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My sister in law messaged

JP Morgan Source

Posted by fundamentalvalues on 3rd of May 2021 at 08:12 am

My sister in law messaged my wife the other day and is buying stocks now because my brother in law's friend made good money with Dogecoin. The two stocks she mentioned she is buying are already at fresh highs and very overbought. She could have bought some things during the last correction or the corona meltdown, but wanted to wait for the market to "get better". 

I don't do business with family and never comment on anyone's strategy. Everyone needs to adopt a plan and be responsible for their own decisions. 

$DGNR 

Advent International is the majority shareholder: 

About Advent International

Founded in 1984, Advent International is one of the largest and most experienced global private equity investors. The firm has invested in over 350 private equity transactions in 41 countries, and as of September 30, 2020, had $66.2 billion in assets under management. With 15 offices in 12 countries, Advent has established a globally integrated team of over 200 investment professionals across North America, Europe, Latin America and Asia. The firm focuses on investments in five core sectors, including business and financial services; health care; industrial; retail, consumer and leisure; and technology. After 35 years dedicated to international investing, Advent remains committed to partnering with management teams to deliver sustained revenue and earnings growth for its portfolio companies.

For more information, visit:

Website: www.adventinternational.com

Here is the business combination release information: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210203005331/en/CCC-Information-Services-Inc.-and-Dragoneer-Growth-Opportunities-Corp.-Announce-Business-Combination-Creating-Publicly-Listed-Leader-Accelerating-the-Digital-Transformation-of-the-PC-Insurance-Economy

DGNR is fine and will close this quarter. CCC is a great company with solid long term history. Investors in the PIPE and forward purchase agreements are big as well. Valuation and how long it will take for earnings to come into the stock are the big question. I see it as a great investment opportunity, though it seems many these days have trouble staying in something for a few days let alone a few years:

  • The transaction includes $150m of fully committed common stock PIPE anchored by Fidelity Investments, T. Rowe Price (NASDAQ: TROW) and $175m forward purchase agreements with Dragoneer funds and Michael Bloomberg's family office, Willett Advisors.

I've posted significant DD on this one in the past. When things take time, I continue to do my research and look at the reasons why I purchased my investment. I started small when I initiated my position and have added more significantly when it was taken down to just above $10. I have warrants. There is a video here and a lot of other great information:

https://cccis.com/about/investor-relations/

I think if you run the numbers you'll see it has been a great strategy, especially for someone that is a skilled trader/investor. Simple risk/reward most of the time

$PACE impressive growth base. Creative

Posted by fundamentalvalues on 22nd of Apr 2021 at 11:40 am

$PACE impressive growth base. Creative use of AI, lots to note from the presentation. Also info on the diverse population using the service and experts involved. 

Goldman is hilarious. Calling buys on overbought assets and sells on undervalued ones. I think we all know the reason why they do what they do, but somehow they still operate for years and years like this. I want to see disclosure if they are buying shares after downgrading something or selling with they say buy after something is up a lot. Ridiculous and shameful. Saw something published the other day that more regulation/disclosure was going to be required in this regard. I'll believe it when I see it. No position. 

$PACE Excellent update, growth, and

Posted by fundamentalvalues on 22nd of Apr 2021 at 11:20 am

$PACE Excellent update, growth, and earnings due in May..on track to close this quarter: 

Nerdy Posts Analyst Day Presentation, Provides Update on Business Wed April 21, 2021 11:50 AM|Business Wire|About: PACE, PACEU

Active Learners Increase 67% in First Quarter of 2021ST. LOUIS--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Nerdy on April 20, 2021 held an analyst day and provided an update on its business in connection with its planned business combination with TPG Pace Tech Opportunities (PACE).The Company has posted the analyst day presentation, which provides an overview of the Company’s business, growth strategy and financial profile, to its website. As part of the presentation, the Company announced that active learners increased 67%, online sessions jumped 186%, and sessions taught per active expert grew 60% in the first quarter of 2021. The Company expects to release first quarter financial results in early May.

The Company expects the business combination to close in the second quarter of 2021, after which the combined company will operate as Nerdy Inc. and be listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol “NRDY.” 

Full analyst day presentation here from April 20th: https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5e888db5701c090efa2df1c2/t/607f481c16317b52dbdadf0e/1618954330416/Analyst+Day+Presentation+%28April+20%2C+2021%29.pdf

I have warrants and can't believe I was able to buy so low. Massive upside for a patient investor. 


I agree Steve. Henrik is doing all the right things. Amazing it is back to $12s here. I have no position. Owned it prior for a big run into the $20s via warrants. They took it down to $8s after the merger at that time before the blast higher. Nice volume on the reversal candle yesterday. 

Yes, and with small caps being weak it hasn't helped. I doubled my position in calls for January. 26 RSI here is hilarious given the fundamentals. Let's see. 

a 72 RSI here, terrible risk/reward if not long from lower prices already

I think the other thing that people miss is the time and effort that goes into managing money. Having some individual stuff to play is great for some quick money, it is just how much time do I really want to put into monitoring things? I'm personally better off buying significant dips and holding for larger gains. Or doing some of the leveraged SPY trades. Of course, I look at things every year, and my situation, if I should re-balance, etc. But why not have someone like Cathie or other solid funds be a place I can confidently invest. Then go back to enjoying life. As is often pointed out here, there are all types of strategies represented by members on the site, traders, people working jobs with 401ks, and everything in between. 

The most important thing to me is having a strategy that I can "live with and believe in". After I made those significant dip buys near long term supports, I went back to living my life. No need to watch the market every second of the day for me. There is something here on the site for everyone. This is the first post on the community and well worth the read if you haven't and worth a re-read: 

Top Down Approach Discussion and how to View BPT - Click on Title

Posted by steveon 13th of Jun 2020 at 01:48 pm

Title: Top Down Approach Discussion and how to View BPT - Click on Title

Ciovacco Historical Perspective Charts

Once again, the above video link provides an overview referencing current stock market conditions relative to similar past readings.   This would be most relevant for position investors (such as retirement accounts) to monitor on a weekly basis.  This is NOT a forecast just data points at this time.  Continue to keep an open mind and respect the message of the market.

Markets are fluid and subject to change as we all know - key is to establish a methodology that fits with your beliefs.   You can also incorporate a hybrid approach with your portfolio by position investing certain funds for longer term (accepting volatility until EVIDENCE changes) and dedicating other funds to short term trading.  Those are decisions for each individual.  If you have yet to formalize an investing/trading approach please take some time to formalize a template - you can always adjust but it's best to have something in place.  From there, you should formulate a PLAN that entails your objectives.  Once a plan is in place, then you can refine down to which specific securities you want to invest and/or trade.  This is a TOP DOWN approach that should be enacted PRIOR to looking for trades.   Just like a Football team(or any sports team) - the General manager has a vision/approach on how he/she wants to build a team. Then he/she hires a coach to devise a scheme around those players to maximize their talents.  Next,  the coach puts into place a weekly game plan (making necessary adjustments) before finally selecting specific plays.  

How does BPT come into this picture?  Think of BPT like a consultant/assistant coach  who helps to make your job easier along the way.   We provide daily analysis of several markets which helps to provide some guidance as to how we see things.  We also spend a considerable amount of time providing tips and educational examples to help execute you plan.  Think of the DVT approach for swing trades and the nightly discussion of charts involving patterns and candlesticks, etc.    We also scan for and offer trade suggestions (ideas) that we believe are valid setups and we take time to review the triggered setups in the following days.  Partake in only the ideas that fit into your plan and simply ignore ones that don't.  Finally, we spend time posting relevant comments and numerous charts every day in the trading community relating to what transpiring during that trading session and updating trade ideas.  

I agree with you and added to my long term ARKK holdings when we got close to the 200 day last time. I expect to passively double my money in the next 5 years investing with Cathie. That is her model, she only invests in things where she can get a particular growth rate over the next five years and able to buy at a healthy discount to that growth. The old money manager guys hate her because she has smoked them performance wise. I say if you can't beat em, join em. 

She's had the odds stacked against her her whole career. Was such a good move when she left Alliance Bernstein. She got good doing what she does because they wouldn't give her a seat to share ideas in meetings. All the regular ideas were taken credit for, so her process became about finding things that nobody knew about. She's also proven lately that she is willing to adapt if/when things change putting some other large cap holdings in the fund in lieu of cash that are solid performers. 

$VGAC another insane opportunity. I

Posted by fundamentalvalues on 1st of Apr 2021 at 10:29 am

$VGAC another insane opportunity. I loaded warrants in the $1.70s. Near cash trust value and they do $400 million in revenue and growing. Richard Branson knows how to invest I think. Will be the ticker "ME" upon merger. 23andMe is the company https://www.23andme.com/      I participated in the last run from $10 to $18 via warrants and now I'm back. I may need to start a service giving out all these gems   

DGNR is another one with superior fundamentals. Read and reread the information when the market acts ridiculously. It will rise when it does, just like THBR did. The risk/reward is insanity here for DGNR. Massive opportunity

Thanks Steve, Looks like we are adding 3,972.89 to the gaps as well to monitor

Great buying opportunity if/when any pullbacks happen..of course didn't have to worry about that if you were buying under or at $10 cash trust value. Recent price targets of $17 & $20 by analysts. Check my prior dd. This one is solid. David A from Skyworks is involved here. The CEO has built a great business the last 10 years and now has entry into a difficult to enter auto market. Doesn't matter what companies win, Indie Semiconductor will supply them. And the more technology advances, the more money they make per car. I like what the CEO said about being agnostic to the industry and that they will supply the winners. So much to like with a $2.5 billion backlog. Merger date should be coming this month. 

$SPX a gap to monitor

Posted by fundamentalvalues on 1st of Apr 2021 at 08:41 am

$SPX a gap to monitor at 3,958.55 from Tuesday's close. 

A gem from the newsletter,

Posted by fundamentalvalues on 1st of Apr 2021 at 08:34 am

A gem from the newsletter, statistics table since 1950. If this holds true, I would say the sectors that got temporarily out of favor like tech and biotech, will have proven to be incredible dip buys. The QQQ seasonality is lining up here 20 years as well. There is no reason to believe these probabilities would not follow, though I know anything is always possible. I say that because the market has been very mechanical this year. 

My UUP calls have been on fire, great trade. Note that I give these BEFORE the rallies start and when nobody wants them. I often hear crickets or get laughed out of the room when my entries are near the bottom

I sold UWMC a bit back when it had its run to $12+. Certainly getting more interesting now again with the dividend yield. I didn't dig in on the offering they did, but they are a massive company. 

LOTZ is big on my radar again too now in the $7 area. Incredible update from THBR yesterday (will be Indie Semiconductor soon), I've posted significant dd on that one here. The CEO was on Mad Money, well worth the watch:   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hRvYNVOjA1w

The biggest challenge right now is there are literally a few handfuls worth of undervalued, high quality spacs as it seems the market grouped them all together just as it did months back. The cream will rise again once the algos stop laying on them, people sell for cash trust value near $10, and big money loads up on what they want. It is what it is, a lifetime buying opportunity in select names. 

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