More thoughts on yield curve

2-10  Yield Spread

Is DBA an opportunity with this dip to recient lows today?

Yes , as a veteran, thank you. Though I was based in Boston and  it is hard to compare to some other theaters,  I can say that not a single Russian bomber got through while I was  defending the town.

 I am beginning to more often use the term Liberty. Beginning in the sixties, I have seen the word Freedom  become synonymous  with  defiant freedom from responsibility and, is it just me or is that behavor getting worse.

If this chart doesn't signal  a turn down, it will have to violate a bunch of previous signals.

Two/Ten year bond spread chart.  This time is different but will probably end the same, eventually.

Two/Ten Year Spread

Market doesn't seem amazed by this news, stock is down.

Matt, What is the 'Sell in May' trigger for this year?

Yes, but the CCI has lingered at the bottom of it's range for some time in the past before the market topped, so while it is 'primed', we will probably have to see a break to the upside before thinking we have a top.  That said, the pattern of this cycle is unusual for the recent past.  It has continued up possibly due to the Trump effect, tax bill and the uncertainty it resolved, or whatever. 

Because some day it will be?   

Study of yield curve with possible triggers.  It is in position to create a trigger in the not too distant future.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24UST10Y-%24UST2Y&p=M&st=1987-10-25&id=p37536276603&listNum=1&a=595097890

Last I knew California had more solar than they could use and were paying neighboring states to take the excess capacity.  Unless they find a way to store it for nighttime use, I am puzzled what they are up to.  maybe it's for charging cars at work.

I have set up BPT using this and it is really convenient at staying connected. Is this feature common knowledge or am I just slow?

I just discovered something great in Chrome...   Open BPT then  in the Chrome menu go to More Tools then Add to Desktop.  With Open in Window checked  say oK.  Now you will have a single window browser shortcut on the desktop.  When it is running, opening up Chrome for any other reason will not interfere with that instance so no more accidentally closing BPT after reading the news or whatever. 

Using this tool one can create multiple shortcuts and produce a custom desktop layout that is reasonably rugged. 

On the shorter time frames including daily, I am a bit suspicious of using lonely tails to draw trend lines, but that is just my superstition. 

I am now believing that the Dow is a year long continuation triangle.  S&P is a messier pattern so since the Dow tends to be a defensive listing, I am thinking that is the prime indicator. 

Hope so, Bought UDN and SDS today, lets see how that works out.

Matt, Just discovered something that I think would be incredibly useful in the charts you share with us.  I often modify the setting on your charts in an attempt to see more back history.  I sent a request to Stockcharts for a feature similar to Schwab charts which is a slider to zoom in and out of date ranges.

Turns out SC has something like that, see their response below.  I think it would be very useful if BPT would standardize on this feature for chart generation, it works very well.

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Thank you for contacting us about Schwab Edge charts period slider. The closest tool we have is a "Date Slider."

First, adjust the "Range" setting to use "Select Start/End." Then, you can enter the beginning and end dates you want to see. use "Today" for the end date to show up to the latest trading day.

After you select that option, there is a horizontal "Date Slider." You can use that to easily control the beginning and end dates along with duration. Just click on the middle of the slider and move your cursor to move back and forth in time. Click on one of the ends and hold and drag your mouse in and out to adjust the duration.

Information about chart settings can be accessed by clicking on the "Instructions" link below the chart. There are also videos on chart settings here:
https://stockcharts.com/videos/#Using-SharpCharts

Interesting to consider what would need to happen to move to "E" on this ratio chart.  Dollar rally would probably need to end and/or there would have to be a considerable down side move in the SPX.

With Dollar volatility I am using this chart more often:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX:UDN&p=D&b=3&g=1&id=p90824569348&a=237674468&listNum=1

SPX chart with Dollar adjustment