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SPY 15m - 5 waves

Posted by bthefnd on 2nd of Jan 2025 at 01:02 pm

SPY 15m - 5 waves nearing completion

IBIT options trading today. Massive

Posted by bthefnd on 19th of Nov 2024 at 12:28 pm

IBIT options trading today. Massive volume already. Huge call skew. 

SPY 1hr - As would

Posted by bthefnd on 31st of Oct 2024 at 03:41 pm

SPY 1hr - As would be expected, the EW algo relabeled this timeframe from a bullish wave 5 to a wave 3 down.  

Interestingly (to my puny brain), the 2 hr is still holding on to the wave 5 look. I can't imagine it can take much more downside before it also relabels...but I don't have a expert level understanding of all the EW rules.  

Correction: the purple shading on the 5 (second chart) means the algo thinks the wave completed (otherwise it stays green). So now it's looking for an ABC or a series of ABC's. 

Again, read for detail. Your narcissism blinds you to the fact that I wasn't referring to your triangle...even after I clarified that I was referring to 100's of triangles in the FinTwit community.  Everything I post is about you....and yet none of it actually is.  

Interesting - just a couple of days ago I went into Chrome to see if I could make ChatGPT my default search engine, but it wasn't available in the list of options.  I do think GOOG could be in trouble once that changes. The search experience is MUCH better with LLM's...ChatGPT is even good with shopping queries. 

Again, read for detail before swinging - just last night I posted "I'm not wired that way" in reference to Michael Saylor.   But hey, I guess at least I know you don't read for detail so no need to take your jabs seriously. 

MSTR - if their auditor

Posted by bthefnd on 31st of Oct 2024 at 02:17 pm

MSTR - if their auditor quits, I'm going to cash in all accounts (all positions, not just MSTR)    

Yep, I am that guy. That is what will happen until the pace of money printing declines (bold because changing pace does not equal stopping). We will only have flash crashes until the currency debasement part of the equation changes....and that's just because there are still humans trading and they don't understand how currency debasement will definitely, 100%, zero probability of another outcome, inflate asset markets, no matter what else you throw at them (see Argentina or Weimar Republic for examples).

I know you're busy, but if you read for detail before swinging, you'll see my post earlier today where I predicted that there would first be a break down out of Steve's triangle before it reversed hard to go higher (so far so good on the break, now just waiting for a trigger on the reversal). There are no certainties in markets, only probabilities - I just think the scenario I outlined has the highest probability (granted, not by much in this particular case).

This will probably get me shadow banned by the BPT censors again. Oh well. Now I double check every day and post logged in and then check logged out to see if my posts are actually showing up or if I've been cut off again...then move to discord if I'm cut off. Cool trick tbh - It turns out I was posting into the void for a few days back with my old account before I finally figured out it wasn't actually posting.     

I'm implying exactly what I said. I guess to be more specific, the 100's of X and YouTube accounts I've seen post about the triangle are scrambling to redraw it. 

BofA - institutional selling

SPX - everyone scrambling to

Posted by bthefnd on 30th of Oct 2024 at 06:19 pm

SPX - everyone scrambling to redraw triangle to contain this swoon   

Imagine having the cajons' to borrow billions and invest it all in bitcoin?  Mind-blowing. I'm not wired that way. 

Does anyone know the terms of MSTR bond offering or have any experience with previous MSTR bond offerings?  Seems like an interesting play. I listened to a Saylor podcast a few weeks ago and he also plugged it as a way to get exposure with a significantly scaled down vol profile.

I pasted this question into ChatGPT: 

BTC - Looks like MSTR

Posted by bthefnd on 30th of Oct 2024 at 04:46 pm

BTC - Looks like MSTR gonna raise money to buy 42 billion in one shot. Wow!  Saylor probably going to be the richest dude in the world at some point...or maybe his kids.

Looks like spot ramped on the back of that tweet. How could it not? 

Totally agree. I hope it happens. But the effect on the markets I think will likely catch a lot of people by surprise as they mostly don't seem to know the outsized influence of Gov spending on the stock market. If it happens (I still think doubtful), I will be a big cheerleader and also short a lot of select names that I know will be in trouble given my previous experience as a Fed Gov contracting officer.

Doubtful mostly on DOGE with teeth implementation. No comment on elections and I wouldn't risk a lot to bet on either outcome at this point. 

D.O.G.E.   Want to see

Posted by bthefnd on 30th of Oct 2024 at 04:27 pm

D.O.G.E.   Want to see a market panic? If Trump gets elected and they show signs of actually following through with Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by Elon...and it has teeth...the market is going to PANIC. 

SPX - "I'd guess this

SPX 30 Coiled

Posted by bthefnd on 30th of Oct 2024 at 04:15 pm

SPX - "I'd guess this plays out with a spike down out of coil followed by a sharp reversal to all time highs." ....wait for it. Has to trigger1st. 

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