I found it really odd you haven’t been showing this channel chart since your weekend news letter.   I keep wondering if there is a reason way it wasn’t shown.  This is the primary chart I’ve been trading SPX against this week.

If I am reading table 5 correctly it looks like they pulled out 10 billion since last wed.

Is there any way to tell how more  QT the fed will be doing this month?

That would be a great idea (many of us have day time jobs) to put a table like this at the bottom of the news letter with entry points for new ideas like KEY and RF

I’m no expert but I don’t believe that formation meets the increased volume requirement of an island reversal.  Your chart does make me wonder if The SPY daily trading range will resolve in an island bottom.  However, Since the  current  daily island has formed over the last 11 trading sessions rather than a couple of trading session it may also be invalid or it could be marking an intermediate trend reversal rather than a short term trend reversal.  Just throwing a thought out there.  I appreciate your chat.

Spy attempting to take back half of yesterday’s candle.  Monitoring...

Great video Matt.  For us that don’t always have time to watch the whole news letter could just the spreadsheet get posted for new trade ideas - using the $500 risk example.  I don’t want to put you out if it is a hassle.   Just a suggestion if you think your membership would get value out of it.

Very interesting article.  Thanks Matt!   How much does the fed plan to unwind - $4.18T?  Is it typical for the Fed to have over $4T in treasuries and mortgage backed securities.  Did the fed 'print' money to buy these securities which seems to me would be an inflationary move?    If the Fed sells $4T in these instruments, does that mean the national debt is reduced by $4T?     Do we have an economist here that can explain what we should expect as selling these instruments pulls liquidity out of the (stock?) market? 

I believe Your cash payment will be the underlying value of the options that make up XIV rather than the price of XIV.   Svxy was up a similar amount today

Check out the news letter for today.  I believe Matt covered it in near the beginning of the recording.

I don't know what broker you use but Fidelity gives you that for free with their active trader software.

Today, Fidelity will not let me open a position on XIV or SVKY (I was able to buy a little SVKY yesterday).  People trying to sell might have a difficult time selling (no demand) making the price of XIV disjointed from the underlying contract value in the ETN.  When ETN closes there seems to be a possibility the distribution you receive could be much higher than the value of XIV.  Anyone have a thought on this or experience with this type of situation?

Does anyone know if XIV will continue to trade contacts right up to the close? Or is Credit Suisse done trading contracts and what ever the ETN's contracts were worth yesterday is what XIV will close at later this month?  From what I have read they will continue to trade contracts per the prospectus. 

If CS continues to trade contracts, and the VIX goes down, and people capitulate, could the ETN's contracts be worth more on the closing day than what XIV is trading at - thus when funds are dispersed, you may get more funds than what the underlying XIV shares were worth?  In other words, if the XIV is way oversold, could the ETN's contracts/share be worth more than the closing price of XIV?

Below is from the prospectus- it addresses a trading premium but what if XIV closes at a trading discount - the funds you receive would be greater than the value of the XIV shares - correct?

Any

limitation or suspension on the issuance of the ETNs may materially and adversely affect the price and liquidity of the ETNs in the

secondary market. Alternatively, the decrease in supply may cause an imbalance in the market supply and demand, which may cause the

ETNs to trade at a premium over the indicative value of the ETNs. Any premium may be reduced or eliminated at any time. Paying a

premium purchase price over the indicative value of the ETNs could lead to significant losses in the event the investor sells such ETNs at a

time when such premium is no longer present in the market place or such ETNs are accelerated (including at our option, which we have the

discretion to do at any time), in which case investors will receive a cash payment in an amount equal to the Closing Indicative Value on the

Accelerated Valuation Date (each as defined herein). Investors should consult their financial advisors before purchasing or selling the ETNs,

especially for ETNs trading at a premium over their indicative value.

 it is trading now, I bought a few in the $11s

How did your systems close?  VIX system closed inside its BB.

Thanks for the post.

I wonder if the industrial loan banking license is going to be approved soon?  

Looks like SPY is touching the upper trend line.  Time for a reversal?

Looks like SPY is touching the upper trend line.  Time for a reversal?