You or WX?

.... or not. Looks like it's got some  pretty strong resistance a few years back between 70.20 and (especially) 71.20. Not ideal for a swing trade.

UPS looks to be breaking out. I might buy it eod if the volume picks up, though I'm not hugely hopeful on a day like today.

I can't see my saved charts. Won't let me in.

Let me know when "Bond Apprentice" comes out, will you?

I agree - volatility is required for them to work. If volatility is too low, then you get just enough of a move for them to trigger, but you get no follow before they reverse on you. As such, I've found that I have my system off for weeks (and occasionally a few months) at a time. Mine have been off for a few weeks now, and I'm glad they are. On a more positive note, since nearly all mechanical systems are performing terribly, in a fairly consistent manner, this means that there is an opportunity to create a counter-system (a mean-reversion type) which will take advantage of these types of moves. Something like that could be quite profitable. But that would no doubt stop working as soon as the regular ones start working again.

Be careful with this one guys. Last time I traded a BIDU mechanical system over earnings, there was a 16% spike in the morning, and I was short. This one really seems to move, especially since it's a foreign stock, which means that it trades a full day in a foreign market after earnings before you'll ever get to sell or cover.

Bullion isn't looking so hot either.

I'm seeing a potential key reversal day today (i.e. big red bearish engulfing patterns on huge volume) on gold, silver, and GDX. If volume and momentum continues, this could lead to a significant pullback in the sector over the next few months.

These past 9 or so days show why it's difficult to be an automated systems trader. I've found that about once every month or two, for a couple of weeks or so, otherwise profitable systems are a total crapshoot, giving loss after loss after loss after loss. In fact, it's so frequent that I'm hardly phased by it. (Take a look at a chart of the S&P. Whenever you see a 10 day series of sideways moving, overlapping candles, that's what I'm talking about.) However, there is good news: First, these don't generally last any longer than 2 weeks, and we're pretty much there today or tomorrow. Second, these consolidations are almost always followed by some good days that almost always make up for (and exceed) the previous 2 weeks of losses, some time in just one good day or two. That's why I patiently wait, rather than turning my systems off. (Otherwise I would miss the big move.) I've been trading these systems for nearly 2 years now, and I haven't been disappointed yet. So just keep this in mind if you've been enduring the same crappy mechanical trading for the past 2 weeks as I have.

The market looks confused at the moment. Time to book profits and take off, methinks.

Ugh. Not sure why I still insist on trading Fed days. It never seems to work out. I think I need to take a break on days like this.

Good point. I've always found that a great chart pattern is only made perfect when few believe in it. On the other hand, few things are more dangerous than a nice chart pattern that everyone seems to be placing their confidence in.

Not a problem. To be honest, I've never actually done that prior to today (heading to the post office right now), and my annual tax bills have been pretty big in recent years. Fortunately the IRS and my state didn't bother to fine me. I think it has to do with the fact that I file the paper way, always on the due date, and my schedule D is a few inches thick. I don't think they want to deal with all of that when things are so busy, so they just been waiving the fees! One major benefit of being  a trader, I suppose. (I'd better start filing quarterly though...)

Don't forget that today is the due date for quarterly estimated taxes! (I hate it as much as everyone else, but I know that sometimes I need to be reminded.) 

Look at the history of the system. Since FAS started trading, the system has had 38 instances of 4 or more losses in a row, with the highest series of losses being 10 losses in a row. As such, 4 bad trades shouldn't be viewed as very unusual for a system like this. This isn't saying the system is bad, because it's not. Its history is great. But you can't just look at one bad trade in a vaccuum. For instance, a good way to look at a system like this is by examining the monthly returns. I only show 2 down months in the past 2 or so years, which is pretty darned good.

Very choppy day today. Lots of fake-outs too, so I guess I won't be taking home any longs after all. (And AKRX was looking so good too...). Can't win 'em all I guess.

Like any good trader, Matt changes his mind with the market, and the market changes its mind a lot! Don't get married to a particular direction. Flip flopping is bad in politics, but it's absolutely critical in trading (as long as you take your direction changes from the markets).

Taking home some XCO shorts. Near the broken trendline, lackluster volume, etc.