the daily KISS charts with the MA ribbon also for now favor the
scenario I laid out. Notice MA ribbon is pinching from the
underside and price is coming up underside of the 50 MA and ATR - I
think one of those areas will offer resistance
what would trigger the KISS daily SPX and QQQ's to go back long?
Right from there you would have to have price go well above the ATR
on a closing basis.
that said, if this wave B lower high scenario plays out, the
KISS system then has an opportunity to long after the wave C
decline and then the ABC buy conditions may kick in that would
allow these to go back long just 2 or 3 days off the lows. ABC's
and washout longs are my favorite triggers on the KISS
it's one option that is valid and would fit the the symmetry
breaks for a lower high B wave, and the typical weakness this time
of the year, the sell in April/May go away, there are other options
of course that would lead to a new high right away.
Regarding the Fed, the problem with that is how do you trade
that info? You can't, what are the trade triggers from that info ,
and it's not hard info or facts, it's just some speculation?
To me the Fed has been pretty steadfast on rates even walking
back there earlier in the year optimism about possible cuts, and of
course they have to be extremely careful not to raise and cause a
run away inflation.
again all we can do is analyze the charts, and respond to what
happens and our triggers: As we always say
Project/Analyze, then monitor, and adjust to what happens
regarding your NVDA it looks okay, but refer to my big post on
the possible scenario for the SPX, if that were to unfold, then I
don't see how NVDA would not make a lower high
Here's the scenario I discussed in Thursday's newsletter but I
didn't market it up. Because of the daily symmetry break there is
higher odds now of a lower high forming. Under this scenario the
move down could be wave A, and we are unfolding in an abc bounce to
complete wave B lower high (supported by the symmetry break) and
once that's complete a move down for wave C. If you recall, we've
been showing such a scenario on the weekly QQQ's, see the last
chart
Wave B's often retrace 50% to 61.8%, however they can retrace
more than that and with the market one thing Steve and I have
noticed is that moves are more exaggerated these days. A move
down could take the SPX back to that long term support and demand
zone
$SPX - Chart Link weekly chart, if the
wave count is correct, basically once this wave B is over, you get
a move down to those major support zones
$SPX - Chart Link - this daily chart is
interesting, that broken trendline is another area that could be
retested if the SPX did a larger retracement than a 61.8% fib -
perhaps retest that trendline
QQQ - Chart Link - here's that weekly
QQQ's chart that we've been showing since last fall - this
basically shows the same scenario
RSG - Chart Link long idea last week where
the KISS system also set a tight stop, nice trade so far, make sure
to have stops in place or lock in some gains
AMD kiss system went long yesterday, price found support in that
support zone, otherwise if it declines again the 200 day MA would
be a logical magnet, but I don't think it was a bad spot at all for
the KISS system ty try an entry
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CENX coiling
Posted by matt on 29th of Apr 2024 at 09:24 am
CENX - Chart Link
the daily KISS charts with
SPX and one scenario the abc
Posted by matt on 28th of Apr 2024 at 11:29 am
the daily KISS charts with the MA ribbon also for now favor the scenario I laid out. Notice MA ribbon is pinching from the underside and price is coming up underside of the 50 MA and ATR - I think one of those areas will offer resistance
what would trigger the KISS daily SPX and QQQ's to go back long? Right from there you would have to have price go well above the ATR on a closing basis.
that said, if this wave B lower high scenario plays out, the KISS system then has an opportunity to long after the wave C decline and then the ABC buy conditions may kick in that would allow these to go back long just 2 or 3 days off the lows. ABC's and washout longs are my favorite triggers on the KISS
and Bitcoin would likely follow
Bitcoin shelf support, and BITI
Posted by matt on 27th of Apr 2024 at 07:55 pm
and Bitcoin would likely follow the market down if that scenario were to play out that I illustrated below, vs being a safe haven.
Bitcoin shelf support, and BITI
Posted by matt on 27th of Apr 2024 at 07:44 pm
$BTCUSD - Chart Link that big shelf support is important for bitcoin, if it is broken, a quick move to the lower 50's will occur
$BTCUSD - Chart Link
BITI - Chart Link Inverse ETF is the way to play it, and has a nice base forming
it's one option that is
SPX and one scenario the abc
Posted by matt on 27th of Apr 2024 at 11:40 am
it's one option that is valid and would fit the the symmetry breaks for a lower high B wave, and the typical weakness this time of the year, the sell in April/May go away, there are other options of course that would lead to a new high right away.
Regarding the Fed, the problem with that is how do you trade that info? You can't, what are the trade triggers from that info , and it's not hard info or facts, it's just some speculation? To me the Fed has been pretty steadfast on rates even walking back there earlier in the year optimism about possible cuts, and of course they have to be extremely careful not to raise and cause a run away inflation.
again all we can do is analyze the charts, and respond to what happens and our triggers: As we always say
Project/Analyze, then monitor, and adjust to what happens
regarding your NVDA it looks
Anticipating an NVDA buy on the STS today. Well, I ...
Posted by matt on 26th of Apr 2024 at 09:20 pm
regarding your NVDA it looks okay, but refer to my big post on the possible scenario for the SPX, if that were to unfold, then I don't see how NVDA would not make a lower high
SPX and one scenario the abc
Posted by matt on 26th of Apr 2024 at 09:19 pm
Here's the scenario I discussed in Thursday's newsletter but I didn't market it up. Because of the daily symmetry break there is higher odds now of a lower high forming. Under this scenario the move down could be wave A, and we are unfolding in an abc bounce to complete wave B lower high (supported by the symmetry break) and once that's complete a move down for wave C. If you recall, we've been showing such a scenario on the weekly QQQ's, see the last chart
Wave B's often retrace 50% to 61.8%, however they can retrace more than that and with the market one thing Steve and I have noticed is that moves are more exaggerated these days. A move down could take the SPX back to that long term support and demand zone
$SPX - Chart Link shows the scenario on the daily SPX
SPY - Chart Link same scenario but on the SPY
$SPX - Chart Link weekly chart, if the wave count is correct, basically once this wave B is over, you get a move down to those major support zones
$SPX - Chart Link - this daily chart is interesting, that broken trendline is another area that could be retested if the SPX did a larger retracement than a 61.8% fib - perhaps retest that trendline
QQQ - Chart Link - here's that weekly QQQ's chart that we've been showing since last fall - this basically shows the same scenario
from me as well, man
Wishing everyone a nice weekend
Posted by matt on 26th of Apr 2024 at 04:02 pm
from me as well, man was a boring day!
enjoy the rest of your Friday and have a good weekend!
US Dollar bull flag
Posted by matt on 26th of Apr 2024 at 12:06 pm
$USD - Chart Link- definitely has that bull flag look...
SPX 5 min
Posted by matt on 26th of Apr 2024 at 12:03 pm
$SPX - Chart Link kind of a H&S look there, anyway something to monitor if it breaks that trendline
otherwise being a Friday, I'm hoping the market just does nothing the rest of the day
RSG follow up
Posted by matt on 26th of Apr 2024 at 11:52 am
RSG - Chart Link long idea last week where the KISS system also set a tight stop, nice trade so far, make sure to have stops in place or lock in some gains
XBI, LABU
Posted by matt on 26th of Apr 2024 at 11:43 am
XBI - Chart Link- interesting with that last low, RSI divergence setting up
LABU - Chart Link- here's a 2hr view, you have pretty good MACD and RSI divergence
Bitcoin
Posted by matt on 26th of Apr 2024 at 11:40 am
$BTCUSD - Chart Link- 4hr
$BTCUSD - Chart Link- daily - again that 60K area needs to hold, otherwise it's gonna drop to low 50's
Update: ENPH
ENPH
Posted by matt on 26th of Apr 2024 at 11:39 am
ENPH - Chart Link- glad I covered that puppy yesterday in that support zone
ADBE follow up
Posted by matt on 26th of Apr 2024 at 11:37 am
ADBE - Chart Link- nice, still needs to close above the 20 MA though
NVDA
Posted by matt on 26th of Apr 2024 at 10:23 am
NVDA - Chart Link - EdZ posted some nice charts below, here's the one we've had, testing the downtrend line today
AMD
Posted by matt on 26th of Apr 2024 at 10:21 am
AMD kiss.png
AMD kiss system went long yesterday, price found support in that support zone, otherwise if it declines again the 200 day MA would be a logical magnet, but I don't think it was a bad spot at all for the KISS system ty try an entry
FUTU follow up
Posted by matt on 26th of Apr 2024 at 10:19 am
FUTU - Chart Link- off the highs but still above the trendline of that weekly coil
ES futures TradingView
Posted by matt on 26th of Apr 2024 at 10:17 am
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/WVDTpjM0/
really nothing until 5150
sorry about that, the newsletter
Thursday April 25th, 2024 Newsletter and Video
Posted by matt on 25th of Apr 2024 at 11:47 pm
sorry about that, the newsletter webpage version link was to an older newsletter, I fixed that. The Youtube video link was correct of course