As my chart shows, we are in wave Primary[C] of Cycle II.
The 5-wave Primary[C] is going up and we may be just be
starting Intermediate wave (2) to the up side. Primary[C]
could take us up well into next year. When it completes,
Cycle II will also be complete, and it will be bombs away to the
downside as we enter 5-wave Cycle III to the downside.
Like I said I'm new to trading and to EW analysis. Just
throwing this out. I may even have the waves mixed up.
Comments appreciated.
Guess the upload is not working for me. I hit the browse
button, picked the image file, but it didn't show.
I've got an 10 min chart on stockcharts, but do not know how
to directly or indirectly upload it.
Just getting started with EW analysis and trading in general.
Hope my image uploads OK. If you can see it and care to
make a comment, I'd appreciate it.
ducksoup . . . Thanks for pointing out the difference in the
charts. That's news to me--I was unaware that an adjustment
was being made. The GoogleFinance charts are also adjusted
like the SharpCharts. I guess they do that because the
30-cent dividend paid out every month is reducing the value of the
company as you go back in time. Or is it?
For the last ten trading days in the TLT charts (FreeStockCharts
vs. SharpCharts) there is very little adjustment. When you
get back to Feb '09 the difference is more that $5. That could make
a difference in how one interprets a chart.
Is the current-day trading price for TLT always the same or very
close in both charts? Are the historical prices in the
SharpChart constantly being adjusted as the company pays out more
money through dividends? What is happening here? How
should one think about this?
Your chart of TLT clearly shows the price congestion of Feb
and Mar '09 overhead, but my chart shows that the price of TLT has
cleared that hurdle. Am I not seeing something?
Posted by tradequick on 4th of Aug 2010 at 02:02 pm
Thanks for the link to his blog. There is a radio
interview there. The guy sounds good, but what do I know?
I signed on for a free period as a subscriber. He has a
nice site. I'm going to check it out.
I've been spare-time trading for less than a year, and I've
never heard of the guy. But his BAM (Beat-Any-Market) theory
is intriguing. I also watched some of his other videos.
His theories make as much sense to me as the other technical
analysis methods I'm becoming familiar with--kind of like
astrology--and that's a good thing coming from this old hippy.
However, I finally gave up on astrology--it took more
intuition than I believed I could develop. But I'm hanging
with TA.
It is amazing that trend lines can be drawn through three or
more extreme points many, many times on random charts. And
those fib levels do work out often enough to give one pause.
So I'm convinced the market is not random.
But how are we to take warnings like this from BAMTRADER?
My intuition (emotion, I guess) has got me on edge.
Maybe I've read too much Prechter or Bill Bonner.
Aren't these guys, who make a lot of sense, predicting
something like BAMTRADER? It's just that BAMTRADER says it's
going to happen next week. What do you all think of his
warning and his technical analysis? Anyone see the flash
crash coming? . . .how about the crash of '87? Can you pros
out there read the tea leaves of the charts in time to save your
wealth or make a killing?
In a series of three YouTube videos Bill Bonner of Agora
Financial tells what to expect as the debt crises unfolds.
For the first video, go to
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FCG8fBhJEk . Then
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsiHaR0hK18 . Then
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gU8E2_GZhkI .
Bonner recommends bonds until the government cranks up the
printing press. He expects a Japan-like economy in the U.S.
and ten really hard years of "The Great Correction".
My question:
if this scenario unfolds,
will we have the time and
opportunity to switch from stocks, then to bonds, then to gold and
silver coins as the crises deepens?
Posted by tradequick on 21st of Jul 2010 at 05:27 pm
Matt, some time ago I watched that video twice--the second time
with a lot of stops and starts and thinking. If that video is
true, won't the great mass of people fall off the big treadmill?
Mind you, I cannot argue otherwise.
Then won't the government itself fall and chaos appear? Maybe
marshall law will hold things together (perhaps that explains the
big TASR rally today) I think Prechter thinks that civil order will
endure and fiat money will be king. I just don't know.
Posted by tradequick on 21st of Jul 2010 at 04:54 pm
Only this last year, have I started to think along the lines of
deflation rather than inflation after reading Prechter's
ideas on the subject. I really don't understand what he says;
but, if we have a fractional reserve banking system where money is
created out of nothing, then, when defaults occur, does that money
just disappear? And is it true that when money and liquidity
begin to disappear, then government won't be able to print money
fast enough to replace it during a massive contraction? Or
can the government just throw money out of helicopters and solve
the deflation problem? I know Prechter says "no". I
wish I understood why!
Posted by tradequick on 21st of Jul 2010 at 04:07 pm
Thanks for thinking of those folks that don't have a
subscription to StockCharts. That was me until yesterday when
I went whole hog with the "extra" and "real time" options.
Now, I couldn't be more pleased. After struggling with
GoogleFinance charts since last October when I started trading my
own 401K account, I feel like I have put on a pair of glasses--I
can see what's going on--now I can draw trend lines and fibs.
That was really hard to do on those free Google Charts, and
they had a nasty habit of freezing up when you got a dozen charts
open at once.
Anyway I really appreciate your charts and the web addresses
that you give out that allow non-members of StockCharts to get
intraday stuff. That was a big advance for me. It's
really easy to bookmark them and just keep clicking through them to
stay updated, even without a membership in StockCharts.
Ironically, it was you furnishing this free access to
StockCharts that convinced me that I had to have the real
thing.
That said, I recommend that, if someone out there is learning to
trade like me, get StockCharts. It's well worth it.
Mike Swanson of WallStreetWindow is buying SDS in advance of
Bernanke's speech today at 2:00 pm. Check
out http://www.wallstreetwindow.com/content/node/16618 . In a
blog to subscribers early this morning
he said:
"In the past the market would often rally up into Bernanke
appearances and then start to drop right as he started to talk. It
seems likely to me that the traders buying yesterday were doing so
ahead of Apple's earnings and Bernanke's speech.
"Last week we saw earnings season start and just about every
single day the market has sold earnings. This Apple earnings report
is really the only report that has helped the market out in any
way.
"I'm pretty convinced that we have seen the peak of this
earnings rally when the S&P 500 got near 1,100 this week. Right
now the market has stiff resistance there. If somehow it were to
trade straight up from here in the next two sessions and go through
that level I do not think it would go anywhere. For the market to
have a big sustainable rally it would need to go up to that level
and then pause for a few days before breaking out - that is what
the market would have to do in order to be bullish.
"I'm bearish and doubt that will happen,. Instead I think the
market will trade up a little more and reverse back down again and
break yesterday's low within a week to start another leg down to
this bear market.
"If the market doesn't sell the opening today then I think it
will probably continue higher until Bernanke's speech at 2:00 PM.
That is a point at which it could easily peak out and start to drop
again. I will likely start to bet against the stock market then by
buying the SDS ultra-short ETF and placing a stop on it at its July
low around $31.00.
"I want to give the position plenty of room in case the market
were to test the 1,100 level this week. I also am leaving enough
money in my account in cash to double the position at some point in
the future if I want to - so it would be a 50% position."
In an email to subscribers around 10:00 a.m., he said:
" I am placing a long recommendation to buy SDS right now
at the currently
trading price of 33.65 with a stop loss point of 31 a share.
I explained
this before the bell my plans to buy SDS today.
I had been hoping that the
market would act stronger off of the open and
rally more today into Bernanke's 2:00 PM testimony. It may still
do that,
but so far today the market has gapped up and faded back down.
Apple
which was the excitement of the morning gapped open and is
currently
trading at a low of the day and the Nasdaq 100 are actually in
the red.
So I took I went long now
instead of waiting. I am likely to buy more
once SDS goes through 35.50 or if somehow the market does manage
to trade
up more in the next few days. You can never get in
something at an exact
top or bottom so you just have to take a position at some point
and with
the market trading down off the open I want to make sure I get
a
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
DANG
Posted by tradequick on 2nd of Jun 2011 at 02:06 pm
Nice chart.
SPX 5m
Posted by tradequick on 20th of Oct 2010 at 10:40 pm
Thanks for pointing out that megaphone top.
Another bullish count.
EWT
Posted by tradequick on 27th of Aug 2010 at 02:04 pm
I'm new to EW Analysis, and I'm trying to get my bearings with all the waves within waves. Anyway this is my best guess of where we are:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&st=2006-01-01&en=2011-01-15&id=p32834174970&a=207140150
As my chart shows, we are in wave Primary[C] of Cycle II. The 5-wave Primary[C] is going up and we may be just be starting Intermediate wave (2) to the up side. Primary[C] could take us up well into next year. When it completes, Cycle II will also be complete, and it will be bombs away to the downside as we enter 5-wave Cycle III to the downside.
Like I said I'm new to trading and to EW analysis. Just throwing this out. I may even have the waves mixed up. Comments appreciated.
Title: Another Dangerous Pattern Sam Collins
SPX Daily
Posted by tradequick on 19th of Aug 2010 at 11:48 am
Sam Collins of Investor Place reports a megaphone top for the Dow at . That is
http://www.investorplace.com/news-opinion/daily-market-outlook/market-analysis-market-forms-bearish-horn-chart-pattern.html
Title: No image. Guess the upload
Bear flag on SPX?? Bueller.....anyone? Is this wave 4 completion or start ...
Posted by tradequick on 18th of Aug 2010 at 12:31 pm
Guess the upload is not working for me. I hit the browse button, picked the image file, but it didn't show. I've got an 10 min chart on stockcharts, but do not know how to directly or indirectly upload it.
Title: This EW count probable? Just
Bear flag on SPX?? Bueller.....anyone? Is this wave 4 completion or start ...
Posted by tradequick on 18th of Aug 2010 at 12:26 pm
Just getting started with EW analysis and trading in general. Hope my image uploads OK. If you can see it and care to make a comment, I'd appreciate it.
Title: Big difference in FreeStockCharts
TLT breakout
Posted by tradequick on 14th of Aug 2010 at 11:07 pm
ducksoup . . . Thanks for pointing out the difference in the charts. That's news to me--I was unaware that an adjustment was being made. The GoogleFinance charts are also adjusted like the SharpCharts. I guess they do that because the 30-cent dividend paid out every month is reducing the value of the company as you go back in time. Or is it?
For the last ten trading days in the TLT charts (FreeStockCharts vs. SharpCharts) there is very little adjustment. When you get back to Feb '09 the difference is more that $5. That could make a difference in how one interprets a chart.
Is the current-day trading price for TLT always the same or very close in both charts? Are the historical prices in the SharpChart constantly being adjusted as the company pays out more money through dividends? What is happening here? How should one think about this?
Title: TLT FreeStockChart Correct? Your chart
TLT breakout
Posted by tradequick on 14th of Aug 2010 at 01:45 pm
Your chart of TLT clearly shows the price congestion of Feb and Mar '09 overhead, but my chart shows that the price of TLT has cleared that hurdle. Am I not seeing something?
My chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p62779912587&a=206360844&listNum=2
I think this was the
VXX vs VIX
Posted by tradequick on 11th of Aug 2010 at 10:23 am
I think this was the article: http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2009/10/why-vxx-is-not-good-short-term-or-long.html .
Thanks for the link to
BAM Investor (do you still listen them?)
Posted by tradequick on 4th of Aug 2010 at 02:02 pm
Thanks for the link to his blog. There is a radio interview there. The guy sounds good, but what do I know? I signed on for a free period as a subscriber. He has a nice site. I'm going to check it out.
Thanks for the tip. I've
Newer Trader Tip
Posted by tradequick on 4th of Aug 2010 at 11:17 am
Thanks for the tip. I've bookmarked it.
BAMTRADER says CRASH!
BAM Investor (do you still listen them?)
Posted by tradequick on 4th of Aug 2010 at 12:57 am
I've been spare-time trading for less than a year, and I've never heard of the guy. But his BAM (Beat-Any-Market) theory is intriguing. I also watched some of his other videos. His theories make as much sense to me as the other technical analysis methods I'm becoming familiar with--kind of like astrology--and that's a good thing coming from this old hippy. However, I finally gave up on astrology--it took more intuition than I believed I could develop. But I'm hanging with TA.
It is amazing that trend lines can be drawn through three or more extreme points many, many times on random charts. And those fib levels do work out often enough to give one pause. So I'm convinced the market is not random.
But how are we to take warnings like this from BAMTRADER? My intuition (emotion, I guess) has got me on edge. Maybe I've read too much Prechter or Bill Bonner. Aren't these guys, who make a lot of sense, predicting something like BAMTRADER? It's just that BAMTRADER says it's going to happen next week. What do you all think of his warning and his technical analysis? Anyone see the flash crash coming? . . .how about the crash of '87? Can you pros out there read the tea leaves of the charts in time to save your wealth or make a killing?
United States' Debt-Burdened Economy
Posted by tradequick on 26th of Jul 2010 at 11:00 pm
In a series of three YouTube videos Bill Bonner of Agora Financial tells what to expect as the debt crises unfolds. For the first video, go to
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FCG8fBhJEk . Then
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsiHaR0hK18 . Then
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gU8E2_GZhkI .
Bonner recommends bonds until the government cranks up the printing press. He expects a Japan-like economy in the U.S. and ten really hard years of "The Great Correction".
My question: if this scenario unfolds, w ill we have the time and opportunity to switch from stocks, then to bonds, then to gold and silver coins as the crises deepens?
Mike Swanson may close short position.
Posted by tradequick on 23rd of Jul 2010 at 03:38 pm
Mike Swanson just sent an email to his subscribers of Wall Street Window that he may close out his SDS position. Here's what he said:
"Right now the S&P 500 is trading at 1103 and the DOW is up 112 points. I
went long SDS when the S&P 500 was about 1085 and considered 1100 and then
the 1110-1120 area as two key resistance points when I entered it and had
suggested using one of them as a stop loss point.
"If the market doesn't fade before the close then the S&P 500 will manage
to close above 1100. If it is above there in the last 10-15 minutes of the
day I will likely close out my short positions and then just sit back for a
few days and evaluate things. Andy and Kevin had been looking for the
market to breakthrough and then rally up to the long-term moving averages
and peak there. That would take the S&P 500 somewhere into the 1115-1125
zone.
"The danger is that if the market closes above 1100 more buyers could come
in next week and it would then seem likely that the market won't roll over
and really start to drop for another couple of weeks. It would have to go
sideways some more - from a higher level - and form a top. And you never
know the S&P 500 could go up to 1150 or something. So if I just assume
play it safe and get out and move to cash if the market closes above 1100.
One thing I'd like about being short right now is that the Russell 2000 is
doing better than the rest of the market and the NYSE a/d line went
through its recent resistance point yesterday - so at the moment more
stocks have been going up then down at a better than than the market
averages for the past few days, although Nasdaq and tech have been
lagging.
If I end up getting out before the close then I may re-enter up there at
some point in 2-3 weeks like Andy and Kevin have talked about.
If the markets reverse on the close and the S&P 500 closes back below 1100
then this action will look like a potential bull trap fake out.
And if I somehow get out here and end up getting faked out here myself
then I'll re-enter if the S&P 500 falls through 1055 and put a stop up
above 1100.
So bottom line unless the market fades on the close and we get the S&P 500
back below 1100 - I'd like to see it below 1095 - then I'm going to get out
of my current short positions and just evaluate things over the weekend
with an eye to get in later. I'd basically be losing one point on the SDS
position from where I got in."
Matt, some time ago I
TLT rising today
Posted by tradequick on 21st of Jul 2010 at 05:27 pm
Matt, some time ago I watched that video twice--the second time with a lot of stops and starts and thinking. If that video is true, won't the great mass of people fall off the big treadmill? Mind you, I cannot argue otherwise.
Then won't the government itself fall and chaos appear? Maybe marshall law will hold things together (perhaps that explains the big TASR rally today) I think Prechter thinks that civil order will endure and fiat money will be king. I just don't know.
Prechter's Deflation Theory
TLT rising today
Posted by tradequick on 21st of Jul 2010 at 04:54 pm
Only this last year, have I started to think along the lines of deflation rather than inflation after reading Prechter's ideas on the subject. I really don't understand what he says; but, if we have a fractional reserve banking system where money is created out of nothing, then, when defaults occur, does that money just disappear? And is it true that when money and liquidity begin to disappear, then government won't be able to print money fast enough to replace it during a massive contraction? Or can the government just throw money out of helicopters and solve the deflation problem? I know Prechter says "no". I wish I understood why!
StockCharts.com
5 min SPX - auto refresh tool
Posted by tradequick on 21st of Jul 2010 at 04:07 pm
Thanks for thinking of those folks that don't have a subscription to StockCharts. That was me until yesterday when I went whole hog with the "extra" and "real time" options. Now, I couldn't be more pleased. After struggling with GoogleFinance charts since last October when I started trading my own 401K account, I feel like I have put on a pair of glasses--I can see what's going on--now I can draw trend lines and fibs. That was really hard to do on those free Google Charts, and they had a nasty habit of freezing up when you got a dozen charts open at once.
Anyway I really appreciate your charts and the web addresses that you give out that allow non-members of StockCharts to get intraday stuff. That was a big advance for me. It's really easy to bookmark them and just keep clicking through them to stay updated, even without a membership in StockCharts. Ironically, it was you furnishing this free access to StockCharts that convinced me that I had to have the real thing.
That said, I recommend that, if someone out there is learning to trade like me, get StockCharts. It's well worth it.
Short Market Now?
Posted by tradequick on 21st of Jul 2010 at 11:16 am
Mike Swanson of WallStreetWindow is buying SDS in advance of Bernanke's speech today at 2:00 pm. Check out http://www.wallstreetwindow.com/content/node/16618 . In a blog to subscribers early this morning he said:
"In the past the market would often rally up into Bernanke appearances and then start to drop right as he started to talk. It seems likely to me that the traders buying yesterday were doing so ahead of Apple's earnings and Bernanke's speech.
"Last week we saw earnings season start and just about every single day the market has sold earnings. This Apple earnings report is really the only report that has helped the market out in any way.
"I'm pretty convinced that we have seen the peak of this earnings rally when the S&P 500 got near 1,100 this week. Right now the market has stiff resistance there. If somehow it were to trade straight up from here in the next two sessions and go through that level I do not think it would go anywhere. For the market to have a big sustainable rally it would need to go up to that level and then pause for a few days before breaking out - that is what the market would have to do in order to be bullish.
"I'm bearish and doubt that will happen,. Instead I think the market will trade up a little more and reverse back down again and break yesterday's low within a week to start another leg down to this bear market.
"If the market doesn't sell the opening today then I think it will probably continue higher until Bernanke's speech at 2:00 PM. That is a point at which it could easily peak out and start to drop again. I will likely start to bet against the stock market then by buying the SDS ultra-short ETF and placing a stop on it at its July low around $31.00.
"I want to give the position plenty of room in case the market were to test the 1,100 level this week. I also am leaving enough money in my account in cash to double the position at some point in the future if I want to - so it would be a 50% position."
In an email to subscribers around 10:00 a.m., he said:
" I am placing a long recommendation to buy SDS right now at the currently
trading price of 33.65 with a stop loss point of 31 a share. I explained
this before the bell my plans to buy SDS today.
I had been hoping that the market would act stronger off of the open and
rally more today into Bernanke's 2:00 PM testimony. It may still do that,
but so far today the market has gapped up and faded back down. Apple
which was the excitement of the morning gapped open and is currently
trading at a low of the day and the Nasdaq 100 are actually in the red.
So I took I went long now instead of waiting. I am likely to buy more
once SDS goes through 35.50 or if somehow the market does manage to trade
up more in the next few days. You can never get in something at an exact
top or bottom so you just have to take a position at some point and with
the market trading down off the open I want to make sure I get a
position."
Comments?
Thanks for the history lesson--it
History lesson
Posted by tradequick on 16th of Jul 2010 at 01:59 pm
Thanks for the history lesson--it kept me from bailing on SDS a few minutes ago. What do you see happening into the close today?
Title: Wow! I'm new to trading
The machine behind the curtain
Posted by tradequick on 14th of Jul 2010 at 10:42 am
I'm new to trading and that's the first example like that I've seen. Thanks for pointing it out.