sounds like. If I read the story correctly: Austrian parliament
declined to vote on bailout funding for now, until a special
meeting later. So, no bailout funding decision at all has been made
yet, pro/con. Right?
I ask without any sarcasm. Does somebody here know? We know how
our numbers are fudged; do we know how reliable theirs are? Which
source or statistic has been the best true indicator?
Pettis writes as clearly as anyone about the unsustainable
structural dynamics. This is my interpretation, though I'm no
economist.
There certainly is an element of the worker bees subsidizing the
profligate drones.
However, it doesn't make sense to paint Germany as saint or
villain. Germany has long pursued an aggressive export policy which
was much aided by the currency union (Euro) and its own
export-financing policies.
Fine, except that net trade surpluses for Germany mean equal net
trade deficits in other countries. Excess import and consumption
(with unsustainable debt) by net buyer countries grew faster due to
cheap financing, courtesy of Germany's excellent credit rating.
Net deficit countries had no automatic mechanism for rebalancing
trade and debt, unlike when they had with a floating currency and
interest rates before. Checks and balances got out of whack.
It is to a great degree German banks that Eurobonds would be
saving. Honesty about who pays and who benefits from policy
decisions should make the hard choices easier for the public to
tolerate. I don't see a viable alternative to default, but that
might hurt the Germans as much or more than the Greeks.
with a trading partner that pegs its currency to promote
one-sided trade, hoards dollars, disregards intellectual property
rights, and subsidizes its industries in a way that
brutalizes competitors?
Not to say American trade policy & industry have an
untarnished record of their own, but it's hard to compete with two
different rulebooks.
It is weird that the same problem makes us fear two opposite
outcomes. Some day people will claim "it was obvious", but not
everyone who sees the problem today will get it right. Me
included.
Everybody knows hyperinflation via currency devaluation is one
way to write down debt that cannot be repaid on current terms.
On the other side are the deflationists, and people worried
about the overbought yen and Euro, and few liquid, reliable
alternatives to Treasuries.
Various governments' interventions and investor mood changes can
overwhelm whatever fundamental price you think is correct.
The only answer is to hedge against your own opinion with
long-term assets and to trade according to the technicals, ready to
turn on a dime.
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
Watchful waiting
Anyone buying gold here?
Posted by sankaty on 23rd of Sep 2011 at 10:40 am
Thanks, Zach
Which market is right?
Posted by sankaty on 14th of Sep 2011 at 01:55 pm
What is /zb?
Which market is right?
Posted by sankaty on 14th of Sep 2011 at 01:51 pm
Austrians deferred the vote
Austrailian Parilament did NOT vote for the expansion of the ...
Posted by sankaty on 14th of Sep 2011 at 10:41 am
sounds like. If I read the story correctly: Austrian parliament declined to vote on bailout funding for now, until a special meeting later. So, no bailout funding decision at all has been made yet, pro/con. Right?
I can't get the short audio clip, either
Tuesday's Newsletter
Posted by sankaty on 14th of Sep 2011 at 08:55 am
any tricks I should try?
How reliable are China's numbers?
China coming in to save the World!
Posted by sankaty on 12th of Sep 2011 at 03:06 pm
I ask without any sarcasm. Does somebody here know? We know how our numbers are fudged; do we know how reliable theirs are? Which source or statistic has been the best true indicator?
Thanks, Matt!
Gold Comments
Posted by sankaty on 7th of Sep 2011 at 10:54 am
Can't figure out
Gold Comments
Posted by sankaty on 7th of Sep 2011 at 10:48 am
why these daily GOLD charts update with a date of Sep 6 instead of Sep 7. Or is it just me?
Agreed.
problems with freestockcharts?
Posted by sankaty on 7th of Sep 2011 at 10:24 am
Chart drawing tools have gone wonky more often, too. I hope it's temporary, it's a cool website.
Read Michael Pettis
Any European members here care to share their insights on ...
Posted by sankaty on 6th of Sep 2011 at 11:45 am
Pettis writes as clearly as anyone about the unsustainable structural dynamics. This is my interpretation, though I'm no economist.
There certainly is an element of the worker bees subsidizing the profligate drones.
However, it doesn't make sense to paint Germany as saint or villain. Germany has long pursued an aggressive export policy which was much aided by the currency union (Euro) and its own export-financing policies.
Fine, except that net trade surpluses for Germany mean equal net trade deficits in other countries. Excess import and consumption (with unsustainable debt) by net buyer countries grew faster due to cheap financing, courtesy of Germany's excellent credit rating.
Net deficit countries had no automatic mechanism for rebalancing trade and debt, unlike when they had with a floating currency and interest rates before. Checks and balances got out of whack.
It is to a great degree German banks that Eurobonds would be saving. Honesty about who pays and who benefits from policy decisions should make the hard choices easier for the public to tolerate. I don't see a viable alternative to default, but that might hurt the Germans as much or more than the Greeks.
Maybe, but
This possiblity is gaining momentum
Posted by sankaty on 24th of Aug 2011 at 11:04 am
didn't Matt and Steve say that mid-trend H&S patterns aren't as predictive as trend-changing H&S patterns?
Sorry, clicked wrong button
ESLR
Posted by sankaty on 17th of Aug 2011 at 10:28 am
meant to post in off-topic thread. Sorry.
So how are we supposed to compete
ESLR
Posted by sankaty on 17th of Aug 2011 at 10:27 am
with a trading partner that pegs its currency to promote one-sided trade, hoards dollars, disregards intellectual property rights, and subsidizes its industries in a way that brutalizes competitors?
Not to say American trade policy & industry have an untarnished record of their own, but it's hard to compete with two different rulebooks.
Bingo!
ES Broke Down
Posted by sankaty on 11th of Aug 2011 at 09:15 am
Are you going to take profits
My snuggy blanket has been SRS and it is finally ...
Posted by sankaty on 8th of Aug 2011 at 10:43 am
along the way? Or just wait? Conundrum with a hockey stick chart.
Unforeseeable events can overwhelm fundamentals
Bonds-TLT-TBT
Posted by sankaty on 8th of Aug 2011 at 09:29 am
It is weird that the same problem makes us fear two opposite outcomes. Some day people will claim "it was obvious", but not everyone who sees the problem today will get it right. Me included.
Everybody knows hyperinflation via currency devaluation is one way to write down debt that cannot be repaid on current terms.
On the other side are the deflationists, and people worried about the overbought yen and Euro, and few liquid, reliable alternatives to Treasuries.
Various governments' interventions and investor mood changes can overwhelm whatever fundamental price you think is correct.
The only answer is to hedge against your own opinion with long-term assets and to trade according to the technicals, ready to turn on a dime.
Crushed? 10-15 pts seems tame considering the
S&P futures are getting crushed
Posted by sankaty on 29th of Jul 2011 at 07:21 am
magnitude of recent rallies and our fundamental troubles.
Start by searching by keywords like GDX system
Short the GDX ETF
Posted by sankaty on 26th of Jul 2011 at 03:03 pm
There has been a lot of discussion on this in recent months.
What do the blue lines represent?
this too...
Posted by sankaty on 20th of Jul 2011 at 09:32 am
Or if you can't say, will you kindly post an update? Cool charts, it is always fun following your posts. Thanks.
Off-topic but funny
Treasury and market correlation
Posted by sankaty on 18th of Jul 2011 at 01:16 pm
I read "fierce market sell-off on very bad breadth" as "fierce market sell-off on very bad breath". Wrong, but somehow fitting.