I wrote this up this morning, I mentioned I would write something regarding my thoughts on all this for the bigger picture, especially Starlink which I hope will be spun off one day into a publicly traded company. However I also suggest watching those videos on TSLA as well

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This post is for the weekend and my thoughts on Elon Musk TSLA, SpaceX, and Starlink companies. 

TSLA is the only company that is currently publicly traded as you know, which I have liked for a long time as a growth story stock.  Another thing to consider regarding TSLA is not just their cars but their expansion into solar energy via their solar roof shingles and even insurance. Their approach to solar roofs with their shingles is interesting because 1. they are aesthetically eye pleasing vs standard solar panels.  2. The cost has always been a big factor and I like their approach with this and the way they allow you to pay for them. From what I understand they consider what you pay on average for your monthly power bill, let's say that it's $300 a month. They set it up where you finance the cost of a solar shingle roof for less than the $300 you are paying on average for your power bill, which makes it somewhat painless financially. The obvious draw backs of course is that if planned or had to move in a few years it might not make sense to do so, but if you were staying at your current home for long enough it could make sense. 

Also regrading car insurance. As you know the way insurance works is via actuaries' number crunching data/statistics in order to come up with quote prices based on statistical probabilities.  The actuaries are limited by the data they have.  This is where TSLA has a potential huge edge over all other car insurance companies because they track all of their cars and have millions upon millions of drive miles data.  You may have heard how you can get a lower rate from some insurance companies to put a chip in your car that monitors your driving and for this they typically give you a lower rate (unless you have a lead foot like me  .)  TSLA has a huge advantage of every other insurance company with their enormous database and can much better pin-point their prices and give lower price quotes confidently than any other car insurance company out there.

Then of course you have the Truck coming out eventually, which from a design standpoint is not just ugly aesthetics (mind you I don't think it's ugly I like it), but has potential huge savings in production costs because of its simplicity therefor it's by design; I highly suggest listening to the first video below on Tooling Costs of the CyberTruck.  also TSLA is getting closer to releasing their million mile battery tech.

Here's a few videos on these items:

- Tesla Tooling Cost Cybertruck Video

- Tesla Solar Roof Discussion video

- Tesla Insurance video

SpaceX and Starlink:

SpaceX is a privately held company that you cannot buy into.  Google Alphabet does own a 10% stake in Spacex so in a way an investment into Alphabet is a small indirect investment into SpaceX. Starlink which I will be focusing on next is currently part of SpaceX and from what I've read Starlink may eventually be spun off and I hope one day taken public because I think the opportunities are potentially enormous.

First off let me explain what Starlink is in a nutshell. As some of you may be aware there have been several attempts at global satellite data networks with Iridium being the best known example. The problem with these networks has always been cost, and data speed. SpaceX in a bid to address the data speed portion of the problem is planning a network of nearly 15,000 satellites, in contrast the Iridium network has only 66, in fact SpaceX already has 422 satellites in orbit.

Think about this, putting the Iridium constellation into orbit actually bankrupted the corporation once, they had to restructure their debt to stay viable, meanwhile SpaceX is turning a profit on launches, developed their own satellite technology, their own rocket technology and have deployed 6 times as many satellites, oh and they've helped Iridium update their soon to be irrelevant fleet during the same period.

By controlling their own launch vehicles SpaceX is essentially without competition in this space (pun intended), they're charging Iridium around 60 million a launch, while their own internal costs are likely around 20 million, by using boosters that have flown three or four times for their own starlink missions they are proving flight worthiness of rockets with multiple mission profiles and keeping down cost.

There is currently no competitor that is within even several years of duplicating their cost to orbit, let alone their satellite technology, which is where this gets interesting, in October of last year the Air Force tested starlink, to say they were impressed with what they saw would be an understatement, less than a month later the FCC modified their license for SpaceX to allow faster deployment of the constellation. 

Only the DOD has the power to get things like FCC redtape out of the way in a month, and they're moving ahead with a live fire exercise involving multiple connected assets later this summer. 

Starlink's currently has 422 of these small satellites in orbit currently with about 60 being launched each month with plans to increase that to eventually 400 at a time. It will take years to reach their initial goal of 12,000 satellites and eventually 42,000.  As little as 800 satellites can provide moderate internet coverage to some parts of the world, however 12,000 and 42,000 could provide internet up to 1 GBPS to every place on the planet including Antarctica etc.

Think about the long term potential of this for a moment: Sarlink offers the promise of a nearly 1 GBPS connection anywhere on the planet, essentially the upper end of 5g speeds. Currently we receive our internet through Broadband cable companies like Charter and Comcast, AT&T, and also wirelessly to our phones through telecommunication giants such as AT&T, Verizon, T Mobile, and we all know that 5G is currently being built out by these firms. A huge problem we have these days is competition especially with broadband companies and having little choice about where we get our internet from. 

Anyway I see the potential for Starlink to eventually become the largest telecommunications company on the planet if they deplaythis as planned because you would be able to wirelessly receive very high speed internet anywhere on the planet to your home, cell phones, tablets etc through Starlink.  Currently on your phone for example, you receive your internet through your wireless carrier when out and about away from your wifi network. At homes, businesses etc broadband companies like Charter, Comcast etc commonly supply the internet to these places.  Starlink could replace the internet for all those companies! Initially you will need a way to receive the signals in the form of a reciever that you could purchase and have the signals transformed to wifi. However I imagine that companies like Qualcom etc would eventually make modems that come installed in all phones to receive the signal.  Anyway the point is, if Starlink is able to achieve this goal of 12,000 and 42,0000 satellites then they could seriously take away huge swaths of internet business away from all these large telecom and broadband companies.

Rarely do you see such a large industry that might credibly see a sea change within a few years, but think about what it entails for say AT&T to be competitive with a global 5g network, they must build towers out nationwide, while their cost per tower is going to be lower than SpaceX's cost per launch that tower only serves a limited geographic area, we have over 300,000 such towers nationally currently, while 15,000 satellites sounds like and is a lot of satellites it is still considerably less infrastructure than a nationwide network of towers, and covers a larger geographic area including rural areas and the entire ocean, the arctic etc.

Again realize this is long term thinking at this point.  Again currently Starlink is part of SpaceX which is not public and you cannot invest in (except indirectly via Alphabet).  I know that Elon's goal is the keep SpaceX private so that he can focus on the company vs short term goals of making investors happy quarter to quarter, however hopefully he eventually spins off Starlink and into a publicly traded company so that we can invest into it.  

anyway guys that's some thoughts longer term on this kind of stuff.  I may also do a write up on AMD as well