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Watchful waiting

Anyone buying gold here?

Posted by sankaty on 23rd of Sep 2011 at 10:40 am

Thanks, Zach

Which market is right?

Posted by sankaty on 14th of Sep 2011 at 01:55 pm

What is /zb?

Which market is right?

Posted by sankaty on 14th of Sep 2011 at 01:51 pm

sounds like. If I read the story correctly: Austrian parliament declined to vote on bailout funding for now, until a special meeting later. So, no bailout funding decision at all has been made yet, pro/con. Right?

I can't get the short audio clip, either

Tuesday's Newsletter

Posted by sankaty on 14th of Sep 2011 at 08:55 am

any tricks I should try?

I ask without any sarcasm. Does somebody here know? We know how our numbers are fudged; do we know how reliable theirs are? Which source or statistic has been the best true indicator?

Thanks, Matt!

Gold Comments

Posted by sankaty on 7th of Sep 2011 at 10:54 am

Can't figure out

Gold Comments

Posted by sankaty on 7th of Sep 2011 at 10:48 am

why these daily GOLD charts update with a date of Sep 6 instead of Sep 7. Or is it just me?

Agreed.

problems with freestockcharts?

Posted by sankaty on 7th of Sep 2011 at 10:24 am

Chart drawing tools have gone wonky more often, too. I hope it's temporary, it's a cool website.

Pettis writes as clearly as anyone about the unsustainable structural dynamics. This is my interpretation, though I'm no economist.

There certainly is an element of the worker bees subsidizing the profligate drones.

However, it doesn't make sense to paint Germany as saint or villain. Germany has long pursued an aggressive export policy which was much aided by the currency union (Euro) and its own export-financing policies.

Fine, except that net trade surpluses for Germany mean equal net trade deficits in other countries. Excess import and consumption (with unsustainable debt) by net buyer countries grew faster due to cheap financing, courtesy of Germany's excellent credit rating.

Net deficit countries had no automatic mechanism for rebalancing trade and debt, unlike when they had with a floating currency and interest rates before. Checks and balances got out of whack.

It is to a great degree German banks that Eurobonds would be saving. Honesty about who pays and who benefits from policy decisions should make the hard choices easier for the public to tolerate. I don't see a viable alternative to default, but that might hurt the Germans as much or more than the Greeks.

Maybe, but

This possiblity is gaining momentum

Posted by sankaty on 24th of Aug 2011 at 11:04 am

didn't Matt and Steve say that mid-trend H&S patterns aren't as predictive as trend-changing H&S patterns?

Sorry, clicked wrong button

ESLR

Posted by sankaty on 17th of Aug 2011 at 10:28 am

meant to post in off-topic thread. Sorry.

So how are we supposed to compete

ESLR

Posted by sankaty on 17th of Aug 2011 at 10:27 am

with a trading partner that pegs its currency to promote one-sided trade, hoards dollars, disregards intellectual property rights, and subsidizes its industries in a  way that brutalizes competitors?

Not to say American trade policy & industry have an untarnished record of their own, but it's hard to compete with two different rulebooks.

Bingo!

ES Broke Down

Posted by sankaty on 11th of Aug 2011 at 09:15 am

along the way? Or just wait? Conundrum with a hockey stick chart.

It is weird that the same problem makes us fear two opposite outcomes. Some day people will claim "it was obvious", but not everyone who sees the problem today will get it right. Me included.

Everybody knows hyperinflation via currency devaluation is one way to write down debt that cannot be repaid on current terms.

On the other side are the deflationists, and people worried about the overbought yen and Euro, and few liquid, reliable alternatives to Treasuries.

Various governments' interventions and investor mood changes can overwhelm whatever fundamental price you think is correct.

The only answer is to hedge against your own opinion with long-term assets and to trade according to the technicals, ready to turn on a dime.

 

magnitude of recent rallies and our fundamental troubles.

There has been a lot of discussion on this in recent months.

What do the blue lines represent?

this too...

Posted by sankaty on 20th of Jul 2011 at 09:32 am

Or if you can't say, will you kindly post an update? Cool charts, it is always fun following your posts. Thanks.

Off-topic but funny

Treasury and market correlation

Posted by sankaty on 18th of Jul 2011 at 01:16 pm

I read "fierce market sell-off on very bad breadth" as "fierce market sell-off on very bad breath". Wrong, but somehow fitting.

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