SPX

The last two severe wedge breaks ended at the LOD. Although vol on the SPY is not very good, I don't expect much of a bounce going into the close if we take out $83.71 on the SPY soon

SRS

Small starter position. REITs may need refinancing, which govt will provide, but LT reduced rent, reduced consumer spending, etc has got to take it's toll at some point.  Maybe the basic underlying equities behind SRS are flawed, but SPG and action in IYR do support this move today.

SPX

Appears to be forming a H&S with a neckline at 845 on the 15 Min.  Projected target down to around 825 coincides with 50% Fib from recemt swing low to todays high.

These guys just can't get a break........

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/GM-recalling-15M-vehicles-apf-14915114.html

This article is more about the possibility of a dramatic downswing based on the current activity of GS and others relative to quant trading, but mentions SRS as an example of how disconnected equities will become to the market indexs, especially leveraged ETFs such as SRS.

The Incredibly Shrinking Market Liquidity, Or The Upcoming Black Swan Of Black Swans

http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/

rp

I posted the link to the first WSJ article last night as well.  Probably one of the most relevant of the group.

Here is the link to the organization's site that is lobbying for the TALP funds, for those who want to keep abreast of this important developement relative to SRS trading

http://www.cmsaglobal.org/

SRS

As many of us here trade SRS, you may want to read this article.  If in fact, the commercial re companies pull this off, and recieve TALF funds to "remedy" their debt problems, SRS will most likely take a nosedive, although it may be short lived. 

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123914790506498993.html

I think it depends on where we close on the SPX.  If at 805 -815, I would expect we go up tommorrow on "better than expected earnings", as it is the contrarian play since everyone expects horrible earnings this quarter.

Has the mark to market decision been made?  I thought I read it has, but some tv commentators I am watching state it is still being discussed, thanks

Doji?

In lieu of the Mark to Market thursday, maybe it is a time of indecision wehter to stay long, short or nuetral going into tommorrow.

Would anyone know when the decision is forthcoming tommorrow?  During the market, after?  Thanks

Anyone know whats driving the futures down?  DOW off 1.5%.

I had read the Pakistan Taliban threatened violence on the White House,and Israel is "telling" the US to deal with Iran or they will.

Have almost  forgotten the possibility of a political/terror event effecting the market in lieu of Geithner manipulating our tax dollars  so much recently.

Shouldn't the rt shoulder generally be equal to or less than the left?

SRS

Also, $55.80 is the 61.8 fib from yesterdays low to todays high.

SPX 5 MIN just had an inside period.  Break below LOD might take us lower or a break up over 802.97 higher.

XLF vol is on pace to be lower than Fridays sell off.  Also, vol on SPY appears on the same pace.  I would have thought XLF would have more buyers on Geithner's news.

I also read that private parties under the new plan will only have to put up  7% of the amount, the TARP would match this and 86% would be supported by us, the government.  Seems like another "sweet deal" for Wall Street, and putting the majority of the risk on the government, not the private sector.

Matt

Question.  Banks are weak and techs are strong.  Which one usually wins out, as far as driving the general market? Appears to me it's the banks as the DOW and NAZ are up and the SPX is down?  Thanks

As we wait for FOMC.

I dunno.

Vol has been pathetic on this rally, but everyone nows this.

Financials are holding up well and leading the way (less MA and V).

Everyone expects a drop, so…..

Everyone is also eyeballing 805 SPX, so……

So, I’m thinking we have a minimal drop then bust 805, when everyone and their dog gets long to 840, the shorts start wearing Dockers, but then we find out how &*$%’d we are (like April earnings) and we drop to new lows.

It just feels like this is the best way for the most people to lose the most money in this market, which is the only goal of Wall Street.

Matt

Can one make anything out of low SPY vol this am?  No buyer conviction?

Lowest since the rally began.  Thanks

Took the canary home today (GS). 

Agreee, when the two leaders fall to the curb, one has to think it's a sign, and MSFT has been performing rather badly (underachiever) during the rally, without todays action.