on gold. The problem seems to be that $gold does not follow technical analysis to the same extent as everything else. To me the issue is manipulation of gold prices by the big players more than anything else. I use EW analysis only as a road map. A map is not the territory!
The problem with Prechter is that he can see vista but fails to know small details that do not fit. The same as Bill Clinton, who was a bit out of touch with reality.
Robert Prechter
FWIW
Posted by junkmaylbox on 25th of Feb 2009 at 03:08 am
He is a very bright guy -- His book Conquer the crash is brilliant -- but he may be a bit off with his timing, IMO. Apparently he believes wave 5 will end any time soon and not some 100 odd points down on the $SPX.