TikTok ban is hilarious - TikTok is threatening to sue over free speech violations and many Americans are losing it...including Elon Musk. Meanwhile, China doesn't allow American social media or Google and their version of TikTok's algorithm is wildly different than the one American kids are exposed to (wholesome and patriot programming vs completely the opposite). American Lemmings fighting to be allowed to be led off a cliff. 

Totally   

   - I upgraded one of my laptops to 64 GB RAM today. About an hour after I was done I smelled something weird.  Smelled sort of but not really like something burning, so of course I assumed I screwed something up in the laptop and went into panic tear down mode.  I got it apart (after bending the frame a bit because I was in panic mode) but didn't see anything really out of place, melting, burning, etc. I put it back together, turned it on and went outside to reset my smeller. I came back in and there was still a weird smell...but then I noticed it was stronger when I turned towards the kitchen from the dining room. Well, it turns out that the AIRBnB I'm staying in has a gas stove (I'm used to electric) and it was on with no flame!! Problem solved, but holy crap     

Tagged the trendline to the penny and rejected...for now. 1st attempt typically fails. 

My thesis has been that the market was frustrated by the Gov's inability to get Israel and Ukraine funding passed. Look at when the rally REALLY got moving back in the fall...right when Israel went into Gaza and the US passed the bill to fund their war. Market has another huge chunk to work with now...

Broke the channel on the 15 if redrawn from the 16th forward. Still work to be done in the longer TF channel. 

NVO -  probably a scalp short here, but I'm going to take a shot long if it pulls back to session VWAP.  $124.40 would be a perfect bear trap area and it's just above VWAP.

Now that I think about it, its pretty dumb of me to think that Fed Gov spending is slowing when they just passed a massive spending bill over the weekend. Much of that will flow to big tech through direct and indirect Gov contracts. Also, no change at the border which means continued huge off budget / deficit spending. 

Earnings - I seem to remember that weeks with big tech reporting in a downtrending market will typically run up right before or right after the reports and trap eager bulls. Often vicious traps.  This action right now feels like attempting to shake off the weak bull hands before the run - which is likely an ill fated run but could still be very profitable for traders. Market will always try and trap on both sides to the greatest extent possible.
*My assumption is the big tech earnings will CRUSH. Why wouldn't they since their biggest customer is the Fed Gov and they are not price sensitive?  The question is whether Gov spending is accelerating or flattening out. My guess is that the acceleration is at least slowing.  

Looks good. 2.5 Risk Reward to what looks like a conservative target. 

SPY Point of Control

  
OMG - that's the last thing we need. But still funny. 

LVPB - this is NOTwhat I would characterize as a bullish light volume pullback.  Volume levels are at previous climax levels now...and it would seem that we are too early in the trend for it to be done and at a climax phase (although most of us are expecting a bounce in the short term).  CTA's have been dumping big time. That particular chart was a GREAT signal and gave about a day's warning relative to the top.  But I think the whole topping process was just the big guys working their way out little by little so as to  not completely spook the market before they were ready, and then they let it go once they were positioned correctly.  All the major insiders were selling big time for the last couple of months. 

Yep, that has happened a lot in the past.

Traders are not going to want to go home with any long exposure with a potential nuclear retaliation cycle actively playing out. I'm hearing that Israel is not saying anything about being done yet. It's sometimes their style to keep tight lipped even when they are done. I suppose it leaves enemies guessing...which can be good unless the enemy has a credible pre emptive capability.

Negative gamma kicking in now. 4980 is the second biggest level for OPEX (5K had the most going into today) .  

Note that we're only just under session VWAP because of all the price action overnight.  The lower band (1 sigma) is at 4963. 

I've decided that they are less relevant but they still mark meaningful levels on my 23 / 5 charts because they are typically characterized by higher volume and larger price movements.  I've seen too many upside and downside targets achieved and gaps filled overnight (along with the corresponding price action that was expected) to think otherwise, but there's always going to be some disagreement on this point. 

Definitely filled on my end. I was trading it actively when it happened.  I'll never get why people ignore so much price action on an instrument that trades 23 / 5...but to each his own.

And what's this "cash" thing when referring to SPX?  Is there some way to buy SPX shares that I'm not aware of? I'm pretty sure it's only options, all the time, no matter if it's RTH, ATH or GTH. 

Blue light special - you can get  $500 right here for selling 4850 puts that expire tomorrow. Get em while they last (they were going for 1500 an hour ago so probably not long) 

SPX - I don't usually check this time of day, but we just hit session VWAP.

There were some PANIC option trades in the market over the last hour. I did sell a couple of people crazy panic insurance. Out already. For all I know Iran could counter attack before the market open tomorrow.