The world's major central banks
unleashed coordinated action Wednesday to ease the increasing
strains on the global financial system, a move that sent stock
markets up sharply.
Don't know for sure how much it will neutralize the European
situation, but I am increasing longer term China exposure at
minimum. Looks like a good R/R to me.
Right now it appears to be in a wave 5 down on the daily and in
what appears to be a bear flag. So, inquiring minds want to know.
Why? The weekly looks worse.
I especially like his work because the market is fluid and some
people try to make EW counts much too rigid. He is not
afraid to make his count and then adjust it as new information
presents itself. Some EWavers try to make the market conform
to their wishes rather than their counts conform to the
market.
Some of us are not able to day trade and it becomes important to
formulate a slightly longer term view of the market. At times
like now that can be a very challenging task.
I'll share some thoughts in the hopes that it helps somebody
else formulate their own plan for the market. I do not
pretend to know which way the market is headed but this certainly
feels like a major inflection point where a plan for what's coming
may be helpful.
My personal plan is based largely on the NYSI weekly chart with
the 5/3 stochastics (although I also use the BPSPX and BPCompq to
aid timing). I've been using this chart for a long time now
and while no single chart ever gives the complete picture this one
is very good at helping to understand where we are likely headed.
At times like this I find it especially useful.
In my view, how this next down cycle plays out will be very
telling about where we go from here.
But first, what do we see in the chart immediately. Well-
the NYSI has moved into mildly bullish territory at the +700 level.
Second the last cycle down was cut short at the beginning of
October. That also shows strength and is bullish. But
putting it into context we were also coming off a vicious down move
on the S&P so things are far from rosy.
Now, as you know we have been grinding higher lately -ugly maybe
but grinding and the stochastics on the NYSI are finally about to
crossover to the downside. So in my view 4 things can now
happen.
1. The stochastics cycle down as they typically would and the
market only has a mild typical pullback. Then I think that is
bullish and we probably go much higher.
2. The stochastics go down part way and cross back over to
the upside, then I think that is also bullish and we probably go
much higher.
3. The stochastics follow their normal course down with a very
large corresponding move down in the S&P. Then I think
the bear market is firmly on.
4. Finally, and rarely, the stochastics cycle all the way down
while the S&P continues moving higher. This only happens
in strong impulsive moves and you better get onboard somewhere
along the way.
Whatever you decide to do don't be too positive going into the
the coming downside crossover until you get a better idea of where
the market is going to take us.
address their financial problems by shuffling leaders/cabinets
and coalitions in the middle of rather important decisions.
Some consistency seems to be something that might help right
now.
If the people were tossing the politicians out, then I can
understand that. But from my vantage point (blurred and far
away), it appears to be different factions just looking for a way
into the command posts. I wish I understood what the heck
they are doing.
ERTS. I think they may have had good earnings (not sure
about that), but they do have a new game out that is pretty hot.
Look to be moving out of a long weekly base into an
accumulation pattern. Volume is good on the first try
out.
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
Remember when we used to say "Don't Fight the Fed"
Posted by johnc on 30th of Nov 2011 at 11:06 am
Is it wise to fight this?
The world's major central banks unleashed coordinated action Wednesday to ease the increasing strains on the global financial system, a move that sent stock markets up sharply.
I wouldn't be short right now based on this chart. Looks too positive.to me.
thoughts on USO /crude appreciated
Posted by johnc on 30th of Nov 2011 at 09:07 am
You should always specify time frame though.
Does China rate lowering tip the odds toward the bulls-globally?
How do you trade this mess???
Posted by johnc on 30th of Nov 2011 at 07:50 am
Don't know for sure how much it will neutralize the European situation, but I am increasing longer term China exposure at minimum. Looks like a good R/R to me.
Big Picture just not looking that good.
Posted by johnc on 24th of Nov 2011 at 11:14 am
SPX Monthly
Well...
TRX
Posted by johnc on 18th of Nov 2011 at 02:06 pm
Right now it appears to be in a wave 5 down on the daily and in what appears to be a bear flag. So, inquiring minds want to know. Why? The weekly looks worse.
That was great. I'm not in tune with European
nigel farage
Posted by johnc on 18th of Nov 2011 at 07:09 am
politics but that was worth watching.
IPO from June to keep an eye on
Posted by johnc on 16th of Nov 2011 at 11:52 am
FIO
This should help for now
BPENER
Posted by johnc on 16th of Nov 2011 at 08:40 am
BPENER. I never really know if you can see it right though.
Thx. He does a real nice job.
good little video overview http://leavittbrothers.com/blog/?%20p=5028
Posted by johnc on 14th of Nov 2011 at 06:17 am
I was just looking at that renko chart when I was joking with you. But no
weekly renko.....
Posted by johnc on 12th of Nov 2011 at 08:00 am
otherwise I am personally ready to be short until I I can't. But, I still don't know if RP's bear goggles are as strong as yours.
MG. Your ability to see bearishness in a chart that is
weekly renko.....
Posted by johnc on 12th of Nov 2011 at 07:16 am
more positive than negative is truly uncanny.
Caldaro
btw....
Posted by johnc on 9th of Nov 2011 at 04:21 pm
I especially like his work because the market is fluid and some people try to make EW counts much too rigid. He is not afraid to make his count and then adjust it as new information presents itself. Some EWavers try to make the market conform to their wishes rather than their counts conform to the market.
My intermediate term game plan.
Posted by johnc on 8th of Nov 2011 at 07:31 pm
Some of us are not able to day trade and it becomes important to formulate a slightly longer term view of the market. At times like now that can be a very challenging task.
I'll share some thoughts in the hopes that it helps somebody else formulate their own plan for the market. I do not pretend to know which way the market is headed but this certainly feels like a major inflection point where a plan for what's coming may be helpful.
My personal plan is based largely on the NYSI weekly chart with the 5/3 stochastics (although I also use the BPSPX and BPCompq to aid timing). I've been using this chart for a long time now and while no single chart ever gives the complete picture this one is very good at helping to understand where we are likely headed. At times like this I find it especially useful.
In my view, how this next down cycle plays out will be very telling about where we go from here.
But first, what do we see in the chart immediately. Well- the NYSI has moved into mildly bullish territory at the +700 level. Second the last cycle down was cut short at the beginning of October. That also shows strength and is bullish. But putting it into context we were also coming off a vicious down move on the S&P so things are far from rosy.
NYSI Weekly
Now, as you know we have been grinding higher lately -ugly maybe but grinding and the stochastics on the NYSI are finally about to crossover to the downside. So in my view 4 things can now happen.
1. The stochastics cycle down as they typically would and the market only has a mild typical pullback. Then I think that is bullish and we probably go much higher.
2. The stochastics go down part way and cross back over to the upside, then I think that is also bullish and we probably go much higher.
3. The stochastics follow their normal course down with a very large corresponding move down in the S&P. Then I think the bear market is firmly on.
4. Finally, and rarely, the stochastics cycle all the way down while the S&P continues moving higher. This only happens in strong impulsive moves and you better get onboard somewhere along the way.
Whatever you decide to do don't be too positive going into the the coming downside crossover until you get a better idea of where the market is going to take us.
john
Here's one and a P&F. Hope you can see them OK
Oil stocks
Posted by johnc on 8th of Nov 2011 at 03:05 pm
BPENER
PF
I'm sure I'm not the only person wondering how Greece and Italy can
Posted by johnc on 7th of Nov 2011 at 06:50 am
address their financial problems by shuffling leaders/cabinets and coalitions in the middle of rather important decisions. Some consistency seems to be something that might help right now.
If the people were tossing the politicians out, then I can understand that. But from my vantage point (blurred and far away), it appears to be different factions just looking for a way into the command posts. I wish I understood what the heck they are doing.
Trade Idea to watch
Posted by johnc on 6th of Nov 2011 at 06:27 pm
ERTS. I think they may have had good earnings (not sure about that), but they do have a new game out that is pretty hot. Look to be moving out of a long weekly base into an accumulation pattern. Volume is good on the first try out.
Given the wording of this article, I think you may
CME Group???/
Posted by johnc on 3rd of Nov 2011 at 09:06 am
be able to infer some culpability to CME. True or not, who knows but it may depend on criminality that may come into play. http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/mf-global-files-for-bankruptcy-mf/11/2/2011/id/37729
Esignal data feed. Anybody having problems?
Posted by johnc on 2nd of Nov 2011 at 08:43 am
My end of day daily data appears correct. Intra-day data is showing data from May 25-26. Um, that won't work.
On the 60 yes the Make or Break is almost 121. If 3 is done..
SPY GET Counts D and 60 Minute
Posted by johnc on 1st of Nov 2011 at 03:55 pm
Interesting that when Greece looked done (for about a minute)..Italy immediately came into
Referendum back on in Greece - what a joke
Posted by johnc on 1st of Nov 2011 at 03:52 pm
the crosshairs. This is not going to end for a while and it looks like it won't end well.