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This is not simply a "rising market" - here's something I researched and posted on X yesterday (please double check my results...I would be interested if I missed a comparable period).

I tried to find another time in history where SPX has gone 20 weeks without a touch of the 9 week EMA. I didn't spot any. I found a 16 week run in 2007, 18 in 1995, 11 in 1987 and 13 in 1971. It seems like we're currently breaking records - aka, experiencing asset hyperinflation.

If this isn't a bubble, then there has never been a bubble...mathematically speaking, based on simply finding a period that has ever compared to this one.

Bubbles can last a LONG time. I'm long as I can be because I'm scared to death that Yellen's inflation is going to eat me alive.  Bubbles pop when someone unplugs the compressor. When the spending slows, the market will slow. 

It's all Gov spending. Back it out of last year's GDP for yourself to check my rhetoric....the data is public. The checks have stopped going out to households for the most part, but they have still increased overall spending massively, not decreased since pandemic. Trying to say it's AI driven or because we're such a great country is completely missing the reality of the never before amounts of capital and liquidity dumped into the system.  

Watch this questioning of Yellen by Congress and make a point to note the increased levels of spending. It's insanity...and it is not likely to continue...which means there will be a hangover simply due to less stimulus.  

We are the neighbor with the shiny new toys who can barely sleep because he knows the credit card bill is going to be stifling.  It looks great on the outside, but it is debt financed (is that even a question?). It's so obvious that I'm not sure why the constant pushback and gaslighting from every corner. I guess it's political and people who bought into the pandemic and the response don't want to also see admit that it is still acting on the economy and not sustainable.  Now that it dominates the economy, a decrease in deficit spending will hit earnings hard...and I think we all know this pace of deficit spending is unsustainable. At this point, I think they're just going to go full blast to buy the election, if they can. After that, the brakes have to be applied.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x21GJbBe6yU


I think the vol signal on GOOG played out. That wick down was it, IMO. I find those trades need pre set targets. They often don't last long and it's a counter trend trade after super strong price action. 

My TV rolls to a

Posted by DigiNomad on 22nd of Mar 2024 at 04:12 pm

My TV rolls to a recording of the Bloomberg open when the market closes every day. They were in full on party mode going into today. According to every guest so far, everything's going up, without question and it's not a bubble.  Party on! 

MU - someone else noticed...and drew it much better than I did. 

Every day is OPEX these

Posted by DigiNomad on 22nd of Mar 2024 at 03:40 pm

Every day is OPEX these days...and most days are Gov bond auction days. I never would have guessed a time would come when they would be the two dominant factors in the market. 

TNX and TLT - market

Posted by DigiNomad on 22nd of Mar 2024 at 03:07 pm

TNX and TLT - market likely to struggle unless yields return to signaling inflation still spiraling higher.  Potentially scary gaps below if inflation runs dry with analysts projecting something like 12% earnings growth (very dependent on broad inflation in many cases)

Posted by DigiNomad on 22nd of Mar 2024 at 02:59 pm

Posted by DigiNomad on 22nd of Mar 2024 at 02:53 pm

KRE - the gift that

Posted by DigiNomad on 22nd of Mar 2024 at 02:40 pm

KRE - the gift that keeps giving today...on the short side. 

Trap sprung. Now below the

MNMD Updated View

Posted by DigiNomad on 22nd of Mar 2024 at 02:29 pm

Trap sprung. Now below the lower trendline and looking like a decent short setup....on a retest.

MSOS - looks like I'm

Weed ripping again...

Posted by DigiNomad on 22nd of Mar 2024 at 02:22 pm

MSOS - looks like I'm going to get stopped out, but it had a nice 2R setup and broke that triangle on expanding volume.  Probably should have waited for a close above that structure but then the reward to risk wouldn't have been attractive. 

I think it's going to

Weed ripping again...

Posted by DigiNomad on 22nd of Mar 2024 at 02:07 pm

I think it's going to be a very difficult industry - if you want to see if you have a green thumb, start with weed. If you can't grow that, you probably can't grow anything. Not great for commercial producers.  But I'm just trading :)

*Commercial producers would be fine if the Gov didn't see it as a huge source of revenue.  They basically assassinated the golden goose before it had a chance to lay any eggs. 

Ahh, gotcha. Do you have

Weed ripping again...

Posted by DigiNomad on 22nd of Mar 2024 at 01:57 pm

Ahh, gotcha. Do you have a favorite? I think I'm going to take a shot in MSOS.  Breaking out of coil on the 3m. 

WEED - went to trade

Weed ripping again...

Posted by DigiNomad on 22nd of Mar 2024 at 01:56 pm

WEED - went to trade it and...what a mess! Is it on the Toronto exchange or are you trading the US ETF that isn't Canopy Growth?  Why not MSOS? 

I don't know about accelerating...yet. But it's got a wave 2 look (MA ribbon color change count and under sell cycle) and it looks like it wants to start wave 3. 

Have to stay super bullish

QQQ 30 From Last Night

Posted by DigiNomad on 22nd of Mar 2024 at 01:44 pm

Have to stay super bullish as long as consolidating sideways. Rising channel lines above or market would have inflated like a nuclear powered hot air balloon already, IMO.  No one's talking about SKEW but I show it popping 9% yesterday, which is insanity on top of already insane levels. 

BROS - they floated shares yesterday priced at $34 when the stock was trading at $36       Not my Bros anymore.

It does explain the weird print AH straight to that level on every time frame.  First for me.  I once got my ass really handed to me in OVTI (they made camera sensors for cell phones that were just emerging). I was over my skis long expecting to go flat into the close when there earnings were scheduled. Instead, they announced "accounting irregularities"before the open and delayed earnings indefinitely.  It was a bloodbath. 

He would barely make it into IWM, much less be considered a big corporation.  The judgement is probably 50% of his net worth and not much of that is liquid (I think we all know part of his brand management involves saying he's worth more than he actually is).  They haven't figured out penalties high enough to punish large corporations like AAPL, GOOG and MSFT. They simply budget for it and easily absorb what we consider massive judgements - it's part of their business plan. 

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