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Ok, I see your point.

$SPX...

Posted by junkie on 22nd of Jan 2010 at 08:55 pm

Ok, I see your point. What I still don't understand is why gaps below are of any significance. To me of any significance would be strong support. Also, are you referring to the gap about 1130 as the target of wave 2? Please be specific, please.

Could you tell me why

SPX 30 min chart and video

Posted by junkie on 22nd of Jan 2010 at 06:54 pm

Could you tell me why I should care of the gaps? No rudeness is implied. I have never understood why gaps from a long time ago are of any meaningful import.

Man, who cares about the

$SPX...

Posted by junkie on 22nd of Jan 2010 at 06:52 pm

Man, who cares about the exact entry point if you are at the beginning of a new trend? Just play the trend and enter in progressive increments, and you'll be fine. If the market is poised to drop by at least 10% -- as most commentators claim -- and we've seen only three down day, there is still a lot  of distance ahead to tread.

Are you sure you priced

Matt/Steve -- Intermediate trend

Posted by junkie on 22nd of Jan 2010 at 06:25 pm

Are you sure you priced it correctly? I reckon the answer is simple. A breach of MA(20) down changed the short-term trend to down. A breach of MA(50) will change the intermediate trend, and lastly a breach of MA(200) would set the long-term trend to downward pointing. Infamous Mike Swanson uses these criteria for his definitions of the trend.

You might be asking something like, Is the top we've seen _the_ top for the entire advance? That cannot be answered with certainty, and most market writers -- I've read so far -- posit that it is not.

Steve, do you have any

$SPX...

Posted by junkie on 22nd of Jan 2010 at 05:57 pm

Steve, do you have any projections for the target of the drop based on the completed waves so far? Or assuming that wave 3 terminates at 1085? I don't believe it will, by the way.

I could feel this when

You don't want to ...

Posted by junkie on 22nd of Jan 2010 at 05:53 pm

I could feel this when the market was advancing, and did not play at all on the long side. That's the price of this super-speed advance at the 3 times the speed of the advance from 2003 to 2007.

yeah, ouch!

$SPX...

Posted by junkie on 22nd of Jan 2010 at 05:49 pm

Well, I was surprised of that prediction too; I got it from somebody on this site who subscribed to Corey Rosenbloom. I would ask for a similar thing from Steve and Matt, when they do an intraday update. Although with all fairness, this could have been predicted: a support band would usually mean the bottom of that band, as far as stopping a decline. I remember seeing the same thing in fall 2008 on HUI as the final target of the drop: the support band there turned out to be the bottom of that band, 150.

This market is very tricky, so giving multiple targets and a way to check which one would be next depending on how the market behaved on the preceding one, is a must, IMO.

Also, perhaps Matt and Steve could provide an additional service of providing their intraday indicators from TS, such as $tick,$add, slopes for those who check the site intraday or for those who have a special subscription for extra $5-10 a month. This is similar to Matt's idea of providing real time intraday data for an small extra fee. I personally don't like trading blind, and I cannot afford to watch the screen all day: I have a day job. I am reconsidering going against the market to play the market without having enough intraday information to make informed decisions. I closed a half of my shorts too early this morning :(

We are definitely in wave

$SPX...

Posted by junkie on 22nd of Jan 2010 at 04:29 pm

We are definitely in wave 3 of some sort, MACD stochastics are pointing straight down of 5 minute charts. Perhaps, 1085 would be the target for the end of it. I am not betting on it, as the market could go lower.

Thanks, rp. Your perspective is

Posted by junkie on 22nd of Jan 2010 at 04:18 pm

Thanks, rp. Your perspective is consistent with the end of wave 3 of 3 of 3 some where here.

Steve, I will take it,

SPX 5 min

Posted by junkie on 22nd of Jan 2010 at 01:50 pm

Steve, I will take it, thanks. I don't have stockcharts membership, so I am shown only a daily chart of $tick, which is not as useful as intraday $tick. If Matt could figure out a way to add it to his 5-minute charts, that will be extra useful. No big deal if he can't.

adding $tick to $SPX 5-minute

SPX 5 min

Posted by junkie on 22nd of Jan 2010 at 01:22 pm

Matt, could you please add $tick to your $SPX 5-minute chart? Many thanks!

A natural explanation for strong Mondays, anyone?

Posted by junkie on 22nd of Jan 2010 at 11:36 am

Could anybody offer a rational explanation for Mondays' being the strongest day of the trading week for the past 5 months? The closest I could offer is that Asian markets are leading the advance (and now the decline), hence their pace is repeated on the US markets.

You nailed it down, man!

looks like a small wave 5

Posted by junkie on 22nd of Jan 2010 at 11:09 am

You nailed it down, man! I hope that we can retest the EMA(50) now for an excellent shorting opportunity.

I sold FAZ near the

looks like a small wave 5

Posted by junkie on 22nd of Jan 2010 at 10:14 am

I sold FAZ near the 61% of the wave 1 for a good profit. Thanks you for posting the targets here, they really aid in trading!

No, not a single bit.

Comment

Posted by junkie on 21st of Jan 2010 at 11:14 pm

No, not a single bit. The only chart that lost its uptrend line is $NAAD

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NAAD&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p53420278637&a=178625065&listNum=40

Wave 2 of 3 down of the 5-minute charts could take a few days to unfold. The MA(50) won't be broken too easily, IMO. Congratulations on your superb timing!

Watch EEM and EDZ: it

VXX

Posted by junkie on 20th of Jan 2010 at 07:11 pm

Watch EEM and EDZ: it closed below its EMA(20) today. Both performed well today.

What's your take in XLF:

Posted by junkie on 20th of Jan 2010 at 05:16 pm

What's your take in XLF: the same story? This megaphone action is used to stop out shorts before a steep decline, I reckon.

I took a small short

a gift from the banks

Posted by junkie on 20th of Jan 2010 at 10:01 am

I took a small short on KBE.

$TSX broke its EMA(20) on Friday. Being commodity laden, it should be ahead of the curve for the world markets, and then $SPX should follow the suit next, on Tuesday. Anything is possible, and if the rally is saved again, the next market-wide scare must be "it" :-)

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