http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/   Long Term Charting the SPX and Ten Year Yield

You can draw your own inferences but I think Corey lays it out very well

Looks like it's testing support nicely at 40 on the 60 minute.  The real question is does it hold?  Notice it appears to be in a wave 5 on the 60 with divergence in the oscillator, that jives.  But, could it have a bit more downside before it's done, yep.  Maybe, Maybe not.  I think if the market breaks it does too.  You know what they say about free advice.

Maybe it's just me but a couple little support lines to get through and it's game on. I'm expecting it.  Sitting on my hands until then

I don't personally trade it but, on the weekly I would not call that a likely 5 because the oscillator is too strong in relation to the past that you can see.    On the daily if it pulls back it sets up a nice evening star that portends  a down move of unknown magnitude.  That won't be confirmed until today's close, though.  All I could say is it depends on your time horizon and trade risk.  To me the risk is a little high short term, but I'm always like that.

Take this for what it's worth, but I find it to be very accurate when it makes sense and it does right now.  The last move up appears to be a 4 of wave 3 on the daily.  If that's right we still have to finish 5 of 3. A bigger wave 4 and an entire wave 5 yet.    Then we can try to figure out what's next.  Anyway the oscillators etc seem to jive with this only being wave 3 still on the daily

While I am ranting,  I have to admit that I can't stand hearing how  "fundamentals" are good even if the macro picture is weak.  My understanding of the definition of fundamentals must be wrong.  I would think that multiple countries at risk of default, the biggest economies mired in debt, weak banks stuffed to the gills with bad, unmarked exposures, and clear signs of a slowdown with GDP weak across the board, ARE FUNDAMENTALS!  I am not sure when "fundamentals" became defined as last quarter's earnings.  In any case, the global macro picture eventually affects earnings and effectively becomes the "fundamentals", even as defined by the diehard bulls, so ignoring them is a big mistake.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-its-only-flesh-wound?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29

This is  not exactly the right one. But you'll find it on the site.

  http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/

http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Four-Bad-Bears.php

When we get this close I like to fine tune with the daily NYSI with a small ema crossover pair.  It's right there.  That's unfortunate because I might have to get out of my TZA before I wanted to. Maybe we can get a quick rinse tomorrow.

RE: Europe and the Endgame.  Actually it's a book promotion but the article is very good covering the Europe situation.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/the-beginning-of-the-endgame/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheBigPicture+%28The+Big+Picture%29 

Most of us here prefer to try to stay with the market trend in one way or another.  The main difference between most of us is the time frame that we trade in to the strategies that we use to try to capture profits.  So in that sense most of us here would prefer not to be in stocks when they are moving down unless we are shorting them or playing short counter-trend moves.  

Personally, I would not like to be in dividend stocks, defensive stocks or growth stocks in a bear market.  If you are a new investor my advice is to watch Matt's long term and other signals and go to cash when we are in downtrends.  It's not exciting but not losing money is the most important rule of investing.  Making it is secondary only after you don't lose it.

Making 1/2 percent on your money is always better than losing 20%.  Besides your money buys a lot more stocks  at the bottom of a bear market.  But in the mean time protect it.

For now, start learning.  You're at the right place.

john

Heck, maybe it can hold out until the Weekly NYSI cycles down. Nah, I doubt it.

NYSI W

No, not really. Maybe after one more good push down?.

I guess the scenery and para-sailing aren't exciting enough on their own?

2009 lows were at 26ish.  Low risk long term opportunity coming. 

I think so.  If you look at the blast down we have left the Bollinger bands, and MA's quite a bit back.  The recent price action for the most part looks like just inside days which is really just treading water waiting to be able to move one way or the other.  Down is the likely choice.  But, not worth much until it happens one way or the other.

I was watching a lot of trades go through in many different stocks.  Almost all of them were tagged w short sale, so even at the end most all of it seemed to be short covering, likely anticipating a well earned bounce into a wave 4.  That's my take anyway.   

I like looking for symmetry in  what appears as possible zig zag patterns.  It works a lot.  Anyway, this doesn't really fit it with what I think about financials but...notice the dark teal lines.  Price is right there. Given the decline and uncertainty I will choose to watch here but it's an interesting possibility.  Sorry about all the S/R lines I need those.