I think there is a good possibility that we may have bottomed.
Reason- the financials testing 2009 lows and most of the rest
of the market testing 2010 lows. On the other hand, I cannot
see a lot of upside potential in this environment. Therefore, I am
not willing to put my 3 month money (money that I am unable
to move as I wish) anywhere except cash. We still need
clarity and it's not there. In the mean time, with money I
can easily manipulate, I am playing heavily in the direction that
the market is moving. When it changes so will I.
ATR is something that I expect to see increase in a volatile
bear market. Take a look at the size of the last bullish
engulfing candlestick- in relation to the last many years. I
could give you values for the ATR but you can do it visually just
as well. What does it mean? I don't know for sure
except that bull markets are usually much more orderly and bear
markets are not.
opposing forces that are affecting the market right now.
On the one side we have overburdening debt coupled with aging
and entitled populations, and on the other we have
crooks, politicians and governments doing everything possible to
try to keep the population happy or at least delay the problem long
enough that it hopefully becomes less of a problem. (If that's even
possible.)
So how do we deal with it as traders? Well, it may well
turn out that your thinking is absolutely correct about the long
term.
Since I frequently find myself in a similar dilemma, I
have a note taped right to my laptop. It says
"Think big picture but trade the small
one".
The thing that strikes me is that your CCI appears to be
slowed way down. So you've got it in trending mode kind of
like a slow 60 stochastic. Now that's OK if that's what
you're looking for but it will just move a whole lot slower
compared to price. Is that what you were trying to figure
out? I think the standard CCI is 20.
Using MS as an example but others are similar. Nice
support area from '09 limiting your downside but also keep in mind
that I don't believe we are near financial armegeddon. Maybe
we are. MS looks to be in a nice bottoming pattern. It
could pull back a little and form an inverse H&S or pop through
resistance here. Short term targets downtrend line that
touches price somewhere between 18 and 20. Might end up being
nice longer term trade if things play out right. In my
mind the downside appears priced in already. But, it
all depends on the market.....DYD Diligence.
We are struggling at the top of this big trading range and
fighting very strong resistance. And no, 1230 is not a safe
place to say it's over. It helps but it's not there
yet.
to hold a strong bias or at least to tie your money to that bias
on anything longer than a trading basis. It's either early in
a longer bear or possibly near the end of an ugly correction.
I can sit here and make some pretty good cases why we should
go down, up, or even sideways for a period of time. The truth
is that our long term charts tell us this has a high probability of
being a longer term bear market. It doesn't make it so, it
just increases the probability. It could still end up
being just an ugly correction. We won't know which it is for
a while.
If you have long term money riding one direction or another then
you should have a stop where you realize that you are wrong and
need to get out. You should know where that point is.
Otherwise cash is safe until the picture clears.
Personally, I think the risks are too high for a long term bias
in either direction. But, my risk profile is designed to keep
what I have and make money when I can. Your's may be
different.
The 60 Minute GET count shows us at a wave 4 of some kind,
possibly even beginning 5 up. The wave 4 jives with the
oscillator so that's good. Keep in mind that 4's take on all
kinds of shapes so it may not be completed, but it appears to have
at least met the minimum requirements.
Of course, now somehow you have to apply that to the daily and
the trading range. Good luck with that.
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
and SPY W for good measure
Posted by johnc on 1st of Nov 2011 at 03:44 pm
SPY GET Counts D and 60 Minute
Posted by johnc on 1st of Nov 2011 at 03:41 pm
FWIW
OK. You asked.
Seriously what do u guys think
Posted by johnc on 27th of Oct 2011 at 01:54 pm
I think there is a good possibility that we may have bottomed. Reason- the financials testing 2009 lows and most of the rest of the market testing 2010 lows. On the other hand, I cannot see a lot of upside potential in this environment. Therefore, I am not willing to put my 3 month money (money that I am unable to move as I wish) anywhere except cash. We still need clarity and it's not there. In the mean time, with money I can easily manipulate, I am playing heavily in the direction that the market is moving. When it changes so will I.
Possible for sure, but the ATR is certainly not in the warm and fuzzy territory
ATR
Posted by johnc on 27th of Oct 2011 at 12:39 pm
ATR
Posted by johnc on 27th of Oct 2011 at 12:30 pm
ATR is something that I expect to see increase in a volatile bear market. Take a look at the size of the last bullish engulfing candlestick- in relation to the last many years. I could give you values for the ATR but you can do it visually just as well. What does it mean? I don't know for sure except that bull markets are usually much more orderly and bear markets are not.
SPY Monthly
Nice chart. Nice argument. Nice defensible/tradeable position
SPX daily..got to be an objective defensible short here
Posted by johnc on 27th of Oct 2011 at 10:37 am
SPY D shows we're between important support and Resis
Posted by johnc on 25th of Oct 2011 at 03:34 pm
So be careful on the short term
That's because it's a very difficult question. There are just too many
50 DMA
Posted by johnc on 25th of Oct 2011 at 06:38 am
opposing forces that are affecting the market right now. On the one side we have overburdening debt coupled with aging and entitled populations, and on the other we have crooks, politicians and governments doing everything possible to try to keep the population happy or at least delay the problem long enough that it hopefully becomes less of a problem. (If that's even possible.)
So how do we deal with it as traders? Well, it may well turn out that your thinking is absolutely correct about the long term.
Since I frequently find myself in a similar dilemma, I have a note taped right to my laptop. It says "Think big picture but trade the small one".
That keeps me focused where I need to be.
It could, but since the
Comments on the $RUT CCI would be appreciated.
Posted by johnc on 24th of Oct 2011 at 02:22 pm
It could, but since the indicators are driven by price, it could just as easily go back down and we all want to know the answer to that one.
Agreed.
Posted by johnc on 24th of Oct 2011 at 12:41 pm
I played most of the trend up but I'm flat until I see how we handle this resistance.
JRoger
Comments on the $RUT CCI would be appreciated.
Posted by johnc on 24th of Oct 2011 at 12:30 pm
The thing that strikes me is that your CCI appears to be slowed way down. So you've got it in trending mode kind of like a slow 60 stochastic. Now that's OK if that's what you're looking for but it will just move a whole lot slower compared to price. Is that what you were trying to figure out? I think the standard CCI is 20.
Financials deserve a look.
Posted by johnc on 21st of Oct 2011 at 03:07 pm
Using MS as an example but others are similar. Nice support area from '09 limiting your downside but also keep in mind that I don't believe we are near financial armegeddon. Maybe we are. MS looks to be in a nice bottoming pattern. It could pull back a little and form an inverse H&S or pop through resistance here. Short term targets downtrend line that touches price somewhere between 18 and 20. Might end up being nice longer term trade if things play out right. In my mind the downside appears priced in already. But, it all depends on the market.....DYD Diligence.
If you look at this picture, you should see that NOBODY knows
Boy, that was a short bear market!
Posted by johnc on 21st of Oct 2011 at 01:55 pm
We are struggling at the top of this big trading range and fighting very strong resistance. And no, 1230 is not a safe place to say it's over. It helps but it's not there yet.
SPY- Resistance and GET
Posted by johnc on 21st of Oct 2011 at 10:20 am
Looks like we may want to head toward the 200MA. We'll see
Not to argue w you but the $SSEC looks like very nice tradeable support
Connecting the dots looking forward....
Posted by johnc on 19th of Oct 2011 at 02:48 pm
I'll take some of that.
Mfogli1, IMHO the position of this market is probably the most difficult time
What ever happened to the idea...
Posted by johnc on 19th of Oct 2011 at 08:20 am
to hold a strong bias or at least to tie your money to that bias on anything longer than a trading basis. It's either early in a longer bear or possibly near the end of an ugly correction. I can sit here and make some pretty good cases why we should go down, up, or even sideways for a period of time. The truth is that our long term charts tell us this has a high probability of being a longer term bear market. It doesn't make it so, it just increases the probability. It could still end up being just an ugly correction. We won't know which it is for a while.
If you have long term money riding one direction or another then you should have a stop where you realize that you are wrong and need to get out. You should know where that point is. Otherwise cash is safe until the picture clears.
Personally, I think the risks are too high for a long term bias in either direction. But, my risk profile is designed to keep what I have and make money when I can. Your's may be different.
Really Good Secular Bear Market w Current Analysis..but long
Posted by johnc on 17th of Oct 2011 at 06:29 pm
Read it when you have the time to absorb it.
http://pring.com/assets/pdfs/lostdecade.pdf
SPY Get 15 minute
Posted by johnc on 17th of Oct 2011 at 03:13 pm
Looks to be moving toward a 4.
GET 60 Minute SPY
Posted by johnc on 14th of Oct 2011 at 08:48 am
The 60 Minute GET count shows us at a wave 4 of some kind, possibly even beginning 5 up. The wave 4 jives with the oscillator so that's good. Keep in mind that 4's take on all kinds of shapes so it may not be completed, but it appears to have at least met the minimum requirements.
Of course, now somehow you have to apply that to the daily and the trading range. Good luck with that.
SPX 15 Minute Get
Posted by johnc on 13th of Oct 2011 at 01:55 pm