Posted by jdaswani on 16th of Oct 2019 at 04:33 pm
Netflix beats by $0.04, reports revs in-line with U.S. subs
below guidance and international subs slightly above; guides Q4
subs, EPS and revs below consensus (286.28 +2.03)
Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $1.09 per share,
$0.04 better thanthe S&P Capital IQ
Consensus of $1.05; revenues rose 31.2% year/year to $5.25 bln vs
the $5.25 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.
Total paid net adds of 6.8m increased 12% year over year and
was an all-time Q3 record. Operating margin of 18.7% (up 670 bps
year over year) was above guidance due to timing of content and
marketing spend, which will be more weighted to Q4'19.
In the US, paid net adds totaled 0.5m in Q3 vs. our 0.8m
forecast, and year to date paid net adds are 2.1m vs. 4.1m in the
first nine months of 2018. Since our US price increase earlier this
year, retention has not yet fully returned on a sustained basis to
pre-price-change levels, which has led to slower US membership
growth. revenue growth has been accelerating as US ARPU increased
16.5% year over year in Q3.
International paid net additions totaled 6.3m in Q3, a 23%
increase vs. 5.1m in the year ago quarter, and slightly above our
6.2m guidance forecast. The US dollar strengthened vs. several key
currencies over the course of the quarter, which resulted in the
variance between our forecasted vs. actual international revenue.
International ARPU, excluding the impact of F/X, rose 10% year over
year. We're making strides in our key markets and, while we have
much more work to do in Asia in the coming years, we are seeing
encouraging signs of progress.
Co issues
downside guidance for Q4, sees EPS of $0.51
vs. $0.85 S&P Capital IQ Consensus; sees Q4 revs of $5.442 bln
vs. $5.51 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.
For Q4, we're expecting consolidated revenue to increase 30%
year over year with 9% streaming ARPU growth. We're forecasting
7.6m global paid net adds (vs. 9.5 mln estimates and 8.8m last Q4),
with 0.6m in the US and 7.0m for the international segment. This
implies full year 2019 paid net adds of 26.7m, down from 28.6m last
year. While we had previously expected 2019 paid net adds to be up
year over year, our current forecast reflects several factors
including less precision in our ability to forecast the impact of
our Q4 content slate, which consists of several new big IP launches
(as opposed to returning seasons), the minor elevated churn in
response to some price changes, and new forthcoming
competition.
Our long term outlook on our business is unchanged. We're on
track to achieve our full year 2019 operating margin goal of 13%.
In 2020, we'll be targeting another 300 basis points in operating
margin expansion, consistent with the annual margin improvement
we've delivered each year since 2017.
Competition: There may be some modest headwind to our near-term
growth, and we have tried to factor that into our guidance. In the
long-term, though, we expect we'll continue to grow nicely given
the strength of our service and the large market opportunity.
For the full year 2019, we're still expecting FCF of ~-$3.5
billion. With our quickly growing revenue base and expanding
operating margins, we will be able to fund more of our content
spending internally. As a result, we're expecting free cash flow to
improve in 2020 vs. 2019 and we expect to continue to improve
annually beyond 2020.
Starting with our Q4'19 earnings report in January 2020, we
plan to disclose revenue and membership by region
Posted by jdaswani on 15th of Aug 2019 at 09:19 am
For some reason, I cannot open last nights newsletter. every
time i hit the link, it take me to a page to resubscribe, I
have plenty of time on my subscription. can you please advise.
Clarification - I just went to systems tab - I noticed the
system is short as of 1/7/2018 - after the initial cover a few days
before - is this accurate - system short?
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Monthly charts bullish MACD -
We are officially in a breakout to all time highs ...
Posted by jdaswani on 30th of Oct 2019 at 03:18 pm
Monthly charts bullish MACD - Could be a nice year end rally coming
Netflix beats by $0.04, reports
Posted by jdaswani on 16th of Oct 2019 at 04:33 pm
Netflix beats by $0.04, reports revs in-line with U.S. subs below guidance and international subs slightly above; guides Q4 subs, EPS and revs below consensus (286.28 +2.03)
lowered Subscriber growth for Q4..
Posted by jdaswani on 16th of Oct 2019 at 04:31 pm
lowered Subscriber growth for Q4.. Beat on Q3
stockcharts down?
Posted by jdaswani on 7th of Oct 2019 at 09:54 am
stockcharts down?
Starting to look like a
Posted by jdaswani on 30th of Sep 2019 at 03:29 pm
Starting to look like a false break..lets see
Headline misleading...I saw same one
Saudi Energy Minister says Saudi oil supply is fully back ...
Posted by jdaswani on 17th of Sep 2019 at 02:04 pm
Headline misleading...I saw same one as you Steve..But if you open article it says will be fully online by end Sept
Perhaps state the obvious..Aramco is
thanks for the AMPY last week, got in when it ...
Posted by jdaswani on 16th of Sep 2019 at 02:31 pm
Perhaps state the obvious..Aramco is going public....higher Oil prices raises the valuation of the deal..just saying
Blackberry fundamental write up
BB Daily View
Posted by jdaswani on 5th of Sep 2019 at 02:40 pm
Blackberry fundamental write up
AMZN looks decent here.
Posted by jdaswani on 29th of Aug 2019 at 11:15 am
AMZN looks decent here.
For some reason, I cannot
Posted by jdaswani on 15th of Aug 2019 at 09:19 am
For some reason, I cannot open last nights newsletter. every time i hit the link, it take me to a page to resubscribe, I have plenty of time on my subscription. can you please advise.
SPY Options I bought on
Are we still in the SPY System trades?
Posted by jdaswani on 4th of Jun 2019 at 11:51 am
SPY Options I bought on Friday near the bell, closed out today for a 13% Gain
Thanks Matt. I am making
on SPY system 3rd entry not even close
Posted by jdaswani on 31st of May 2019 at 03:38 pm
Thanks Matt. I am making my first entry today at the bell using the Aug 260 calls. any reason why i shouldnt take that trade here?
Matt can you send me
Can someone let me know when the 401K Paint Dry ...
Posted by jdaswani on 13th of May 2019 at 10:27 am
Matt can you send me as well..I like following paint dry too
I really dislike Tesla /
TSLA daily and weekly charts
Posted by jdaswani on 26th of Apr 2019 at 01:17 pm
I really dislike Tesla / Musk but action around 61.8% Fib on weekly is holding. I think its a long here with a stop just below days lows.
Matt can you please post
Posted by jdaswani on 20th of Mar 2019 at 03:19 pm
Matt can you please post yield curve chart of yours
Likely Brexit related. Theresa May's
Matt what's up with TLT?
Posted by jdaswani on 12th of Mar 2019 at 03:26 pm
Likely Brexit related. Theresa May's deal failed again
Very slow and interface freezes
Anyone in the room use interactive brokers? curious on your ...
Posted by jdaswani on 21st of Feb 2019 at 10:48 am
Very slow and interface freezes alot
Does anyone know the symbol
Posted by jdaswani on 19th of Feb 2019 at 01:47 pm
Does anyone know the symbol for Leading Indicators and Global Leading indicators on stock charts
We feel your pain. It
For Those Who Live Up North Please Stay Warm
Posted by jdaswani on 29th of Jan 2019 at 09:43 am
We feel your pain. It was 50 this morning in South Florida
Clarification - I just went
Posted by jdaswani on 9th of Jan 2019 at 09:24 am
Clarification - I just went to systems tab - I noticed the system is short as of 1/7/2018 - after the initial cover a few days before - is this accurate - system short?