Funny you mention that, Steve. Not only is nat gas a challenge to trade (I've heard it called the "Widow Maker" on more than one occasion), but I don't think I recall ever seeing a successful trade using UNG. All I remember on the blog and elsewhere is disapointment after disappointment. That in itself is a trend I suppose. As such, I stay away from it as well.

Good point. Although I still get somewhat annoyed when the market doesn't go my way, trading the charts instead of what I think the "market" is going to do has provided a much more enjoyable and profitable experience. Guessing the market is very difficult to do with any degree of accuracy. Buying quality breakouts or breakdowns, however, works pretty well regardless of what the market does. I got smacked a bit on this morning's rally as well, but it was only a 0.5% loss, whereas that short went on to lose 2.4% more without me. (In other words, having a well-placed stop often keeps me out of trouble). 

Ah crap. Stopped out. Ah well, hopefully I provided some entertainment for some of you guys here. :)

It might be a bit early for this, but I shorted some SSO for a gap fill trade (since we're just under the Aug 30th resistance on the S&P). It's a low risk trade, since my buy stop is just above today's high. If we go up from here, this could be a very short trade! :) If we head down, on the other hand, it could be a very nice day trade.

Sure, MCD has a bearish wedge, but I'd hesitate to short something that's got a 2 year trend that looks like that! Way too strong for my liking. I'd suggest finding something that's weak to short.

I agree. With a $15 (or so) Stockcharts membership, I can pretty much save all of Matt's watch listideas to my own folder (annotations and everything) in a few short minutes. Probably saves me hours a week. Well worth the subscription, in my opinion. (And now the $15 subscription comes with to-the-minute updated charts, not the delayed types.)

I haven't, but I did do a 1 or 2 year long only intraday silver strategy, and it was so unbelievably and consistently bad that I wrote a note to myself that I need to test the opposite to see if anything might come of it. (And it's not all due to commissions - just bad trade after bad trade). This could be related to the phenomenon you're talking about.

I agree. Tough to be bearish with all this bearishness around.

I feel both empowered AND bearish. Thanks Tony!

Shorts covered, profits taken (a la cspirit). Time to head to the wedding. See you all tomorrow! 

If we get much higher than 1130, we could break out of the inverted H&S pattern that has been forming since May, which could mean that we rally up to challenge the April highs. It's quite possible. (That would be an even better place for a double top, should the market choose to put one in.)

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p39962103499&a=206651200

Sorry, Matt. I should have looked at something more than a 5 minute chart to assess the situation for answers before looking elsewhere. For some reason I assumed it was news, not technicals. :p  [Edit: Ok, looks like it may have been both technicals and news (plus a 17% short interest yesterday, which must have squeezed the shorts pretty good). In any case, I've taken my profits and I think it's time to call it a day. Besides, my wife made me a dentist appointment in about an hour. What fun!!!]

Anyone know why US Steel (X) is doing so well? Not complaining, since I bought it near the open this morning (and I'm now following it with very tight stops), but it's up big on big volume.

Hi frtaylor, you're correct about DFT, since that didn't even break out. SMG, however, had broken out, but it broke out the day before and you bought it gapped up a bit (being 2% above the breaking point). So, that's probably why that trade didn't work. SMG may still work, but if you're going to buy late and buy a (small) gap, you'll need to give the trade time (and time isn't something we get much of these days, since the market reverses a lot). So, being up 2% is already kind of late for this market (unless you plan on waiting it out for a move higher). UCO might still work out as a trendline buy, but since it doesn't look like a day trade, you might need to wait a bit (with a stop just below the trendline). Hope this helps somewhat.

Thanks for the comments, guys. And my 90% of people being bearish was arbitrary (although I could have used 99.99% for comedic effect, and perhaps even greater accuracy. I think the video of Tony Robbins' plea to sell the market before the next big drop might have been the clincher though). Let's see what happens this fall. I wouldn't be surprised either way, although I really wouldn't be surprised to see the market rally huge into the fall. I realize I'm taking the easy argument here, since the more people who object, the greater my chances of being right! :)

Is it just me, or does 90% of all people out there think that the market is going to crash this fall? Seems like everyone thinks that the market "has" to crash soon, citing all kinds of fundamentals. (As usual, BPT remains fairly objective on that topic). While I understand the fundamentals, I'm generally skeptical when there's a general consensus that we're headed in one direction. What have you guys been noticing?

Saturn must be an electrician, or perhaps a network engineer. :)

I just shorted some SSO with a stop just above the high of today (about 0.7% stop for SSO). The $SPX is loking a bit weak on the 5 min chart, and if we head south from here (and perhaps even faster after FOMC), then it might be a good trade. And if not, no big loss.

Wow, that's a really useful chart, Matt.  Thanks!

Day trading mechanical systems - Has anyone else notice the past couple of weeks have been kind of nasty for these? I know they don't always do well (especially when volatility shrinks and the market is indecisive and consolidating), but it seems to me that this has been one of those times. I guess I'm just wondering if it's just my systems, or has anyone else had a frustrating couple of weeks. Thanks!