I first came into Kondratieff Cycle when studying the Elliott
Wave books. I believe these cycles are part of nature and far
beyound human civilization. There are Ancient Chinese books dated
to thounsands of years ago about the 4 year, 10 year and 60 year
cycles.
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 4th of Jan 2023 at 03:23 pm
David Ryan said start of Jan to about the 3rd week is the most
tricky time of a year and he prefers to stay light. Now I
understand why he says that lol.
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 3rd of Jan 2023 at 11:33 am
last friday there was a demark 9 on daily TLT - but it is an
imperfect one, meaning daily 9 did not make a lower low
agaist the low of day 6&7. According to Tom, price will most
likelt come down again to make that lower low before a meaningful
bounce.
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 3rd of Jan 2023 at 11:30 am
Matt, what's your preferred count for this abc? a small wave 4
before a lower low & bigger bounce, or a wave 2 and we start
trending strongly down. Thanks
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 2nd of Jan 2023 at 04:03 pm
My observation is the impact so far is uneven on different types
of properties: some significant pressure on detached houses in the
2-4M range (probably the 6% mortgage rate is killing lots of
demand). The other weak area is condos in Downtown, they just never
fully came back after covid, and this year the government tightened
foreign buyers policy even more. There were lots of international
students buying condos now they are shut down from the market.
Other areas still appear pretty strong, like townhouses and smaller
houses below 2M. At least so far I do not see too much pressure
yet.
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 2nd of Jan 2023 at 03:04 pm
On percentage basis I would argue CM (Imperial bank of Canada)
is the most vulnerable to the housing market - which is closer to
52 week lows compared to TD and Royal (both have more international
exposure).
Regarding the housing bubble, I am personally not in the camp of
crash scenario. Maybe a further 20% correction. Toronto and
Vanvouver have become literally international money laudering
centers so affordibility is not a countable measurement. I came
from other countries so I think a lot of Americans, Canadians or
Australians don't fully understand how popular their countries are,
to forgeign professionals & wealthy immigrants. They all have
their own issues, but man other countries are doing far worse (just
look at Japan, Europe etc).
I would love to see a a 30% further down in Canadian banks. At
that point thet should be yielding very well. Because of the
chartered banks system, there are no outside competition to these
big 6 banks. They should come back to all time highs shortly after
the resession ends.
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 2nd of Jan 2023 at 12:42 am
John Roque (used to be a market technician for Soros fund
management) talked about the H&S pattern on KRE recently. He
has a target of $20 on Bank of America.
Canadian Banks also have lots of shorting patterns developing.
If Banks do break hard that's a bad sign for the general market. I
personally think the next leg down could have more damage on the
economic sensitive value sectors versus growth.
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 1st of Jan 2023 at 09:54 pm
Last year when Matt first mentioned the possibility of retracing
the entire post covid bubble I thought it was nonsense. But now
look at the air pocket below if 2020 Sep low is not hold - wow
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 28th of Dec 2022 at 09:02 am
$ES still looks like some triangle forming? If still wave 4 we
will get demark 9 on daily today - perfect one if day 9's low is
lower than day 6 and 7.
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
Cramer...hmmmm Cramer quotes Tom Demark too
I know not many interested in Larry Williams the technician ...
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 5th of Jan 2023 at 11:03 am
Cramer...hmmmm
Cramer quotes Tom Demark too though. Tom is good.
I won't say Larry is lousy but just so-so level.
He has a free websinar
I know not many interested in Larry Williams the technician ...
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 5th of Jan 2023 at 10:50 am
He has a free websinar today at 1PM for 2023 outlook.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QjP5n7qfk2g
I found him to be one of the overrated analysts/traders though, to be honest.
Interesting chart related to Matt's
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 4th of Jan 2023 at 11:12 pm
Interesting chart related to Matt's topic on interest rates:
http://www.longwavegroup.com/market/charts/_pdf/Kondratieff_Cycle_Chart.pdf
I first came into Kondratieff Cycle when studying the Elliott Wave books. I believe these cycles are part of nature and far beyound human civilization. There are Ancient Chinese books dated to thounsands of years ago about the 4 year, 10 year and 60 year cycles.
longwavegroup.com
403 Forbidden
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 4th of Jan 2023 at 05:24 pm
David Ryan said start of
Market on 12/16 closed at 383.27, it’s now 1/4/23 and ...
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 4th of Jan 2023 at 03:23 pm
David Ryan said start of Jan to about the 3rd week is the most tricky time of a year and he prefers to stay light. Now I understand why he says that lol.
how do individual investors buy
FWIW – Dan Niles 2023 SPX -20%, Picks three-month T-bill, ...
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 3rd of Jan 2023 at 01:52 pm
how do individual investors buy 3-montn t-bill?
last friday there was a
TLT nice bounce
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 3rd of Jan 2023 at 11:33 am
last friday there was a demark 9 on daily TLT - but it is an imperfect one, meaning daily 9 did not make a lower low agaist the low of day 6&7. According to Tom, price will most likelt come down again to make that lower low before a meaningful bounce.
Matt, what's your preferred count
SPX comments
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 3rd of Jan 2023 at 11:30 am
Matt, what's your preferred count for this abc? a small wave 4 before a lower low & bigger bounce, or a wave 2 and we start trending strongly down. Thanks
$VIX looks to open +7%
5/10 ES Levels June Contract (ESM24)
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 3rd of Jan 2023 at 08:22 am
$VIX looks to open +7% - not sure if I am seeing the correct number
My observation is the impact
John Roque (used to be a market technician for Soros ...
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 2nd of Jan 2023 at 04:03 pm
My observation is the impact so far is uneven on different types of properties: some significant pressure on detached houses in the 2-4M range (probably the 6% mortgage rate is killing lots of demand). The other weak area is condos in Downtown, they just never fully came back after covid, and this year the government tightened foreign buyers policy even more. There were lots of international students buying condos now they are shut down from the market. Other areas still appear pretty strong, like townhouses and smaller houses below 2M. At least so far I do not see too much pressure yet.
On percentage basis I would
John Roque (used to be a market technician for Soros ...
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 2nd of Jan 2023 at 03:04 pm
On percentage basis I would argue CM (Imperial bank of Canada) is the most vulnerable to the housing market - which is closer to 52 week lows compared to TD and Royal (both have more international exposure).
Regarding the housing bubble, I am personally not in the camp of crash scenario. Maybe a further 20% correction. Toronto and Vanvouver have become literally international money laudering centers so affordibility is not a countable measurement. I came from other countries so I think a lot of Americans, Canadians or Australians don't fully understand how popular their countries are, to forgeign professionals & wealthy immigrants. They all have their own issues, but man other countries are doing far worse (just look at Japan, Europe etc).
I would love to see a a 30% further down in Canadian banks. At that point thet should be yielding very well. Because of the chartered banks system, there are no outside competition to these big 6 banks. They should come back to all time highs shortly after the resession ends.
John Roque (used to be
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 2nd of Jan 2023 at 12:42 am
John Roque (used to be a market technician for Soros fund management) talked about the H&S pattern on KRE recently. He has a target of $20 on Bank of America.
Canadian Banks also have lots of shorting patterns developing. If Banks do break hard that's a bad sign for the general market. I personally think the next leg down could have more damage on the economic sensitive value sectors versus growth.
Thanks Matt. QQQ looks like
Last year when Matt first mentioned the possibility of retracing ...
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 2nd of Jan 2023 at 12:35 am
Thanks Matt. QQQ looks like a bear flag on your monthly chart as well.
Last year when Matt first
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 1st of Jan 2023 at 09:54 pm
Last year when Matt first mentioned the possibility of retracing the entire post covid bubble I thought it was nonsense. But now look at the air pocket below if 2020 Sep low is not hold - wow
Try some ginger tea Matt.
ES futures - A's showed up at the intra day low perfectly
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 28th of Dec 2022 at 01:11 pm
Try some ginger tea Matt. It's very good for stomach.
We got the perfect 9
$ES still looks like some triangle forming? If still wave ...
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 28th of Dec 2022 at 09:36 am
We got the perfect 9 on QQQ/COMPQ daily made a slight lower low
$ES still looks like some
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 28th of Dec 2022 at 09:02 am
$ES still looks like some triangle forming? If still wave 4 we will get demark 9 on daily today - perfect one if day 9's low is lower than day 6 and 7.
QQQ and COMPQ on day
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 27th of Dec 2022 at 02:42 pm
QQQ and COMPQ on day 8 of demark 9. Tomorrow if we make an intra day new low lower than the low of Dec 22, a perfect 9 set up will occur.
KRE massive H&S. Not fun
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 16th of Dec 2022 at 01:56 pm
KRE massive H&S. Not fun for the market direction.
NAAIM at 71, highest since
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 15th of Dec 2022 at 04:57 pm
NAAIM at 71, highest since August