After that 4.1% sticky CPI at 10:30 today, I think market would explode higher on a hot PPI tomorrow (Hot, but not too hot). Inline probably ok, but anything weak and we might give up today's gains. KRE not at all happy about the market pricing 50 bps down to 15% after today's print, but that could explode higher with a weak PPI (weak PPI was the canary in the coal mine with China). By the time the market figures out that a refinancing cliff is approaching quickly and we need to allow some hyperinflation if we want to survive it, we could be at 5700 or higher.

Hot PPI would probably also invert the 10/2 yield curve again. Nice move in that direction today as bonds get sold. 

SkyNet definitely winning today. Algos fighting the algos - the algos with the most capital firepower pushing below and above obvious levels to force people who think they're trading mechanically to do what they want.  A lot of traders using Fibs these days? Cool. Push it above the 100% and force all those rule followers into a bullish switch (then get ready to trap them again). 

BtheFnD

And buy inflation. Inflation party going on right here - a celebration that lasts throughout the year! 

"Sticky CPI" came in at 4.1% which looks like it was a big relief to the market which has to be worried the US is going to follow China down the deflationary path. The chart looks to be flattening now as opposed to continuing to fall. The print marked the bottom today, along with a demand zone. 

Only a fool would say what you just said.

*Before you get yourself all wound up and offended, notice that I simply paraphrased what you replied to my post and repeated it back. Doesn't seem likely how they want the dialogue on here to go...or maybe they do? 

Atlanta Fed just came in with a hot inflation print. Market found some footing...at least temporarily. 

Keep in mind how the game has been played recently. Doesn't seem like Gov data is real but market trades off it anyway. However, markets generally want higher asset prices so it favors that side (which is why it always wants more damaging stimulus so badly). Anyway, last time PPI was before CPI. That was kind of strange and market ran on PPI and essentially ignored CPI the next day. This time CPI is first but the  right PPI tomorrow could get the stimulus addicts frothing at the mouth again and spike us back above all of today's downside. 

Payout dates are when DRIP programs execute so you know there's going to be at least some passive bid incoming at the beginning of that day

PFE has to be sweating any possibility of Kennedy in the next admin. Someone might get Boeing'd in a hotel parking lot again if the race tightens up. 

Definitely. This is a very confusing time in history to be analyzing markets.  Financial assets (equities, bonds, etc) can't help but rise nominally with the entire world monetizing their debt (with a few exceptions, e.g. China). Company values haven't really risen but share prices have across the board and it's hard not to keep going (if price is going up and value is flat or going down, you get multiple expansion...which is what we've seen over the last couple of years and what should be expected when currencies are losing their value). But that doesn't hold as true for commodities. Their prices are based much more on supply and demand. So, what to do with an equity being inflated by debasing currency but still mainly tracks a commodity (or a basket of commodities)?  It's not an easy call - have to mix the ideas of the currency it's priced in along with the commodities it tracks. 

Yep. And zoom out to daily and draw some lines. Plus wave 5 with MACD divergence and H&S target achieved.  No trigger yet.

Hard not to listen to recession talk (wich would take FCX down), but I have a feeling if I asked AI "is it possible for asset prices to fall a lot with the current rate of money printing?"  it might reply something like "Are there winters on the sun?" 

All you need to know 

Feels like a horse race between IWM, QQQ and SPY. IWM pulling away down the stretch, but there's still time. First one to negative on the day wins. 

Apple Intelligence?     

Hey Siri, how is it possible you still can't answer questions after being on my phone for so many years?  Siri: I'm sorry, I don't understand the question.  Me: thanks anyway, Siri - at least you have the best voice in the business (lucky for you, ScarJo said no!) 

Friday I said I would fade the living you know what out of SPY if it opened higher Monday.  Got the trigger - about to close most of the trade already. 

Lower inflation means lower earnings means lower markets. Dirty tricksters having you believing you're rooting for something positive   

Have you guys heard about the upcoming rule changes to S&P that will affect structure? Apparently there will be an upper limit to the concentration level of any single unit / company.  Kind of a big deal in a passively managed world  but not getting much press. I don't have a handy conspiracy theory ready to explain why not, but it likely contributed to last week's volatility.

I think it's absolutely the right direction, which is kind of shocking in itself (I'm not used to markets making decisions that will benefit the masses over the dominant giants)

I guess I didn't land the plane - this rule change should make the FANG, MAG 7, etc style investment / trading styles less effective. Of course, the upper limit could be some ridiculous number just thrown out to appease regulators...then all bets are off (well, not off...all bets back on largest cap names that will get bigger simply because of passive flows)

How do you feel about this being a potential C wave? 

Magic - it's bouncing after going .5 points below the 50 Fib. Or it's skynet trading....probably the latter. 

Boom. 5387 / 50 Fib tagged. Now maybe start to short term bottom?