I updated the sell in May and go away stats spreadsheet, the
stats always amaze me for their simplicity and how much of a
difference it makes
Basically, the markets have made the vast majority of their
gains in one 6 month time frame of the year (typically mid Oct/Nov
- to end of April)
From 1952 - present. The sell in May and go away, without the
MACD filter you buy on November 1st, and sell on April 30th the
next year.
using the standard MACD settings you look for an earlier buy
starting from Oct 16th, instead of waiting for Nov 1st, if the MACD
crosses above its signal line you take the long.
for exits you start looking for a MACD cross from April 21st
onward.
Statistics:
- Best 6 months: starting with $10,000, this turned into
$2.85 million
- Worst 6 months : starting with $10,000 this turned into $7254!
Basically after 75 years you lost $2800! While in the other 6
months your $10K turned into $2.8M!
nice rally off the lows, but now the market is nearing a major
inflection point where price will either form a lower high and turn
back down or bust through important resistance and go to a new
high: On SPX 50 day SMA, ATR at 5170, 76.4% and 78.6% Fibs at
5191 and 5200 respectively, and downtrend line. We are also now in
May, which is the start of the weaker time of the year
on the daily charts, price running right into the underside of
the ATR, that's a big level for the 'bulls' and an area were price
could turn down unless price can strongly break through this
level
on SPX price is right at the 50 day MA, and right below the
ATR
I'll investigate more this weekend as I have the newsletter,
right now I have to run to an appointment
that said what I said yesterday still applies - this move could
just be wave C and SPX is still not even back to the 61.8% Fib -
and we are still below the ATR on the daily, so I'm still concerned
we could stall there
then again the Algos Steve follows is looking for new highs
again I gotta run - because the systems are long, I am long some
things too, I try to follow them. You guys either follow all or
most of the system trades or you don't
the stops will be at the lows for these daily charts, later on I
can post where the high performance intra day systems have stops
- as they went long 1 or a few days ago and thus have much
tighter stops, and are intra day smaller time frames
DigiNomad - the worst example for that used to be Motleyfool -
just read this article from back in 2006, I remember reading
this at the time - this author calls TA voodoo and that we are all
'fooling' ourselves ( lol see what I did there?) for trying
to see patterns and drawing trendlines - just a worthless BS
article
TA works, you have all seen it in action over many many years,
that author was an idiot
otherwise I think the best approach if to combine the two:
technicals and fundamentals - for longer term traders - for day
traders and short term trades technicals are fine - but if you are
trying to swing position yourself into a company that you thing has
fantastic fundamentals, then technicals are for your timing your
entry
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
FUTU following through
Posted by matt on 6th of May 2024 at 09:41 am
FUTU - Chart Link-
UNG followed through
Posted by matt on 6th of May 2024 at 09:39 am
UNG - Chart Link-
Updated Sell in May and go away statistics - with the MACD buy/sell filter
Posted by matt on 5th of May 2024 at 11:47 pm
I updated the sell in May and go away stats spreadsheet, the stats always amaze me for their simplicity and how much of a difference it makes
Basically, the markets have made the vast majority of their gains in one 6 month time frame of the year (typically mid Oct/Nov - to end of April)
From 1952 - present. The sell in May and go away, without the MACD filter you buy on November 1st, and sell on April 30th the next year.
using the standard MACD settings you look for an earlier buy starting from Oct 16th, instead of waiting for Nov 1st, if the MACD crosses above its signal line you take the long.
for exits you start looking for a MACD cross from April 21st onward.
Statistics:
- Best 6 months: starting with $10,000, this turned into $2.85 million
- Worst 6 months : starting with $10,000 this turned into $7254! Basically after 75 years you lost $2800! While in the other 6 months your $10K turned into $2.8M!
Weekend Newsletter and Youtube Video, Sunday May 5th, 2024
Posted by matt on 5th of May 2024 at 05:18 pm
Youtube video finally uploaded - apparently Youtube had an outage, tons of people were complaining about their videos taking forever to upload
Youtube Video Weekend Newsletter Sunday May 5th, 2024 - watch in full 1080 resolution on tablet or desktop NOT your phone
PLEASE leave a like and comment, helps the Youtube Algorithm to get out stuff more visible - I appreciate the support!
Weekend Newsletter Sunday May 5th standard Webpage Format - contains all the dynamic chart links
market is nearing a major inflection point
Posted by matt on 5th of May 2024 at 02:52 pm
nice rally off the lows, but now the market is nearing a major inflection point where price will either form a lower high and turn back down or bust through important resistance and go to a new high: On SPX 50 day SMA, ATR at 5170, 76.4% and 78.6% Fibs at 5191 and 5200 respectively, and downtrend line. We are also now in May, which is the start of the weaker time of the year
a few setups
Posted by matt on 5th of May 2024 at 01:07 pm
AUR - Chart Link-
BIIB - Chart Link-
DG - Chart Link-
NVT - Chart Link-
KISS Indexes
Posted by matt on 5th of May 2024 at 01:04 pm
weekly KISS, price bounced off the weekly ATR's near those weekly STS levels, remember we have the weekly KISS charts in the tables as well
https://breakpointtrades.com/sts_weekly/?search=BPT_basket
on the daily charts, price running right into the underside of the ATR, that's a big level for the 'bulls' and an area were price could turn down unless price can strongly break through this level
on SPX price is right at the 50 day MA, and right below the ATR
IWM daily, 2hr
Posted by matt on 5th of May 2024 at 01:02 pm
_IWM - Chart Link- price perfectly to that 61.8% Fib where it pulled back some
IWM - Chart Link- 2hr - notice the open gap where price pulled back from, has not filled
also the 61.8% Fib
Japanese Yen
Posted by matt on 5th of May 2024 at 12:49 pm
$JPYUSD - Chart Link- monthly has sort of wedge forming, with pretty good divergence
FXY - Chart Link- weekly tradeable ETF
Bitcoin 4hr
Posted by matt on 5th of May 2024 at 12:48 pm
$BTCUSD - Chart Link- while price fell through that support zone, it bounced off a small demand zone (was critical that it held that and it did)
URA sweet coil continues to form
Posted by matt on 5th of May 2024 at 12:47 pm
URA - Chart Link-
URA - Chart Link-
DBC commodities ETF
Posted by matt on 5th of May 2024 at 12:46 pm
DBC - Chart Link- monthly coil forming
DBC - Chart Link- daily, the bullish view would have a simple abc pullback to the broken trendline
DBA
Posted by matt on 5th of May 2024 at 12:46 pm
DBA - Chart Link- weekly, why did it pull back so much? look at the monthly
DBA - Chart Link- price pulled back right from a supply zone
SPX vs HYG
Posted by matt on 5th of May 2024 at 12:38 pm
$SPX - Chart Link- one positive is that HYG made new highs and has been leading.
notice at the market lows when the SPX had a lower low, HYG had a higher low i.e. a positive divergence
NYSI 9 EMA
Posted by matt on 5th of May 2024 at 12:37 pm
$NYSI - Chart Link- crossed the 9 EMA on Friday - otherwise a confirmation needs a candle that closes above Friday's highs
only Diginomd and Yellen know I'll
KISS systems heads up
Posted by matt on 3rd of May 2024 at 04:14 pm
only Diginomd and Yellen know
I'll investigate more this weekend as I have the newsletter, right now I have to run to an appointment
that said what I said yesterday still applies - this move could just be wave C and SPX is still not even back to the 61.8% Fib - and we are still below the ATR on the daily, so I'm still concerned we could stall there
then again the Algos Steve follows is looking for new highs
again I gotta run - because the systems are long, I am long some things too, I try to follow them. You guys either follow all or most of the system trades or you don't
the stops will be at the lows for these daily charts, later on I can post where the high performance intra day systems have stops - as they went long 1 or a few days ago and thus have much tighter stops, and are intra day smaller time frames
KISS STS tables updated
Posted by matt on 3rd of May 2024 at 04:04 pm
sending emails now
https://breakpointtrades.com/sts_table/?search=BPT_basket
SPX, SSO, SPY, UPRO, QQQ ended up going back long. So did the custom daily versions form the newsletters.
will either be a whipsaw or a nice trade, you never know.
UNG follow up
Posted by matt on 3rd of May 2024 at 03:10 pm
UNG - Chart Link-
actually after investigating BOTH KISS
KISS systems heads up
Posted by matt on 3rd of May 2024 at 03:03 pm
actually after investigating BOTH KISS system versions will be going long at the close, the custom one and the default tables
Motley
KISS systems heads up
Posted by matt on 3rd of May 2024 at 12:38 pm
DigiNomad - the worst example for that used to be Motleyfool - just read this article from back in 2006, I remember reading this at the time - this author calls TA voodoo and that we are all 'fooling' ourselves ( lol see what I did there?) for trying to see patterns and drawing trendlines - just a worthless BS article
TA works, you have all seen it in action over many many years, that author was an idiot
otherwise I think the best approach if to combine the two: technicals and fundamentals - for longer term traders - for day traders and short term trades technicals are fine - but if you are trying to swing position yourself into a company that you thing has fantastic fundamentals, then technicals are for your timing your entry
https://www.fool.com/investing/value/2006/04/10/technical-analysis-voodoo.aspx
fool.com
Technical Analysis Voodoo | The Motley Fool
You'll find most sensible investors focusing on the fundamentals.