Sam Collins of Investor Place reports a megaphone top for the Dow at     .  That is 

http://www.investorplace.com/news-opinion/daily-market-outlook/market-analysis-market-forms-bearish-horn-chart-pattern.html 

Guess the upload is not working for me.  I hit the browse button, picked the image file, but it didn't show.    I've got an 10 min chart on stockcharts, but do not know how to directly or indirectly upload it.

Just getting started with EW analysis and trading in general.  Hope my image uploads OK.  If you can see it and care to make a comment, I'd appreciate it.

ducksoup . . . Thanks for pointing out the difference in the charts.  That's news to me--I was unaware that an adjustment was being made.  The GoogleFinance charts are also adjusted like the SharpCharts.  I guess they do that because the 30-cent dividend paid out every month is reducing the value of the company as you go back in time. Or is it?

For the last ten trading days in the TLT charts (FreeStockCharts vs. SharpCharts) there is very little adjustment.  When you get back to Feb '09 the difference is more that $5. That could make a difference in how one interprets a chart.  

Is the current-day trading price for TLT always the same or very close in both charts?  Are the historical prices in the SharpChart constantly being adjusted as the company pays out more money through dividends?  What is happening here?  How should one think about this?

Your chart of TLT clearly shows the price congestion of Feb and Mar '09 overhead, but my chart shows that the price of TLT has cleared that hurdle.  Am I not seeing something? 

My chart:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p62779912587&a=206360844&listNum=2

I've been spare-time trading for less than a year, and I've never heard of the guy.  But his BAM (Beat-Any-Market) theory is intriguing.  I also watched some of his other videos.  His theories make as much sense to me as the other technical analysis methods I'm becoming familiar with--kind of like astrology--and that's a good thing coming from this old hippy.  However, I finally gave up on astrology--it took more intuition than I believed I could develop.  But I'm hanging with TA.  

It is amazing that trend lines can be drawn through three or more extreme points many, many times on random charts.  And those fib levels do work out often enough to give one pause.  So I'm convinced the market is not random.  

But how are we to take warnings like this from BAMTRADER?  My intuition (emotion, I guess) has got me on edge.  Maybe I've read too much Prechter or Bill Bonner.  Aren't these guys, who make a lot of sense, predicting something like BAMTRADER?  It's just that BAMTRADER says it's going to happen next week.  What do you all think of his warning and his technical analysis?  Anyone see the flash crash coming? . . .how about the crash of '87?  Can you pros out there read the tea leaves of the charts in time to save your wealth or make a killing?

In a series of three YouTube videos Bill Bonner of Agora Financial tells what to expect as the debt crises unfolds.  For the first video, go to  

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FCG8fBhJEk .  Then

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsiHaR0hK18 .  Then

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gU8E2_GZhkI .

Bonner recommends bonds until the government cranks up the printing press.  He expects a Japan-like economy in the U.S.  and ten really hard years of "The Great Correction".

My question:   if this scenario unfolds, w ill we have the time and opportunity to switch from stocks, then to bonds, then to gold and silver coins as the crises deepens?  

Mike Swanson just sent an email to his subscribers of Wall Street Window that he may close out his SDS position.  Here's what he said:

"Right now the S&P 500 is trading at 1103 and the DOW is up 112 points. I

went long SDS when the S&P 500 was about 1085 and considered 1100 and then

the 1110-1120 area as two key resistance points when I entered it and had

suggested using one of them as a stop loss point.

"If the market doesn't fade before the close then the S&P 500 will manage

to close above 1100. If it is above there in the last 10-15 minutes of the

day I will likely close out my short positions and then just sit back for a

few days and evaluate things. Andy and Kevin had been looking for the

market to breakthrough and then rally up to the long-term moving averages

and peak there. That would take the S&P 500 somewhere into the 1115-1125

zone.

"The danger is that if the market closes above 1100 more buyers could come

in next week and it would then seem likely that the market won't roll over

and really start to drop for another couple of weeks. It would have to go

sideways some more - from a higher level - and form a top. And you never

know the S&P 500 could go up to 1150 or something. So if I just assume

play it safe and get out and move to cash if the market closes above 1100.

One thing I'd like about being short right now is that the Russell 2000 is

doing better than the rest of the market and the NYSE a/d line went

through its recent resistance point yesterday - so at the moment more

stocks have been going up then down at a better than than the market

averages for the past few days, although Nasdaq and tech have been

lagging.

If I end up getting out before the close then I may re-enter up there at

some point in 2-3 weeks like Andy and Kevin have talked about.

If the markets reverse on the close and the S&P 500 closes back below 1100

then this action will look like a potential bull trap fake out.

And if I somehow get out here and end up getting faked out here myself

then I'll re-enter if the S&P 500 falls through 1055 and put a stop up

above 1100.

So bottom line unless the market fades on the close and we get the S&P 500

back below 1100 - I'd like to see it below 1095 - then I'm going to get out

of my current short positions and just evaluate things over the weekend

with an eye to get in later. I'd basically be losing one point on the SDS

position from where I got in."

Mike Swanson of WallStreetWindow is buying SDS in advance of Bernanke's speech today at 2:00 pm.  Check out http://www.wallstreetwindow.com/content/node/16618 . In a blog to subscribers early this morning  he said:

"In the past the market would often rally up into Bernanke appearances and then start to drop right as he started to talk. It seems likely to me that the traders buying yesterday were doing so ahead of Apple's earnings and Bernanke's speech.

"Last week we saw earnings season start and just about every single day the market has sold earnings. This Apple earnings report is really the only report that has helped the market out in any way.

"I'm pretty convinced that we have seen the peak of this earnings rally when the S&P 500 got near 1,100 this week. Right now the market has stiff resistance there. If somehow it were to trade straight up from here in the next two sessions and go through that level I do not think it would go anywhere. For the market to have a big sustainable rally it would need to go up to that level and then pause for a few days before breaking out - that is what the market would have to do in order to be bullish.

"I'm bearish and doubt that will happen,. Instead I think the market will trade up a little more and reverse back down again and break yesterday's low within a week to start another leg down to this bear market.

"If the market doesn't sell the opening today then I think it will probably continue higher until Bernanke's speech at 2:00 PM. That is a point at which it could easily peak out and start to drop again. I will likely start to bet against the stock market then by buying the SDS ultra-short ETF and placing a stop on it at its July low around $31.00.

"I want to give the position plenty of room in case the market were to test the 1,100 level this week. I also am leaving enough money in my account in cash to double the position at some point in the future if I want to - so it would be a 50% position."

In an email to subscribers around 10:00 a.m., he said:

" I am placing a long recommendation to buy SDS right now at the currently

trading price of 33.65 with a stop loss point of 31 a share.  I explained

this before the bell my plans to buy SDS today. 

I had been hoping that the market would act stronger off of the open and

rally more today into Bernanke's 2:00 PM testimony. It may still do that,

but so far today the market has gapped up and faded back down.  Apple

which was the excitement of the morning gapped open and is currently

trading at a low of the day and the Nasdaq 100 are actually in the red.

So I took I went long now instead of waiting.  I am likely to buy more

once SDS goes through 35.50 or if somehow the market does manage to trade

up more in the next few days.  You can never get in something at an exact

top or bottom so you just have to take a position at some point and with

the market trading down off the open I want to make sure I get a

position."

Comments?

I'm new to trading and that's the first example like that I've seen. Thanks for pointing it out.