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FUTU following through

Posted by matt on 6th of May 2024 at 09:41 am

UNG followed through

Posted by matt on 6th of May 2024 at 09:39 am

I updated the sell in May and go away stats spreadsheet, the stats always amaze me for their simplicity and how much of a difference it makes

Basically, the markets have made the vast majority of their gains in one 6 month time frame of the year (typically mid Oct/Nov - to end of April)

From 1952 - present. The sell in May and go away, without the MACD filter you buy on November 1st, and sell on April 30th the next year.

using the standard MACD settings you look for an earlier buy starting from Oct 16th, instead of waiting for Nov 1st, if the MACD crosses above its signal line you take the long.

for exits you start looking for a MACD cross from April 21st onward. 

Statistics: 

- Best 6 months:  starting with $10,000, this turned into $2.85 million

- Worst 6 months : starting with $10,000 this turned into $7254!  Basically after 75 years you lost $2800! While in the other 6 months your $10K turned into $2.8M!

Weekend Newsletter and Youtube Video, Sunday May 5th, 2024

Posted by matt on 5th of May 2024 at 05:18 pm

Youtube video finally uploaded - apparently Youtube had an outage, tons of people were complaining about their videos taking forever to upload

Youtube Video  Weekend Newsletter Sunday May 5th, 2024     - watch in full 1080 resolution on tablet or desktop NOT your phone

PLEASE leave a like and comment, helps the Youtube Algorithm to get out stuff more visible - I appreciate the support!

Weekend Newsletter Sunday May 5th standard Webpage Format  - contains all the dynamic chart links

market is nearing a major inflection point

Posted by matt on 5th of May 2024 at 02:52 pm

nice rally off the lows, but now the market is nearing a major inflection point where price will either form a lower high and turn back down or bust through important resistance and go to a new high:  On SPX 50 day SMA, ATR at 5170, 76.4% and 78.6% Fibs at 5191 and 5200 respectively, and downtrend line. We are also now in May, which is the start of the weaker time of the year

KISS Indexes

Posted by matt on 5th of May 2024 at 01:04 pm

weekly KISS, price bounced off the weekly ATR's near those weekly STS levels, remember we have the weekly KISS charts in the tables as well

https://breakpointtrades.com/sts_weekly/?search=BPT_basket 

on the daily charts, price running right into the underside of the ATR, that's a big level for the 'bulls' and an area were price could turn down unless price can strongly break through this level

on SPX price is right at the 50 day MA, and right below the ATR

IWM daily, 2hr

Posted by matt on 5th of May 2024 at 01:02 pm

_IWM - Chart Link- price perfectly to that 61.8% Fib where it pulled back some

IWM - Chart Link- 2hr - notice the open gap where price pulled back from, has not filled

also the 61.8% Fib 

Japanese Yen

Posted by matt on 5th of May 2024 at 12:49 pm

$JPYUSD - Chart Link- monthly has sort of wedge forming, with pretty good divergence

FXY - Chart Link- weekly tradeable ETF

Bitcoin 4hr

Posted by matt on 5th of May 2024 at 12:48 pm

$BTCUSD - Chart Link- while price fell through that support zone, it bounced off a small demand zone (was critical that it held that and it did)

URA sweet coil continues to form

Posted by matt on 5th of May 2024 at 12:47 pm

DBC commodities ETF

Posted by matt on 5th of May 2024 at 12:46 pm

DBC - Chart Link- monthly coil forming

DBC - Chart Link- daily, the bullish view would have a simple abc pullback to the broken trendline

DBA

Posted by matt on 5th of May 2024 at 12:46 pm

DBA - Chart Link- weekly, why did it pull back so much? look at the monthly

DBA - Chart Link- price pulled back right from a supply zone

SPX vs HYG

Posted by matt on 5th of May 2024 at 12:38 pm

$SPX - Chart Link- one positive is that HYG made new highs and has been leading.

notice at the market lows when the SPX had a lower low, HYG had a higher low i.e. a positive divergence

NYSI 9 EMA

Posted by matt on 5th of May 2024 at 12:37 pm

$NYSI - Chart Link- crossed the 9 EMA on Friday - otherwise a confirmation needs a candle that closes above Friday's highs

only Diginomd and Yellen know I'll

KISS systems heads up

Posted by matt on 3rd of May 2024 at 04:14 pm

only Diginomd and Yellen know

I'll investigate more this weekend as I have the newsletter, right now I have to run to an appointment

that said what I said yesterday still applies - this move could just be wave C and SPX is still not even back to the 61.8% Fib - and we are still below the ATR on the daily, so I'm still concerned we could stall there

then again the Algos Steve follows is looking for new highs

again I gotta run - because the systems are long, I am long some things too, I try to follow them. You guys either follow all or most of the system trades or you don't

the stops will be at the lows for these daily charts, later on I can post where the high performance intra day systems have stops  - as they went long 1 or a few days ago and thus have much tighter stops, and are intra day smaller time frames

KISS STS tables updated

Posted by matt on 3rd of May 2024 at 04:04 pm

sending emails now

https://breakpointtrades.com/sts_table/?search=BPT_basket 

SPX, SSO, SPY, UPRO, QQQ ended up going back long. So did the custom daily versions form the newsletters. 

will either be a whipsaw or a nice trade, you never know. 

UNG follow up

Posted by matt on 3rd of May 2024 at 03:10 pm

actually after investigating BOTH KISS

KISS systems heads up

Posted by matt on 3rd of May 2024 at 03:03 pm

actually after investigating BOTH KISS system versions will be going long at the close, the custom one and the default tables

Motley

KISS systems heads up

Posted by matt on 3rd of May 2024 at 12:38 pm

DigiNomad - the worst example for that used to be Motleyfool - just read this article from back in 2006, I  remember reading this at the time - this author calls TA voodoo and that we are all 'fooling' ourselves ( lol see what I did there?)  for trying to see patterns and drawing trendlines - just a worthless BS article

TA works, you have all seen it in action over many many years, that author was an idiot 

otherwise I think the best approach if to combine the two: technicals and fundamentals - for longer term traders - for day traders and short term trades technicals are fine - but if you are trying to swing position yourself into a company that you thing has fantastic fundamentals, then technicals are for your timing your entry

https://www.fool.com/investing/value/2006/04/10/technical-analysis-voodoo.aspx  

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