Posted by peterwelsh on 13th of Jul 2009 at 02:06 pm
How about >100! I will try to find the number but based on
forward looking earnings it is like 120 something that last I
heard. In fact, I think the last quarter showed negative
earnings.
Posted by peterwelsh on 2nd of Jul 2009 at 03:05 pm
Bill, when used correctly it looks pretty fun. I am guessing it
is only a matter of time when some drunk injures/kills someone and
the lawsuit will follow.
Does anyone have any resources on controlling your emotions when
it comes to trading? I know, follow your system, and if I did I
think I would be quite successful. However, when the battle is
engaged and the trade goes against me for a short time, I bail.
Inevitably, the trade comes back in my favor and I could kick
myself. I know this is the age old problem with trading and
seperates the good traders from the bad. Should I go back to paper
trading for a while until I get my confidence back?
Posted by peterwelsh on 22nd of May 2009 at 01:04 pm
Speaking of the PPT, there was a gentleman on CNBC the other day
when I was home for lunch and they were making fun of the guy for
even suggesting that the PPT existed. It was pretty rude and pretty
weird.
I saw an article this morning that the Obama administration is
going after tax loopholes for Insurance companies and in particular
the tax benefits to the build up of cash value in company owned
life insurance policies. A short of the insurers may be in
the future. I see they are up today.
Posted by peterwelsh on 5th of May 2009 at 01:08 pm
I am primarily fee based so I do not have to make investments to
get a commission. I do have a limit of 20% cash in a portfolio
otherwise the client does not pay on anything over 20% which cost
me some money back when the markets were melting down and I did
have clients over that percentage. Normal I will use short term
bonds for excess but heck, nothing felt safe then.
As some of you may know from a few earlier posts, I am a
financial advisor who practices technical analysis in how I manage
my clients portfolios. I was told yesterday by the VP of our
trust/investment area that market timing does not work and that if
I practice it I will need to find a new place to hang my shingle.
He proved it with a one page item from one of our money management
firms that states that the largest one day moves can come at the
bottom of markets and if you are not in the market you will miss
them.
I have tried on numerous occasions to try to get him to see the
light and that modern portfolio theory is flawed. Did any equity
equity class that are normally used in asset allocation thrive over
the last year? My clients missed most of the carnage and are
happier for it. I guess the fact that my fees have stayed up while
theirs have all taken hits doesn't matter.
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met
in March indicates that the economy has continued to contract,
though the pace of contraction appears to be somewhat slower.
Household spending has shown signs of stabilizing but remains
constrained by ongoing job losses, lower housing wealth, and tight
credit. Weak sales prospects and difficulties in obtaining credit
have led businesses to cut back on inventories, fixed investment,
and staffing. Although the economic outlook has improved modestly
since the March meeting, partly reflecting some easing of financial
market conditions, economic activity is likely to remain weak for a
time. Nonetheless, the Committee continues to anticipate that
policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions,
fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will contribute to
a gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth in a context of
price stability.
In light of increasing economic slack here and abroad, the
Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued. Moreover, the
Committee sees some risk that inflation could persist for a time
below rates that best foster economic growth and price stability in
the longer term.
In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will employ all
available tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price
stability. The Committee will maintain the target range for the
federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and anticipates that
economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels
of the federal funds rate for an extended period. As previously
announced, to provide support to mortgage lending and housing
markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit
markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of up to $1.25
trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and up to $200
billion of agency debt by the end of the year. In addition, the
Federal Reserve will buy up to $300 billion of Treasury securities
by autumn. The Committee will continue to evaluate the timing and
overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the
evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets. The
Federal Reserve is facilitating the extension of credit to
households and businesses and supporting the functioning of
financial markets through a range of liquidity programs. The
Committee will continue to carefully monitor the size and
composition of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet in light of
financial and economic developments.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S.
Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A.
Duke; Charles L. Evans; Donald L. Kohn; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis
P. Lockhart; Daniel K. Tarullo; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L.
Yellen.
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
SPX PE
S&P500
Posted by peterwelsh on 13th of Jul 2009 at 02:06 pm
How about >100! I will try to find the number but based on forward looking earnings it is like 120 something that last I heard. In fact, I think the last quarter showed negative earnings.
Can you say lawsuit!
for all you adventures seekers on BPT check this video ...
Posted by peterwelsh on 2nd of Jul 2009 at 03:05 pm
Bill, when used correctly it looks pretty fun. I am guessing it is only a matter of time when some drunk injures/kills someone and the lawsuit will follow.
Thanks
Emotion
Posted by peterwelsh on 8th of Jun 2009 at 10:53 am
Thanks ravun for the info. I will read and digest.
Thanks to all. That is what makes this community great.
Makes sense cwa, I had
Emotion
Posted by peterwelsh on 8th of Jun 2009 at 10:22 am
Makes sense cwa, I had thought about that. You would think know that my trades usually work out if I let them go would be enough. Guess not.
Thanks rp, I used to
Posted by peterwelsh on 8th of Jun 2009 at 10:20 am
Thanks rp, I used to drink it back in the day. May have to start again.
Emotion
Posted by peterwelsh on 8th of Jun 2009 at 10:13 am
Does anyone have any resources on controlling your emotions when it comes to trading? I know, follow your system, and if I did I think I would be quite successful. However, when the battle is engaged and the trade goes against me for a short time, I bail. Inevitably, the trade comes back in my favor and I could kick myself. I know this is the age old problem with trading and seperates the good traders from the bad. Should I go back to paper trading for a while until I get my confidence back?
Any help would be appreciated!
What are the volume statistics?
cheers....Miller time
Posted by peterwelsh on 29th of May 2009 at 04:05 pm
What are the volume statistics? I looked about 10 minutes ago and volume on the Dow was 230ish and jumped to 350ish in about 10 min.
Look at the volume on
I remember hearing people in the past post on the ...
Posted by peterwelsh on 29th of May 2009 at 11:03 am
Look at the volume on GM. People are trying to dump their shares.
Title: SDS Bailed to soon.......darn it.
Posted by peterwelsh on 22nd of May 2009 at 03:56 pm
Bailed to soon.......darn it.
Speaking of the PPT, there
Come Back @ 2:30PM Est
Posted by peterwelsh on 22nd of May 2009 at 01:04 pm
Speaking of the PPT, there was a gentleman on CNBC the other day when I was home for lunch and they were making fun of the guy for even suggesting that the PPT existed. It was pretty rude and pretty weird.
Sears (SHLD)
Posted by peterwelsh on 22nd of May 2009 at 10:47 am
Did you see the jump that Sears took this morning on better than expected earnings. May be a play on a pullback.
Obama going after Insurers
Posted by peterwelsh on 18th of May 2009 at 01:58 pm
I saw an article this morning that the Obama administration is going after tax loopholes for Insurance companies and in particular the tax benefits to the build up of cash value in company owned life insurance policies. A short of the insurers may be in the future. I see they are up today.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124260337667928567.html
APOL
Posted by peterwelsh on 14th of May 2009 at 11:58 am
Would you consider this a bull flag?
Energizer Bunny
Posted by peterwelsh on 8th of May 2009 at 02:49 pm
That is what this markets seems like.
Dodger, I did mention that
Market Timing
Posted by peterwelsh on 5th of May 2009 at 01:12 pm
Dodger, I did mention that but he is so stubborn that it doesn't sink in. His fees are down 35-40% and mine are up. Do you think that matters, no.
I am primarily fee based
Market Timing
Posted by peterwelsh on 5th of May 2009 at 01:08 pm
I am primarily fee based so I do not have to make investments to get a commission. I do have a limit of 20% cash in a portfolio otherwise the client does not pay on anything over 20% which cost me some money back when the markets were melting down and I did have clients over that percentage. Normal I will use short term bonds for excess but heck, nothing felt safe then.
Sorry for the rant.
There isn't a yet Dylan,
Market Timing
Posted by peterwelsh on 5th of May 2009 at 01:00 pm
There isn't a yet Dylan, I will not manage that way. I will become independant.
I know, that is one
Market Timing
Posted by peterwelsh on 5th of May 2009 at 12:58 pm
I know, that is one of the things that I tell my clients to get them to understand why I am more active.
Market Timing
Posted by peterwelsh on 5th of May 2009 at 12:52 pm
As some of you may know from a few earlier posts, I am a financial advisor who practices technical analysis in how I manage my clients portfolios. I was told yesterday by the VP of our trust/investment area that market timing does not work and that if I practice it I will need to find a new place to hang my shingle. He proved it with a one page item from one of our money management firms that states that the largest one day moves can come at the bottom of markets and if you are not in the market you will miss them.
I have tried on numerous occasions to try to get him to see the light and that modern portfolio theory is flawed. Did any equity equity class that are normally used in asset allocation thrive over the last year? My clients missed most of the carnage and are happier for it. I guess the fact that my fees have stayed up while theirs have all taken hits doesn't matter.
Fed Statement
Posted by peterwelsh on 29th of Apr 2009 at 02:23 pm
Press Release
Release Date: April 29, 2009
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that the economy has continued to contract, though the pace of contraction appears to be somewhat slower. Household spending has shown signs of stabilizing but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Weak sales prospects and difficulties in obtaining credit have led businesses to cut back on inventories, fixed investment, and staffing. Although the economic outlook has improved modestly since the March meeting, partly reflecting some easing of financial market conditions, economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time. Nonetheless, the Committee continues to anticipate that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will contribute to a gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth in a context of price stability.
In light of increasing economic slack here and abroad, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued. Moreover, the Committee sees some risk that inflation could persist for a time below rates that best foster economic growth and price stability in the longer term.
In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and anticipates that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. As previously announced, to provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of up to $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and up to $200 billion of agency debt by the end of the year. In addition, the Federal Reserve will buy up to $300 billion of Treasury securities by autumn. The Committee will continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets. The Federal Reserve is facilitating the extension of credit to households and businesses and supporting the functioning of financial markets through a range of liquidity programs. The Committee will continue to carefully monitor the size and composition of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet in light of financial and economic developments.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Donald L. Kohn; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Daniel K. Tarullo; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen.