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COP

Posted by DigiNomad on 17th of Feb 2024 at 07:42 pm

COP

Posted by DigiNomad on 17th of Feb 2024 at 05:53 pm

SPX 1h - closed right

Posted by DigiNomad on 16th of Feb 2024 at 04:12 pm

SPX 1h - closed right on a rising AVWAP and rising 200 after potentially completing an ABC. Could be primed to launch on Tuesday. 

    took me a hot second to figure that one out...

  

I do think a close below VWAP, currently 4997, would be  (another) red flag.  But, we have a long list of red flags at this point and the market just crashes higher. 

A lot of it is cash in money market funds that wouldn't be appropriate in equities. Think about the cash hordes on the balance sheets of just the Mag 7.  That money sits in money market funds and generates significant cash flow (these days). 

OPEX pin.  Market had its' mind made up before the day started, IMO.  

I'm wrong if we close much below 5K. 

Dealer Gamma

Posted by DigiNomad on 16th of Feb 2024 at 03:25 pm

SKEW - the crush continues

Posted by DigiNomad on 16th of Feb 2024 at 03:18 pm

SKEW - the crush continues today. I'm not the only one that is noticing it. Got a lot of play in nightly newsletters yesterday. 

The Lawfare continues - "In

Posted by DigiNomad on 16th of Feb 2024 at 03:12 pm

The Lawfare continues - "In addition to monetary penalties, James is seeking to permanently ban Trump from New York's real estate industry and sharply limit his ability to do business in the state. She is also seeking five-year industry bans for Trump's two adult sons, Don Jr. And Eric"

ETH - I wouldn't normally

$BTCUSD ....

Posted by DigiNomad on 16th of Feb 2024 at 03:06 pm

ETH - I wouldn't normally say something like this (you guys know me) but I think the next 20% higher in ETH is easy money....and 100% to touch ATH wouldn't shock me. 

Market is down .29%. Lol. I guess our standards for pullbacks have changed! 

Do you have a similar

$BTCUSD ....

Posted by DigiNomad on 16th of Feb 2024 at 02:59 pm

Do you have a similar one for ETH? This is the point in the cycle it normally outperforms BTC. 

If you're trading plan is to trade the daily and weekly timeframes, having an idea about the macro overview and potential catalysts can help you decide when a swing trade has a high probability of working out. If you're taking a medium term swing now with a 7% stop loss in place, your risk reward probably isn't that great.  But, if you firmly believed or had inside information about 6 trillion potentially being deployed, maybe you loosen your stops and average down.  Shorter term traders have less or no need for a macro overview. 

SPX - nice move down.

Posted by DigiNomad on 16th of Feb 2024 at 02:48 pm

SPX - nice move down. Don't know if we can maintain momo on OPEX, but setting up for a potentially spicy Tuesday. 

Here, here. We're seeing it play out right in front of us in the stock market, but it's hard to spot when right in the middle of it. I posted about this yesterday. Stan might be poaching my posts   

My only argument would be that we have shifted to fiscal dominance now. The Fed is the tail being wagged by the dog at this point, IMO. 

Most of us haven't traded through a major inflationary cycle before. We expect weakness because we're accustomed to the deflation boogeyman. We're facing a different beast this time around. We're literally crashing up if you look at it from a standard deviation perspective, but we're used to crashing down. 

I've heard the "sidelines" theory debunked by quite a few people. Check out George Gammon or EuroDollar university on that topic. Apparently, most of that is institutional and it's not going anywhere near equities.

Most investors are all in, according to the stats. 

SPX (Oanda) - interesting to

Posted by DigiNomad on 16th of Feb 2024 at 02:23 pm

SPX (Oanda) - interesting to me how this version has an ABC look, but it doesn't pop out on the cash chart. Not sure exactly why, so I set alerts for both. Haha. 

Not getting the volume I had expected. I'm out. 

Exactly. This is why there

SPX 10m

Posted by DigiNomad on 16th of Feb 2024 at 01:48 pm

Exactly. This is why there have famously been lines for bread in hyperinflationary countries. People buy as much as they can today because they think it's going to be more expensive tomorrow. 

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