I, like most others here at Breakpointtrades, trade stocks
short-term and benfit immensely from the technical wisdom on offer.
But I also carry a long-term position on gold because in my
opinion, the US $$$ and the US fiscal situation is nothing more
than a house of cards waiting to collapse.
Waiting to be proved correct (paid off), however, has been
painful. I call it "The frustration of knowing you're right
and suffering the consequences anyway". Quite similar to
carrying a position based on fundamentals when the technicals are
saying don't do that.
I concur: there's untold manipulation going on in the precious
metals arena. Too much at stake for those with the power to
allow things to play out the way we know they should. How is
it that Bernanke can hint at the possibility that maybe, somewhere
down the road, the Fed will stop buying Treasuries, and as a result
of that garbage, the gold market breaks down? Do people think
for themselves?
Quite the farce...especially if one stops to think about what
they have doing anyway: that is, buying their own debt. Sort
of like me using a credit card to deposit money to my checking
account so I can pay my bills. One day the music stops!!
I bet no one has suggested this: check out northern Vermont
(Burlington area), especially if you like to be outdoors. Green
Mountains and Lake Champlain at your fingertips, Adirondacks
nearby. Small city and university town. Plenty of
sports and culture (theatre, arts, restaurants, etc.).
Beautiful, stress free environment; little traffic, clean
air. Wonderful place to raise kids; excellent schools.
You can buy a 2700 sq ft 3-4 BR house for $400,000.
Not sure if you work or if you're retired...but if the latter,
all the better since costs of many things in VT are 10-20% less
than big cities. If you're looking for employment however,
that's what impacts the cost of living: wages are only 60% of what
they are in Boston, NY or Washington...which makes it a high cost
of living area. People tend to forget that when assessing
cost of living anywhere; there are 2 sides to the equation: what
things cost and what one can earn.
If earning a high salary is not a must and cold, long winters
are not an impediment, this may be an option you'd want to
consider.
Congressional deal
does nothing to resolve the country's financial problems and
little for the middle class other to insure their paycheck will be
less:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100348254
Obama debt ceiling statement:
"Limit Increase not up for debate...":
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/02/obama-debt-ceiling-fiscal-cliff_n_2394164.html
which includes: "While I will negotiate over many things, I will
not have another debate with this Congress about whether or not
they should pay the bills they have already racked
up," Amazing that raising the debt
limit is viewed as paying one's way. Sort of like raising a
credit card limit when someone can't write the check.
Took a position late on Friday at $1.22 when the stock moved
above its 200 ma and 8 ema on slightly higher volume. Need
some guidance on where to place a stop. Friday's low ($1.12)
seems too wide and would represent an 8.9% loss should we
experience a downdraft in the market today.
greed and fear in the market. Unfortunately for those in
it, fear has it in a death grip at the moment. Look out below
if last month's support at $505.75 gives way.
the following message appeared on my account with
Fidelity:
Beginning on January 18, 2013, in accordance with new
FINRA Rule 5350, all Stop Loss and Stop Limit orders will be
triggered by a transaction/print rather than by the Bid/Ask quote.
Any Good Til Cancelled orders remaining open on or after January
18, 2013, will trigger off of a transaction/print rather than the
quote.
Does anyone have an idea how this will
impact us (if at all) as traders?
being bearish on gold is now the contrarian indicator, CNBC's
reporting notwithstanding.
In my circle of life, which includes running a major law firm
and managing the firm's retirement plan, I know hundreds of people
from all walks of life. Only two others besides me have ever
mentioned they invest in gold or gold shares, while nearly all have
significant positions in popular stocks and mutual funds...mainly
through their retirement account.
To imply that the gold/precious metals trade is either crowded
or overbought (or has been at any time over the past decade)
because its now covered by CNBC or is too popular, is simply
absurd. Ask yourself how many individuals you know who have
piled into the gold trade over the years; probably can count them
on one hand. I'd be surprised if even one tenth of one
percent of all the retirement money in the world is invested in the
precious metals trade.
Clearly, gold, silver and the mining stocks have been weak, but
its certainly not because everyone has already piled in. I'd
say it has more to do with manipulation and the unfathomable short
position being carried by a number of the mega banks. Too
much at stake for them to allow gold to find its natural level.
The answer to the world's financial woes is for the creditors to
write down or write off the debt? Who will write off our debt
(the debt of the US), and if they do, will they still accept US
dollars as payment for goods?
Gold should be
rallyingtoday on news that a deal
to "avoid going over the fiscal cliff" is in the
works! After all, that means more shenanigans and
manipulation around the debt ceiling and deficit (ie., more
printing of money or pushing out of the debt), not an honest
effort to tackle these problems. Instead, Gold is sinking on
the news.Wouldn't gold be less
attractive if we actually "went over the fiscal cliff" and began
the long process of living within our means as a
country?
Just keep in mind that instruments of leverage are a double
edged sword. When you put up $5,000, as you say, through one
of these instruments, you are in fact risking more than when I put
up $5,000 to buy shares in a stock. Here's why: We always
have to keep in mind we could be wrong and we may lose the trade.
So, if I put up $5,000 on a stock and the position moves
against me by 1.5%, I lose $75.00; but if you're wrong by 1.5%, you
LOSE $1,000. In effect, you are putting more at risk than I
am (risking $1,000 to make $1,000).
Your play offers greater leverage than mine, which is great if
your right (and yes, you do need to be right more often than I do).
My approach is different. Having been a professional
horseplayer, I see value in risking little to make a lot.
Stops help me do that since my downside is limited while my
upside is open-ended.
Anyway, best of luck trading whatever you're most comfortable
with.
given that you trade indices exclusively, Morgan.
Different strokes for different folks.
As an aside, I'm curious: Since an index tends to move
slower (in percentage terms) than most individual stocks, do
you find you either have to place a much larger "bet"
or hold an index for a longer period of time (compared to
trading individual stocks)? If not, wouldn't you have to
be right a much higher percentage of the time to make make
good money?
Never in the history of mankind has a stock garnered a greater
following or more attention, which makes me want to stay far away
from the tree. Aren't there better opportunities elsewhere?
It seems to me the bread and butter of making $$$ via ideas on
this website has always resided with the lower-priced stocks that
make quick pops and/or drops. Besides, AAPL seems to be a
crowded trade with 90% of investors already aboard in one form or
another.
To me, AAPL is nothing more than a proxy for the entire market,
and although I don't play ETFs or indices, I suspect those who want
to place a bet on market direction have better choices
elsewhere...unless, of course, you are an deluded to the core and
believe AAPL is headed right back to $700+by year-end.
I suspect there are a number of members out there like me, that
is: we hold gold stocks for the long term for a variety of reasons
(usually related to some form of distrust of the US dollar and/or
US financial system...a contrarian play of sorts), but TRADE all
other stocks based upon charts and technical indicators.
Obviously, we've been right about the price of gold the past 5-7
years as its risen manyfold, yet we haven't been able to capitalize
on that viewpoint (in fact, we've taken a beating), as we wait and
the miners fail to follow through to the upside like we all
envision.
Personally, I'm not in a position to buy a significant quantity
of physical gold and silver since the majority of money available
to me for investment is held within a brokerage account inside my
retirement plan. So I try to make the most of my options by
trading other equities short term based upon charts, etc. while
holding a core position in mining stocks for the longer term.
The former has served me well thanks to this website but the
latter has not...and I suspect many BPT members have experienced
something similar, so my question is this:
Is the correlation gone and is it time to ditch the notion that
one can make a leveraged play on the price of gold and silver by
purchasing mining stocks for the long run? In other words,
should the precious metal mining stocks be treated no different
than any other equity, and if so what's a good strategy for
unwinding the position I have on?
And one final question for Steve or Matt: If that's the case,
why do you spend an inordinate amount of time covering that sector
compared to any other sector out there? Or is there benefit
to investing in some mining stocks for the longterm?
Just got off the computer after viewing an hour-long
Fidelity webnar entitled: "How the Election May Effect Your
Benefits Strategies and How to Invest for 2013 and
Beyond"
Had to sit in given my role as administrator of our firm's
profit sharing/401K plan. What a waste of time! The
same optimistic drivel you hear from talking heads on CNBC.
You never, ever hear them express even the remote possibility
of financial markets dropping precipitously.
Here's the summary (honest, I couldn't make this up):
-"Most people are not skilled enough to manage their
money"
-"Taxes are apt to go up"
-"Buy Fidelity's target date funds (but learn what they're all
about first)"
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Did something similar....
PPHM keep an eye on
Posted by RichieD on 4th of Jan 2013 at 12:24 pm
Bought in @ $1.21 early December, sold entire position @$1.36, then re-bought @ $1.22 several days ago.
Matt: I'm in on PPHM @ $1.22. Thoughts on a trailing stop?
PPHM keep an eye on
Posted by RichieD on 4th of Jan 2013 at 11:58 am
Comforting words to gold investors from Jim Sinclair
Posted by RichieD on 4th of Jan 2013 at 11:54 am
http://www.jsmineset.com/2013/01/03/the-federal-reserve-has-no-practical-option-to-end-qe/
I'm 100% with you, zwyss.
Metals are very weak because?
Posted by RichieD on 4th of Jan 2013 at 07:22 am
I, like most others here at Breakpointtrades, trade stocks short-term and benfit immensely from the technical wisdom on offer. But I also carry a long-term position on gold because in my opinion, the US $$$ and the US fiscal situation is nothing more than a house of cards waiting to collapse.
Waiting to be proved correct (paid off), however, has been painful. I call it "The frustration of knowing you're right and suffering the consequences anyway". Quite similar to carrying a position based on fundamentals when the technicals are saying don't do that.
I concur: there's untold manipulation going on in the precious metals arena. Too much at stake for those with the power to allow things to play out the way we know they should. How is it that Bernanke can hint at the possibility that maybe, somewhere down the road, the Fed will stop buying Treasuries, and as a result of that garbage, the gold market breaks down? Do people think for themselves?
Quite the farce...especially if one stops to think about what they have doing anyway: that is, buying their own debt. Sort of like me using a credit card to deposit money to my checking account so I can pay my bills. One day the music stops!!
If you don't mind cold winters.....
California going over the cliff
Posted by RichieD on 3rd of Jan 2013 at 06:15 am
I bet no one has suggested this: check out northern Vermont (Burlington area), especially if you like to be outdoors. Green Mountains and Lake Champlain at your fingertips, Adirondacks nearby. Small city and university town. Plenty of sports and culture (theatre, arts, restaurants, etc.). Beautiful, stress free environment; little traffic, clean air. Wonderful place to raise kids; excellent schools. You can buy a 2700 sq ft 3-4 BR house for $400,000.
Not sure if you work or if you're retired...but if the latter, all the better since costs of many things in VT are 10-20% less than big cities. If you're looking for employment however, that's what impacts the cost of living: wages are only 60% of what they are in Boston, NY or Washington...which makes it a high cost of living area. People tend to forget that when assessing cost of living anywhere; there are 2 sides to the equation: what things cost and what one can earn.
If earning a high salary is not a must and cold, long winters are not an impediment, this may be an option you'd want to consider.
Financial house of cards still intact.......
Posted by RichieD on 2nd of Jan 2013 at 09:30 am
PPHM
Posted by RichieD on 31st of Dec 2012 at 06:03 am
Took a position late on Friday at $1.22 when the stock moved above its 200 ma and 8 ema on slightly higher volume. Need some guidance on where to place a stop. Friday's low ($1.12) seems too wide and would represent an 8.9% loss should we experience a downdraft in the market today.
Geithner Warns US Hits Debt Ceiling Monday...
Posted by RichieD on 26th of Dec 2012 at 04:54 pm
Just reported on CNBC.com: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100340142
Wow; this is surprising news and could have a huge impact on sentiment. I thought this was coming a few months down the road???
Sweet. Thank you Steve!
STP nice move and trade comments
Posted by RichieD on 19th of Dec 2012 at 01:26 pm
Really starting to learn from both you and Matt. Much appreciated.
Thanks for this one, Matt.
STP nice move and trade comments
Posted by RichieD on 19th of Dec 2012 at 01:22 pm
Bought yesterday and have moved my stop up three times so far today; currently set at $1.22.
APPL...the quintessential expression of
Posted by RichieD on 14th of Dec 2012 at 03:05 pm
greed and fear in the market. Unfortunately for those in it, fear has it in a death grip at the moment. Look out below if last month's support at $505.75 gives way.
When raising stops on several stocks today....
Posted by RichieD on 12th of Dec 2012 at 02:11 pm
the following message appeared on my account with Fidelity:
Beginning on January 18, 2013, in accordance with new FINRA Rule 5350, all Stop Loss and Stop Limit orders will be triggered by a transaction/print rather than by the Bid/Ask quote. Any Good Til Cancelled orders remaining open on or after January 18, 2013, will trigger off of a transaction/print rather than the quote.Does anyone have an idea how this will impact us (if at all) as traders?
Sorry, I'm not buying the notion that...
Technician on Fox just now says Gold range 1715 down to 1640/1650. Too many are asking how high it can go in his opinion which is bearish.
Posted by RichieD on 6th of Dec 2012 at 11:29 pm
being bearish on gold is now the contrarian indicator, CNBC's reporting notwithstanding.
In my circle of life, which includes running a major law firm and managing the firm's retirement plan, I know hundreds of people from all walks of life. Only two others besides me have ever mentioned they invest in gold or gold shares, while nearly all have significant positions in popular stocks and mutual funds...mainly through their retirement account.
To imply that the gold/precious metals trade is either crowded or overbought (or has been at any time over the past decade) because its now covered by CNBC or is too popular, is simply absurd. Ask yourself how many individuals you know who have piled into the gold trade over the years; probably can count them on one hand. I'd be surprised if even one tenth of one percent of all the retirement money in the world is invested in the precious metals trade.
Clearly, gold, silver and the mining stocks have been weak, but its certainly not because everyone has already piled in. I'd say it has more to do with manipulation and the unfathomable short position being carried by a number of the mega banks. Too much at stake for them to allow gold to find its natural level.
You're kidding, right?
What am I missing??
Posted by RichieD on 28th of Nov 2012 at 02:24 pm
The answer to the world's financial woes is for the creditors to write down or write off the debt? Who will write off our debt (the debt of the US), and if they do, will they still accept US dollars as payment for goods?
What am I missing??
Posted by RichieD on 28th of Nov 2012 at 01:48 pm
Thanks, Morgan. As you say,
Why the obsession with AAPL??
Posted by RichieD on 17th of Nov 2012 at 10:36 am
to each his own.
Just keep in mind that instruments of leverage are a double edged sword. When you put up $5,000, as you say, through one of these instruments, you are in fact risking more than when I put up $5,000 to buy shares in a stock. Here's why: We always have to keep in mind we could be wrong and we may lose the trade. So, if I put up $5,000 on a stock and the position moves against me by 1.5%, I lose $75.00; but if you're wrong by 1.5%, you LOSE $1,000. In effect, you are putting more at risk than I am (risking $1,000 to make $1,000).
Your play offers greater leverage than mine, which is great if your right (and yes, you do need to be right more often than I do). My approach is different. Having been a professional horseplayer, I see value in risking little to make a lot. Stops help me do that since my downside is limited while my upside is open-ended.
Anyway, best of luck trading whatever you're most comfortable with.
Fair point...
Why the obsession with AAPL??
Posted by RichieD on 17th of Nov 2012 at 07:34 am
given that you trade indices exclusively, Morgan. Different strokes for different folks.
As an aside, I'm curious: Since an index tends to move slower (in percentage terms) than most individual stocks, do you find you either have to place a much larger "bet" or hold an index for a longer period of time (compared to trading individual stocks)? If not, wouldn't you have to be right a much higher percentage of the time to make make good money?
Why the obsession with AAPL??
Posted by RichieD on 16th of Nov 2012 at 06:33 pm
Never in the history of mankind has a stock garnered a greater following or more attention, which makes me want to stay far away from the tree. Aren't there better opportunities elsewhere?
It seems to me the bread and butter of making $$$ via ideas on this website has always resided with the lower-priced stocks that make quick pops and/or drops. Besides, AAPL seems to be a crowded trade with 90% of investors already aboard in one form or another.
To me, AAPL is nothing more than a proxy for the entire market, and although I don't play ETFs or indices, I suspect those who want to place a bet on market direction have better choices elsewhere...unless, of course, you are an deluded to the core and believe AAPL is headed right back to $700+by year-end.
Important question about the gold mining stocks
Posted by RichieD on 15th of Nov 2012 at 07:08 am
I suspect there are a number of members out there like me, that is: we hold gold stocks for the long term for a variety of reasons (usually related to some form of distrust of the US dollar and/or US financial system...a contrarian play of sorts), but TRADE all other stocks based upon charts and technical indicators.
Obviously, we've been right about the price of gold the past 5-7 years as its risen manyfold, yet we haven't been able to capitalize on that viewpoint (in fact, we've taken a beating), as we wait and the miners fail to follow through to the upside like we all envision.
Personally, I'm not in a position to buy a significant quantity of physical gold and silver since the majority of money available to me for investment is held within a brokerage account inside my retirement plan. So I try to make the most of my options by trading other equities short term based upon charts, etc. while holding a core position in mining stocks for the longer term. The former has served me well thanks to this website but the latter has not...and I suspect many BPT members have experienced something similar, so my question is this:
Is the correlation gone and is it time to ditch the notion that one can make a leveraged play on the price of gold and silver by purchasing mining stocks for the long run? In other words, should the precious metal mining stocks be treated no different than any other equity, and if so what's a good strategy for unwinding the position I have on?
And one final question for Steve or Matt: If that's the case, why do you spend an inordinate amount of time covering that sector compared to any other sector out there? Or is there benefit to investing in some mining stocks for the longterm?
Incredible....
Posted by RichieD on 14th of Nov 2012 at 04:17 pm
Just got off the computer after viewing an hour-long Fidelity webnar entitled: "How the Election May Effect Your Benefits Strategies and How to Invest for 2013 and Beyond"
Had to sit in given my role as administrator of our firm's profit sharing/401K plan. What a waste of time! The same optimistic drivel you hear from talking heads on CNBC. You never, ever hear them express even the remote possibility of financial markets dropping precipitously.
Here's the summary (honest, I couldn't make this up):
-"Most people are not skilled enough to manage their money"
-"Taxes are apt to go up"
-"Buy Fidelity's target date funds (but learn what they're all about first)"