I think 5386 (min) on Monday and then high alert for reversal.
Next level for me 5323 where there should be a lot of demand
(we'll see if it can overcome the negative gamma). The next level
below that is almost exactly 100 points at 5233. However, if it
goes there, the technical bull case for the market is pretty much
shredded. Nothing that QE can't fix with nominal sleight of hand,
but it will take that to reverse this market if it breaks too much
lower.
Negative gamma is a nice change of scenery. More people that buy
protection is more futures that dealers have to sell to offset the
risk of the puts they just went short in the transaction.
SPY volume by price not exactly following price down. I
can't believe VWAP is currently at 544.75. Just a generic move to
test the underside would be over a 1% rally from here.
Market could drop a lot (20% wouldn't be unusual from here) but
people are on to the game now so I don't think that will
happen...maybe 10%. The only thing that stops the nominal march
higher in asset prices going forward is someone on the FED saying
something like hey everyone, we have decided QE is just money
printing (monetizing the debt...same as printing money) to save the
wealthy asset owners while it steals from the middle class and
poor. So, after careful consideration about the harm we're causing,
we've decided it's no longer an appropriate monetary policy tool.
Then markets would drop 80%....so it won't happen.
Maybe this relatively new phenomenon (24 months?) of
consistently positive headline numbers that the market keys on,
followed months later by revisions that the market largely ignores
andare always in the same direction are a result of massive
improvements in technology, especially data science, over the last
decade? It's unreasonable to think is just the Gov cooking
the books
Jerome Powell has to be so annoyed with BS BLS data at this
point. There were revisions in the report in the report - no need
to say which direction anymore.
GBTC 39 minute signal sent out right out the top (normal /
expected). Now have the 1st pullback after the signal, which I
think is the ideal entry for these types of signal
entries.
NFLX looking close to breaking out of coil (3min). Looks
decent on longer timeframes. Coil can go either way. I'm leaning
long but waiting for confirmation.
TSLA on fire today. Probably at least 3 or 4 sovereign
wealth funds operations with orders to short it into oblivion, if
at all possible. Sovereign wealth guys get squeezed also.
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
If Monday opens higher, watch
There will be a follow through on Monday as many ...
Posted by bthefnd on 6th of Sep 2024 at 04:49 pm
If Monday opens higher, watch out below!! I will fade the living you know what out of pop Monday morning.
*Unless they announce QE Sunday night...which has happened before. In that case, I'll be buying the gap higher (in BTC and SPY)
was down 20....took partial profits
Market still dropping. Looks like it's going to get 5387 ...
Posted by bthefnd on 6th of Sep 2024 at 04:37 pm
was down 20....took partial profits from short at the close
Market still dropping. Looks like
Posted by bthefnd on 6th of Sep 2024 at 04:35 pm
Market still dropping. Looks like it's going to get 5387 (50 Fib) out of the way in after hours or premarket trading
Check out the MACD cross
Posted by bthefnd on 6th of Sep 2024 at 04:23 pm
Check out the MACD cross on the SPX daily. Too bad we didn't just make a minor new high - complicates things with the divergences.
I think 5386 (min) on
There will be a follow through on Monday as many ...
Posted by bthefnd on 6th of Sep 2024 at 04:18 pm
I think 5386 (min) on Monday and then high alert for reversal. Next level for me 5323 where there should be a lot of demand (we'll see if it can overcome the negative gamma). The next level below that is almost exactly 100 points at 5233. However, if it goes there, the technical bull case for the market is pretty much shredded. Nothing that QE can't fix with nominal sleight of hand, but it will take that to reverse this market if it breaks too much lower.
Negative gamma is a nice
Posted by bthefnd on 6th of Sep 2024 at 02:43 pm
Negative gamma is a nice change of scenery. More people that buy protection is more futures that dealers have to sell to offset the risk of the puts they just went short in the transaction.
SPY volume by price not
Posted by bthefnd on 6th of Sep 2024 at 01:04 pm
SPY volume by price not exactly following price down. I can't believe VWAP is currently at 544.75. Just a generic move to test the underside would be over a 1% rally from here.
If SPY finds some footing
Posted by bthefnd on 6th of Sep 2024 at 12:08 pm
If SPY finds some footing in this general area and gets a mean reversion bounce, the FinTwit world is going to explode with calls for inverse H&S.
Market could drop a lot
Posted by bthefnd on 6th of Sep 2024 at 11:29 am
Market could drop a lot (20% wouldn't be unusual from here) but people are on to the game now so I don't think that will happen...maybe 10%. The only thing that stops the nominal march higher in asset prices going forward is someone on the FED saying something like hey everyone, we have decided QE is just money printing (monetizing the debt...same as printing money) to save the wealthy asset owners while it steals from the middle class and poor. So, after careful consideration about the harm we're causing, we've decided it's no longer an appropriate monetary policy tool. Then markets would drop 80%....so it won't happen.
Maybe this relatively new phenomenon
Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug) +142K vs +164K Est.
Posted by bthefnd on 6th of Sep 2024 at 09:08 am
Maybe this relatively new phenomenon (24 months?) of consistently positive headline numbers that the market keys on, followed months later by revisions that the market largely ignores andare always in the same direction are a result of massive improvements in technology, especially data science, over the last decade? It's unreasonable to think is just the Gov cooking the books
Jerome Powell has to be
Posted by bthefnd on 5th of Sep 2024 at 08:35 am
Jerome Powell has to be so annoyed with BS BLS data at this point. There were revisions in the report in the report - no need to say which direction anymore.
GBTC 39 minute signal sent
Posted by bthefnd on 4th of Sep 2024 at 01:51 pm
GBTC 39 minute signal sent out right out the top (normal / expected). Now have the 1st pullback after the signal, which I think is the ideal entry for these types of signal entries.
NFLX looking close to breaking
Posted by bthefnd on 4th of Sep 2024 at 12:18 pm
NFLX looking close to breaking out of coil (3min). Looks decent on longer timeframes. Coil can go either way. I'm leaning long but waiting for confirmation.
BTC trying to push through
Posted by bthefnd on 4th of Sep 2024 at 12:02 pm
BTC trying to push through key level (15m)
TSLA on fire today. Probably
Posted by bthefnd on 4th of Sep 2024 at 10:31 am
TSLA on fire today. Probably at least 3 or 4 sovereign wealth funds operations with orders to short it into oblivion, if at all possible. Sovereign wealth guys get squeezed also.
JOLT *missed plus there was a
JOLTS in 2 minutes. Unfortunately, it's a BLS number. BLS ...
Posted by bthefnd on 4th of Sep 2024 at 10:01 am
JOLT
*missed plus there was a revision to previous numbers also. Any guesses on the direction of the revision?
JOLTS in 2 minutes. Unfortunately,
Posted by bthefnd on 4th of Sep 2024 at 09:59 am
JOLTS in 2 minutes. Unfortunately, it's a BLS number. BLS should really just change their names to BS.
NVDA - trying a short
Posted by bthefnd on 4th of Sep 2024 at 09:50 am
NVDA - trying a short here with a tight stop.
Out. That was a good way to start the day. Easy peasy short as price entered supply.
Canucks lowered rates
Posted by bthefnd on 4th of Sep 2024 at 09:46 am
Canucks lowered rates
UVXY puts - derivatives on
Posted by bthefnd on 4th of Sep 2024 at 09:44 am
UVXY puts - derivatives on leveraged derivatives? What could possibly go wrong? YOLO