The hypothesis that a double top pattern in the daily RSI
(Relative Strength Index) above 70 often leads to a near-term
pullback has some support in technical analysis literature. Several
sources provide insight into the behavior of RSI in overbought
conditions and its implications for potential pullbacks.
RSI Overbought Conditions: When the RSI exceeds
70, it indicates that an asset is overbought, suggesting that a
pullback may be imminent. Historical data shows that selling
signals triggered when the RSI crosses below 70 after being above
this level often correlate with short-term price declines (
Quantified Strategies) (
TradingSim).
Double Top Pattern in RSI: The double top pattern
in RSI, where the RSI hits above 70 twice before pulling back, is
considered a bearish signal. This pattern indicates that momentum
is weakening, even though the price may be reaching new highs. It
often precedes a price reversal or pullback (
Quantified Strategies) (
Quantified Strategies).
Backtesting Results: Backtesting of RSI-based
strategies generally shows that signals from overbought conditions
(RSI > 70) can be profitable. For example, a study of the
S&P 500 using a range-momentum trading strategy based on RSI
showed that while such strategies do not generate frequent signals,
the ones they do produce are often profitable. This implies that
overbought conditions, particularly with confirming patterns like a
double top, can indeed lead to significant pullbacks (
Quantified Strategies).
Can Matt or Steve weigh in on this? I closed out my SLV.
Now if I trade SLV again and take a loss, it will not
"count" to reduce my income as it will be called a wash sale.
Its really quite shameful the law is like this.
for stock technical trading I hypothesize that when the wilders
RSI 14 daily does a double top about 70, there is a large chance
for at least a near term pullback. Can you find stats to
prove or disprove or assign odds at least
Posted by DigiNomad on 17th of May 2024 at 05:19 pm
Haha. But 80% never gets sent to Ukraine in the first place -
most of it goes to enrich the long time Gov / military executives
running ITA components. The 20% or less that goes to Ukraine is
mostly a bribe. *FWIW - we look down our noses at bribes in
America but it's basically a mandatory part of doing business
around the world (I will not provide personal examples on a public
website....but I guess just trust me).
My conspiracy theory is that 60% of the totally unaccountable
money we send to "Ukraine" gets returned to leftist organizations
and foundations in the USA as US stocks transferred in kind.
Prove me wrong.
Posted by DigiNomad on 17th of May 2024 at 04:11 pm
Meaningless, in fact. Look at Japan - they just announced
they've been in recession for 3 quarters, and Germany, and the list
goes on. All of the above are either making or have made recent
market highs. It's all about currency debasement - almost 100%.
Once that variable in plugged in, it all starts to make logical
financial sense. I know my analysis became orders of
magnitude less complicated once I figure it out this seemingly
obvious but not so obvious fact (the gaslighting is heavy when it
comes to getting people to look in other directions for
explanations - you get hammered as biased if you say currency
dilution is causing market rallies). I was honestly a bit
frustrated until it really clicked....and I mean it had to REALLY
click...then I was fine. Game on - I just had to understand the
game because my stupid personality demands it for some reason. Life
would be easier if I just blindly followed trends but that's not
me.
IYT - Transport etf -
Posted by raymuy on 18th of May 2024 at 03:16 am
IYT - Transport etf - showed that chart earlier - looks like a head and shoulder forming
for what it's worth -
Posted by raymuy on 18th of May 2024 at 03:01 am
for what it's worth - DJ transport and industrials have a neg divergence -
No. You prove you are
Economic backdrop - don't equate to Wall Street
Posted by steverobin on 17th of May 2024 at 07:27 pm
No. You prove you are right.
AI The hypothesis that a double
Can Matt or Steve weigh in on this? I ...
Posted by steveo on 17th of May 2024 at 06:17 pm
AI
The hypothesis that a double top pattern in the daily RSI (Relative Strength Index) above 70 often leads to a near-term pullback has some support in technical analysis literature. Several sources provide insight into the behavior of RSI in overbought conditions and its implications for potential pullbacks.
RSI Overbought Conditions: When the RSI exceeds 70, it indicates that an asset is overbought, suggesting that a pullback may be imminent. Historical data shows that selling signals triggered when the RSI crosses below 70 after being above this level often correlate with short-term price declines ( Quantified Strategies) ( TradingSim).
Double Top Pattern in RSI: The double top pattern in RSI, where the RSI hits above 70 twice before pulling back, is considered a bearish signal. This pattern indicates that momentum is weakening, even though the price may be reaching new highs. It often precedes a price reversal or pullback ( Quantified Strategies) ( Quantified Strategies).
Backtesting Results: Backtesting of RSI-based strategies generally shows that signals from overbought conditions (RSI > 70) can be profitable. For example, a study of the S&P 500 using a range-momentum trading strategy based on RSI showed that while such strategies do not generate frequent signals, the ones they do produce are often profitable. This implies that overbought conditions, particularly with confirming patterns like a double top, can indeed lead to significant pullbacks ( Quantified Strategies).
Can Matt or Steve weigh
Posted by steveo on 17th of May 2024 at 06:17 pm
Can Matt or Steve weigh in on this? I closed out my SLV. Now if I trade SLV again and take a loss, it will not "count" to reduce my income as it will be called a wash sale. Its really quite shameful the law is like this.
for stock technical trading I hypothesize that when the wilders RSI 14 daily does a double top about 70, there is a large chance for at least a near term pullback. Can you find stats to prove or disprove or assign odds at least
Haha. But 80% never gets
Economic backdrop - don't equate to Wall Street
Posted by DigiNomad on 17th of May 2024 at 05:19 pm
Haha. But 80% never gets sent to Ukraine in the first place - most of it goes to enrich the long time Gov / military executives running ITA components. The 20% or less that goes to Ukraine is mostly a bribe. *FWIW - we look down our noses at bribes in America but it's basically a mandatory part of doing business around the world (I will not provide personal examples on a public website....but I guess just trust me).
Here's the bulk of the Ukraine funding:
My conspiracy theory is that
Economic backdrop - don't equate to Wall Street
Posted by steveo on 17th of May 2024 at 05:13 pm
My conspiracy theory is that 60% of the totally unaccountable money we send to "Ukraine" gets returned to leftist organizations and foundations in the USA as US stocks transferred in kind. Prove me wrong.
I closed out my SLV,
MAG Updated
Posted by steveo on 17th of May 2024 at 05:10 pm
I closed out my SLV, I had a large position, my biggest net profit of last 2 years, nice. No joke, can buy a house in Japan with that.
Also closed the SPY proxy for the /MES breakout long, LOL pays Matts fee for the year.
weekly KISS updated as well,
KISS STS tables updated
Posted by matt on 17th of May 2024 at 04:43 pm
weekly KISS updated as well, and emails sent out
https://breakpointtrades.com/sts_weekly/?search=BPT_basket
yeah all the silver plays
MAG Updated
Posted by matt on 17th of May 2024 at 04:41 pm
yeah all the silver plays have been on fire for obvious reasons
if you want one that hasn't went parabolic yet, SSRM
that is MAG-nificient!
MAG Updated
Posted by morton7 on 17th of May 2024 at 04:39 pm
that is MAG-nificient!
It's all in GLD, SLV,
Economic backdrop - don't equate to Wall Street
Posted by DigiNomad on 17th of May 2024 at 04:15 pm
It's all in GLD, SLV, FCX, URA, BTC, ETH and SOL....I'm good! Thanks.
KISS STS tables updated
Posted by matt on 17th of May 2024 at 04:14 pm
daily systems are updated. The weekly will be updated shortly - the weekly only updates on Friday for obvious reasons
https://breakpointtrades.com/sts_table/?search=BPT_basket
Have a nice weekend -
Economic backdrop - don't equate to Wall Street
Posted by steve on 17th of May 2024 at 04:14 pm
Have a nice weekend - and Digi spend some money this weekend before it deflates further
Meaningless, in fact. Look at
Economic backdrop - don't equate to Wall Street
Posted by DigiNomad on 17th of May 2024 at 04:11 pm
Meaningless, in fact. Look at Japan - they just announced they've been in recession for 3 quarters, and Germany, and the list goes on. All of the above are either making or have made recent market highs. It's all about currency debasement - almost 100%. Once that variable in plugged in, it all starts to make logical financial sense. I know my analysis became orders of magnitude less complicated once I figure it out this seemingly obvious but not so obvious fact (the gaslighting is heavy when it comes to getting people to look in other directions for explanations - you get hammered as biased if you say currency dilution is causing market rallies). I was honestly a bit frustrated until it really clicked....and I mean it had to REALLY click...then I was fine. Game on - I just had to understand the game because my stupid personality demands it for some reason. Life would be easier if I just blindly followed trends but that's not me.
SPX 5300 Pin for OPEX
Posted by steve on 17th of May 2024 at 03:58 pm
SPX 5300 Pin for OPEX
Economic backdrop - don't equate
Posted by steve on 17th of May 2024 at 03:50 pm
Economic backdrop - don't equate to Wall Street
MAG Updated
Posted by steve on 17th of May 2024 at 03:43 pm
MAG - Chart Link - watchlist name with nice move
AA
AA (Alcoa)
Posted by mla127 on 17th of May 2024 at 03:29 pm
AA
RBRK ...
RBRK
Posted by mla127 on 17th of May 2024 at 03:26 pm
RBRK ...