Gents (do we have any ladies in this group anymore?) with the Chinese massive stimulus we have entered into an era that the world has literally never seen before. There has never been a period of globally coordinated currency debasement like we're seeing now. The global leaders have clearly decided that's the only viable solution for out of control global debt. Don't get caught on the wrong side! There's not going to be a second chance at this as they will destroy the middle class, whether they intend to directly or not. They mostly realize this and are telling themselves in the hallowed Halls of congresses around the world that they will make up for it with aggressive government programs to make things'fair'. We all know how that goes. just don't get caught on that side of it and find yourself subservient to the whims of Gov and completely dependent on their long term support.

yeah, that's definitely the short term target for me (without pnf). Above 200 is where breakout targets come into play. I meant to communicate that with the caveats that it may or may not break out

I'm being super conservative with measure move on MSTR, if it breaks out (not guaranteed, obviously). In reality, if it just matches the range, it could be as high as 300 and a lot of people predict 2x range for this type of breakout which would make it much higher.

For anyone that follows the Mark Minervini types out there, a perfect outcome here is a consolidation with contracting volume. If they volume falls off a cliff early next week and it goes sideways, it's a very bullish setup. VCP

https://traderlion.com/technical-analysis/volatility-contraction-pattern/

MSTR teasing a breakout that measures to at least $225.

Please keep up the BRRR! Peasants be damned (kidding but this is kinda awesome if you have lots of assets...no brains needed...just throw a capital dart and watch it inflate)

Banana Zone close!! Love it.  BRRR

Haha. Yeah, not gonna happen on Bloomberg or even Fox. They are all pushing the same narrative and it doesn't include the revisions. BTW - there's a massive revision due....after the election. True story. It's widely expected to erase all of the gains. 

Bloomberg going all in rah rah Kamala cheerleader mode with today's jobs print (they believe this one just like they believe every one previously...as long as it was positive). Beating the living crap out of the "you should be happy" drum...hard and incessantly.  They're calling it a GRAND SLAM. 

For you dividend hounds, it pays about 4.5%

MLPX - I have posted about this one many many times but it's worth another post. If nothing else, I'm reminding myself that I should have been longer than I have been....but it doesn't look close to done yet. 

Meh, when in the last decade plus has war been anything but good or just a shoulder shrug for US equity markets? It's not a thing anymore. Printing overcomes everything (they could print to support hurricane relief efforts but they wouldn't be helping their team so it's going to others instead)

SPX 5m - hard to bet against the money printers but bear flag looks about ready to play out.  Of course, it's October and we're trying to save democracy...so there's probably a PPT (Plunge Protection Team) looking at the exact same thing. 

Yawn day? The bond market is crashing. If you're in a standard 60/40, you're not yawning today - you're like WTF JPOW?!? Save my ass.

And the Fed doesn't control the long rate only if you are sticking to their academic powers and powers specifically granted to them by the Constitution and Congress. Enter QE. A power not specifically granted but taken and used by the Fed anyway.  This effectively gives them power for yield curve control over and above the short rate...and it looks like it's going to be taken out of mothballs here again soon (BTFP was the last QE...that we know of). 

IBIT update - that setup yesterday played out perfectly so far. It's setting up the same way again today (tight range) but today it's consolidating at the top of the range sooner than it did yesterday. After today's move it's sitting just under a gaggle of anchored VWAPs and the 5 day SMA. if we get another range break higher, it could really start to move as it would likely also mark the beginning of wave 5 (2 - 4 hour timeframe). 

That acronym is a little to close for comfort (M-I-L-?).  It definitely resulted in a double take when I first read it   

The Fed is trapped. There are only two ways out - deflationary spiral (which will crush the wealthy asset owners) or run inflation hot for 10 to 15, maybe 20 years with rates below actual inflation (which is theft and typically results in the destruction of the middle class). Granted, they are both crappy options, but there is no 3rd choice.  The one they will pick is completely obvious, has been obvious and the choice was already made quite openly at the last Fed meeting.  One tricky part is that they can NEVER admit that they have made the choice because the global bond market would lose it's mind and then option 1 becomes much more painful (even though everyone knows it's their only choice, it's different when you say it out loud).

Rich people like to pontificate about how the deflationary option is not just bad because it's the option that would hurt the wealthy the most, they claim it would hurt everyone almost equally, if not worse. "Trickle down" is normally a bad word, but even rich hippies turn into raging trickle down theorists when the idea of taking the medicine and deflating their asset prices comes up. 

Yep. But give it a little time today. See CME Fed watch tool. Market pulled in lemmings that think good data is good (and real).  Under the surface you have many regional bank CEO's and underwater CRE peeps going fu*k, fu*k, fu*k...we're screwed.  Do I think the Fed will let it play out? No. I think they will cut into hot prints until they bail out the banks...but lemmings buying markets and fed funds futures are making their job difficult. They're probably going to have to backdoor the problem, at least in part, with QE, which they won't call QE, but it will be another massive "facility."  For example, another BTFP which is QE just about any way you look at it, but we were told many times it's "not QE" 

This environment is designed to make you feel crazy. Stick to your principles - you're not crazy 

Union got their deal. Banana Zone cleared for takeoff. Market not initially euphoric but they'll figure out it's just funny money anyway so the only thing that matters is keeping it flowing.

QQQ and IBIT still running AH

You can lead a horse to water...but can you get them to borrow, spend and invest after you burned the living shit out of them for the last few years? That is the China question.