Shouldn't market sentiment be measured by what people actually
do (buy or sell), not how they say they feel? If so, I'd
argue that an overwhelming majority of investors have not sold much
of anything since the start of the year; therefore sentiment isn't
really negative. Watch what I do, not what I say. Majority
have their money in retirement accounts and if anything, have sat
tight since the start of the year, as they've been advised to do
for the last 15-20 years.
If that's the situation, how low can "the market" go if those
with retirement accounts ever panic en masse?
Great call by you. The thing that's really disconcerting
about Cathie Wood and her ARK funds is that she's stubborn to a
"T", arrogant and rarely if ever admits to being wrong, That's a
bad combination for a major fund manager.
In a recent interview she got defensive and actually claimed she
was running a deep "value" fund: "Give us five years, we're running
a deep value portfolio". I wonder if a similar disclaimer is
included in the ARK prospectuses? Most of her funds are
already down 50% from their highs and the bear market is just
getting under way.
Matt or Steve, With the market poised to take another
significant hit at the open and gold up $50+, can you provide some
short term thoughts on how the precious metal miners might play out
in the short-term.? They are quite extended yet continue to
rise. Been in quite a # for quite a while, feeling positive
for the long term, but gold and silver miners now appear to be
overbought on the daily timeframe.
Been so long since they've made a sustained run. Does news
of the day (Ukraine) dominate the short term picture which
continues straight up? If so, when would the technicals
dictate a pullback?
Sorry, I'm not buying it; we are still in greed mode.
Here's why:
Actions speak louder than words. Easy to say one is
fearful , but if one sits tight with all their investments are they
truly fearful? Majority of $ invested in the market is
through retirement accounts. Overwhelming majority of
individuals with retirement accounts are passive, longterm
investors who believe stocks go up forever., and rarely sell.
Those accounts remain fully invested or close to it.
The current selloff is a reflection of active traders and
investors who are fearful, but they make up a small % of all money
invested in the market. So if you were to weight the emotions
of all investors and traders (including those with retirement
accounts), the result is we are still in greed mode. When
retirement plan investors start to liquidate their mutual funds and
ETFs, that's when true fear kicks in.
Any general rule of thumb or suggestions when placing a stop
limit order on how large a spread to use when placing a stop limit
buy order (assuming you are buying the breakout)? For stocks
under $10.00/share I generally use $0.05, then bump it up to $0.10
for stocks $10.00-$20.00/share., etc. Is that too tight a
range?
Over-priced is an understatement. When the music
stops.....
That said, given the volatility it's a great short-term trading
vehicle right now if you're nimble. Using 5 minute candles
yesterday, I scalped 10 points in a few hours after it broke out of
a textbook consolidation at $112.50.
Reminds me of a guy I knew at the racetrack years ago.
Decent handicapper; terrible money manager. Always put
everything on the line. Even on days when he had 5 or 6
winners, unless he won the last race of the day he left the track a
loser. Impossible to give people like that advice.
Did IBM really spike $5.00 higher earlier today, or is that a
mistake on the chart? Supposedly happened within one 5
minute candle, but there was no volume to support that move, which
leads me to believe it's an error. Anyone know? Has
created an ugly candle on the daily. Will it be fixed...or
perhaps the move was legit?
Just my observation (based upon anecdotal not technical
evidence): majority of people with $$$ in the market ("everyone" as
is so commonly referred to) are NOT expecting or calling for a
serious correction or market crash; rather, they remain extremely
complacent. Overwhelming majority remain at or near fully
invested (in retirement accounts +). Yes, traders are
nervous, and rightfully so based upon technicals, but they (we)
make up a small % of total market participation.
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
Shouldn't market sentiment be measured
With all the news going on ... i'm still surprised ...
Posted by RichieD on 1st of Mar 2022 at 02:07 pm
Shouldn't market sentiment be measured by what people actually do (buy or sell), not how they say they feel? If so, I'd argue that an overwhelming majority of investors have not sold much of anything since the start of the year; therefore sentiment isn't really negative. Watch what I do, not what I say. Majority have their money in retirement accounts and if anything, have sat tight since the start of the year, as they've been advised to do for the last 15-20 years.
If that's the situation, how low can "the market" go if those with retirement accounts ever panic en masse?
Great call by you. The
Looking at ARKK under 60$ made me think of a ...
Posted by RichieD on 24th of Feb 2022 at 07:49 am
Great call by you. The thing that's really disconcerting about Cathie Wood and her ARK funds is that she's stubborn to a "T", arrogant and rarely if ever admits to being wrong, That's a bad combination for a major fund manager.
In a recent interview she got defensive and actually claimed she was running a deep "value" fund: "Give us five years, we're running a deep value portfolio". I wonder if a similar disclaimer is included in the ARK prospectuses? Most of her funds are already down 50% from their highs and the bear market is just getting under way.
Matt or Steve, With the
Posted by RichieD on 24th of Feb 2022 at 07:25 am
Matt or Steve, With the market poised to take another significant hit at the open and gold up $50+, can you provide some short term thoughts on how the precious metal miners might play out in the short-term.? They are quite extended yet continue to rise. Been in quite a # for quite a while, feeling positive for the long term, but gold and silver miners now appear to be overbought on the daily timeframe.
Been so long since they've made a sustained run. Does news of the day (Ukraine) dominate the short term picture which continues straight up? If so, when would the technicals dictate a pullback?
No mention of Nasdaq futures
Posted by RichieD on 25th of Jan 2022 at 05:37 pm
No mention of Nasdaq futures on CNBC. Is it crashing?
Cathy Wood calls the market
Posted by RichieD on 10th of Jan 2022 at 11:45 am
Cathy Wood calls the market irrational as her flagship fund drops another 4%. Her sentiment only applies on the way down, of course.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/10/ark-innovation-fund-drops-another-4percent-as-cathie-wood-calls-markets-irrational.html
Matt: In last night's newsletter
Posted by RichieD on 6th of Jan 2022 at 08:06 am
Matt: In last night's newsletter you mentioned you have a position in the inverse ETF for TLT. Would that be TTT?
Anyone have any clever "last
Posted by RichieD on 31st of Dec 2021 at 08:49 am
Anyone have any clever "last day of the calendar year" angles to look out for?
Happy New Year to all!
Sorry, I'm not buying it;
https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/ 19 now vs 64 a week ago
Posted by RichieD on 1st of Dec 2021 at 07:04 pm
Sorry, I'm not buying it; we are still in greed mode. Here's why:
Actions speak louder than words. Easy to say one is fearful , but if one sits tight with all their investments are they truly fearful? Majority of $ invested in the market is through retirement accounts. Overwhelming majority of individuals with retirement accounts are passive, longterm investors who believe stocks go up forever., and rarely sell. Those accounts remain fully invested or close to it.
The current selloff is a reflection of active traders and investors who are fearful, but they make up a small % of all money invested in the market. So if you were to weight the emotions of all investors and traders (including those with retirement accounts), the result is we are still in greed mode. When retirement plan investors start to liquidate their mutual funds and ETFs, that's when true fear kicks in.
Any general rule of thumb
PUBM busted out of that coil
Posted by RichieD on 30th of Nov 2021 at 10:15 am
Any general rule of thumb or suggestions when placing a stop limit order on how large a spread to use when placing a stop limit buy order (assuming you are buying the breakout)? For stocks under $10.00/share I generally use $0.05, then bump it up to $0.10 for stocks $10.00-$20.00/share., etc. Is that too tight a range?
Over-priced is an understatement. When
Munster: RIVN trading at 2.5 X TSLA Valuation.
Posted by RichieD on 12th of Nov 2021 at 09:08 am
Over-priced is an understatement. When the music stops.....
That said, given the volatility it's a great short-term trading vehicle right now if you're nimble. Using 5 minute candles yesterday, I scalped 10 points in a few hours after it broke out of a textbook consolidation at $112.50.
Why would that "NOT"act as
MMMM
Posted by RichieD on 12th of Nov 2021 at 06:48 am
Why would that "NOT"act as support, Matt? On the weekly, there appears to be a support zone between $0.46-$0.50 going back two years.
And yet Stockcharts.com and other
Rivian stock indicated to open around $120, or 54% above ...
Posted by RichieD on 10th of Nov 2021 at 01:13 pm
And yet Stockcharts.com and other charting services show the "open" at the "IPO" price of $78.00. What a joke!
Update: They just changed it to reflect a $106 open.
Agree. Wondering when their advanced
A2Z
Posted by RichieD on 22nd of Sep 2021 at 09:13 am
Agree. Wondering when their advanced automotive fire prevention system will find real interest. To me that's a game changer.
You called it on the
man Uranium continues to kick butt
Posted by RichieD on 2nd of Sep 2021 at 10:50 am
You called it on the monthly (or weekly) some time ago. I have URG and DNN; both storming higher.
Reminds me of a guy
Dogecoin
Posted by RichieD on 21st of Jun 2021 at 09:33 am
Reminds me of a guy I knew at the racetrack years ago. Decent handicapper; terrible money manager. Always put everything on the line. Even on days when he had 5 or 6 winners, unless he won the last race of the day he left the track a loser. Impossible to give people like that advice.
Did IBM really spike $5.00
Posted by RichieD on 29th of Apr 2021 at 02:08 pm
Did IBM really spike $5.00 higher earlier today, or is that a mistake on the chart? Supposedly happened within one 5 minute candle, but there was no volume to support that move, which leads me to believe it's an error. Anyone know? Has created an ugly candle on the daily. Will it be fixed...or perhaps the move was legit?
Just my observation (based upon
Blowoff
Posted by RichieD on 19th of Apr 2021 at 07:06 am
Just my observation (based upon anecdotal not technical evidence): majority of people with $$$ in the market ("everyone" as is so commonly referred to) are NOT expecting or calling for a serious correction or market crash; rather, they remain extremely complacent. Overwhelming majority remain at or near fully invested (in retirement accounts +). Yes, traders are nervous, and rightfully so based upon technicals, but they (we) make up a small % of total market participation.
Would rather be living in
glad im not in CA ... https://seekingalpha.com/news/3636741-much-of-california-ordered-back-lockdown-governor-newsom
Posted by RichieD on 17th of Nov 2020 at 07:22 am
Would rather be living in a state where the governor cares about lives than be governed by this ignorant soul: https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/16/politics/kristi-noem-south-dakota-covid-19/index.html
Why not take it at
CDE Silver & Gold Stock. Weekly Close. Beautiful {C&H} setting ...
Posted by RichieD on 19th of Oct 2020 at 06:49 am
Why not take it at the break above the channel of the handle?
Any thoughts on the possibility
Some what ifs?What if yesterday was a B wave high?What ...
Posted by RichieD on 17th of Sep 2020 at 09:33 am
Any thoughts on the possibility of a 100% retracement over time?