Maybe. But I am starting to come around to the idea that it's different this time.  I don't think any of us have experienced full on fiscal domination mode like this. We're used to monetary policy cycles. Now the fiscal giant has been woken up....and she's pissed off. Fiscal is muchmore powerful than monetary....but it's never been used so openly outside of WWII.  I think they held off this long because they feared political backlash for deficit spending (waking up the fiscal giant). But now they've pretty much concluded that people are passive morons and it's game on.  Crashing higher is the new black swan risk.

Baby boomers might be the most selfish generation in history. I don't care if they are blue team or red team, they're going to vote themselves way more benefits than they ever payed for.  That only leaves money printing as an option. 

Capital D for defensive. Maybe this time is different though. Perma bulls will say it's because of AI energy needs. That's at least partly true. When the printing slows down even a hair we will find out quickly where the substitutions turn up.  Papered over until then. 

Also, with all the buybacks and a mostly frozen IPO market, the market has gotten a lot smaller while the amount of dollars chasing it has exploded higher. We may have to permanently adjust multiples higher simply because of scarcity combined with excess capital.  I'd like to see a crash stop at a higher market multiple than what has stopped crashes previously (generally a 13 - 15 PE) but after a QE bull market lasting since 2009 it feels like that may never happen again. Accelerating money printing into a hot economy shows that the game will change..if our leaders have anything to say about it.

The earnings yield premium for XLP is negative (earnings yields less than the risk free rate). That's wild.

I think you have to buy that chart but if the bottom falls out don't give your stop more room because you're in the safe staples sector. If it breaks it could drop 30% or more and still be historically expensive. In the meantime, it could inflate a lot further if the pattern plays out.

Chart looks great. That multiple on cereal though. Wow. Bananas.

FWIW - CoPilot has gotten really good at answering these types of market questions now. It was horrible just a couple months ago. 

Cramer even has a strategy / acronym for playing the "earnings beat" game and says companies are moronic if they don't follow it.  UPOD - always Under Promise and Over Deliver.

It's kind of amazing to me that the average beat rate per cycle isn't more like 98%. I mean, they set their own damn targets! 

I was thinking the same thing earlier and this came to mind:

I don't want to start
Any blasphemous rumors
But I think that God's
Got a sick sense of humor
And when I die
I expect to find Him laughing

  

Earnings "beats" are a pet peeve of mine. I posted this on X earlier today:

The 'earnings beat' statistics, as in 86% of companies have beat so far this quarter are contrived by people selling stocks. It's essentially meaningless but you hear it constantly. If a company comes in overvalued and then beats a target they set are they now undervalued? Answer: the "beat" doesn't help you determine that in any way. It's a sales tactic.

Janet has green light. Print away and push this market to the moon. Let's go! 

Beauty. Looks like it needs to rest but who knows? I like the little fundamentals section at the top of your chart.  Helps with a quick scan of what type of mover it might be (in this case, I can't really tell, but I wouldn't feel comfortable holding it over night without digging into the negative PE).  Market Surge gives a better funnymentals overlay....but that's $150 per month.  

What were GME and AMC at their pinnacles?  Or Bed Bath and Out of Business? Redbox? I think they even ran Blockbuster up at one point (who even knew that was still listed?).  I don't know the market cap to rev numbers on any of them. I gave up looking once I realized how the game worked. 

There are so many layers of irony in this story. I love it.  Fun watching Bloomberg and CNBC lose their minds as it goes up. Suddenly it's a bad thing if stocks that aren't really worth anything go up anyway. Took DJT to get their panties in a wad though -  they just smiled and laughed through the whole meme stock phenomenon when various founders of failed companies floated shares into the madness and pulled untold billions from the Apes. Also ironic that Trump was never a stock guy. Now he's getting crushed in commercial RE (40 Wall property is in deep doo doo....WSJ did a piece on it a couple of days ago)....but the stock market he was never into is saving him.  There's something for everyone in this story :)

Most of the no brainer currency dilution plays are doing really well today.  BTC wants to be in that category but for now it still seems to be highly correlated to QQQ. The less obvious  assets where people have to think about whether currency dilution is going to inflate them or not aren't as strong right now. 

Looks like the only short META product is on the London Exchange.  Very liquid options market though. A put spread will achieve the same result...and less expensive (the tradeoff obviously is creating and executing the spread). 

After hours, off the charts comment. It's heartwarming to see CNN and MSNBC create new heroes for America's women with Stormy Daniels and her good friends constantly being interviewed.  Haters gonna hate about her looking for attention with the lawsuit. But I mean come on - a pornstar that craves attention at that kind of manic level to bring a lawsuit against a famous dude? Yeah right 

Haha - like I said yesterday....if you buy now, you'll probably pay later.

Someone I went to business school with pitched me on a Payday Loan business probably a decade ago. He had glossy pitch folders and everything. Completely legit proposal. I was like "ummm....NO. I'm not even a little bit interested."   Now society is creating financial products to sell to people so that they can put their monthly rent on installment payments. In the background, someone is pitching to someone that even if you build in a 40% default rate, it will still make money! Sickos. We have issues. 

Mostly a nothing burger.  Rick gives it a C- and says he's being generous.

Lol - when questioned he said he should probably have given it a D but he didn't want Steve's head to explode (Steve is king of positive spin to support the administration - he will spin armageddon as a positive econ event if it helps out the current administration)

On the desktop app, there is a button in the bottom right corner to access the calendar. That is a little more functional than accessing it via the web link I sent earlier. 

That's a tough question in a market being levitated by currency dilution. In general, a poor auction is one where yield closes above the ask coming into the auction (bond price closes below the bid coming in).  But there's a lot more to it that is mostly beyond me (I take Rick Santelli's grade for the most part...except the obvious part about the yield).

With asset prices rising primarily because the currency used to buy the assets is losing value, it makes the analysis even more difficult than it normally is. 

For TradingView peeps, there's also this to track news (and set alerts on news):   https://www.tradingview.com/economic-calendar/