as steve emphasized last night, the indicators follow the market
and are not predictors...basically I see the neg div too but also
know that with a strong enough move they all get obliterated OR can
set up even longer or bigger divergences for a couple days before
playing out...just be careful
OK so the last six NFP were down days. And tomorrow could be #7.
But as far as mutual fund Monday being the 8th of 9th that was
down, I note that the SPY barely closed negative, 2 ticks and to me
it suggests the market wants to pop higher. So maybe a rally off
the numbers into 10 am or so and then a decline the rest of the
day??
However the market could just as easily drop to make a bigger
wave 4 before rallying in a wave 5 up next week.
Ok I just caught up with this board. This is what I am
thinking...this is a blast off possibly to over 1300 on the SPX as
I see this as the C wave up of wave 2....
Since wave 3 down will be a doozy once it gets rolling, I
believe this trade will eventually be a winner if indeed we are
asked to hold out that long.
Remember some trades can run 3-4 months and maybe
longer.
However if the system says get out Thursday or Friday on a pull
back, that will mean it will probably re-short from a higher
level.I still have faith!
I did not see was any specific option hedging posts offered as
we dropped last week but I may have missed them (as I said i have
been out a while and just catching up now). This hedging may be
something to really get into especially if a trade is up and down
and drags into a month or longer situation!!
I can see the dollar rallying to the top of the wedge forcing
the MM down to even further oversold and THEN breaking down to
allow the MM to rally strongly!! So in a perverse way, it can do
both.
i will add longs on a back test of the broken wedge trend
line....the 5 min mod macd has been on a buy since the lows...30
min still a ways off but pos divergences building
using a combo of the 5 min and 30 min version was able to trade
the mod macd for a profit early this morning and put the short
trade back on again mid-day...
even though indicators suggested to stay short, I took profits
again before close. Hey I dont need to see it gap up on me
tomorrow, and I can better bemoan what could have been if it gaps
down tomorrow.
Something suggests to me that we may see a throw over for D and
a higher high than 1277 that blows this up..gonna have to monitor
this and that modified macd for the turn down or break
out.
well that mod macd rolled to an initial buy yesterday midday,
but did I take that trade, nope. This corrective wave action has me
flummoxed but the big moves seem to be caught by mod macd. I like
the 5 ema a bit easier to follow!!
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sure BUT
major negative divergence setting up
Posted by perthx on 2nd of Dec 2011 at 10:14 am
as steve emphasized last night, the indicators follow the market and are not predictors...basically I see the neg div too but also know that with a strong enough move they all get obliterated OR can set up even longer or bigger divergences for a couple days before playing out...just be careful
any news due at 10am today??
Posted by perthx on 2nd of Dec 2011 at 09:53 am
any news or other data due at 10am today??
after 6 down time for an up day?
Non-farm payroll streak at six
Posted by perthx on 1st of Dec 2011 at 11:38 pm
OK so the last six NFP were down days. And tomorrow could be #7. But as far as mutual fund Monday being the 8th of 9th that was down, I note that the SPY barely closed negative, 2 ticks and to me it suggests the market wants to pop higher. So maybe a rally off the numbers into 10 am or so and then a decline the rest of the day??
However the market could just as easily drop to make a bigger wave 4 before rallying in a wave 5 up next week.
could that upper downtrend line
SPX 60 min
Posted by perthx on 1st of Dec 2011 at 03:40 pm
could that upper downtrend line be the neckline of a bigger inverse H&S pattern??
Spy system can run a while
Posted by perthx on 1st of Dec 2011 at 12:02 am
Ok I just caught up with this board. This is what I am thinking...this is a blast off possibly to over 1300 on the SPX as I see this as the C wave up of wave 2....
Since wave 3 down will be a doozy once it gets rolling, I believe this trade will eventually be a winner if indeed we are asked to hold out that long. Remember some trades can run 3-4 months and maybe longer.
However if the system says get out Thursday or Friday on a pull back, that will mean it will probably re-short from a higher level.I still have faith!
I did not see was any specific option hedging posts offered as we dropped last week but I may have missed them (as I said i have been out a while and just catching up now). This hedging may be something to really get into especially if a trade is up and down and drags into a month or longer situation!!
this market can do both
UUP/ US Dollar 60 min
Posted by perthx on 20th of Nov 2011 at 10:07 pm
I can see the dollar rallying to the top of the wedge forcing the MM down to even further oversold and THEN breaking down to allow the MM to rally strongly!! So in a perverse way, it can do both.
i say back to 1214.5 support
SPX 5 min
Posted by perthx on 18th of Nov 2011 at 02:26 pm
and then a push up and through to 1230-1235
so much for a solid 4 hour bar
Posted by perthx on 18th of Nov 2011 at 12:53 pm
to engulf the previous one per last night's report...it was something to watch for in any case!
if we break out....
SPX 5 min
Posted by perthx on 17th of Nov 2011 at 03:04 pm
i will add longs on a back test of the broken wedge trend line....the 5 min mod macd has been on a buy since the lows...30 min still a ways off but pos divergences building
traded mod macd for profits today
Posted by perthx on 16th of Nov 2011 at 04:04 pm
using a combo of the 5 min and 30 min version was able to trade the mod macd for a profit early this morning and put the short trade back on again mid-day...
even though indicators suggested to stay short, I took profits again before close. Hey I dont need to see it gap up on me tomorrow, and I can better bemoan what could have been if it gaps down tomorrow.
shame on you IF
My big move is this weekend to the new house
Posted by perthx on 15th of Nov 2011 at 02:35 pm
you are making a move but not out of IL, to a tax free state....those taxes could pay for a nanny or another vacation or to create more BPT jobs...:)
could this 5 min channel
SPX 5 Update
Posted by perthx on 14th of Nov 2011 at 03:20 pm
be considered a big bull flag??
saf10000, check your inbox
lol mod macd did it again
Posted by perthx on 11th of Nov 2011 at 02:46 pm
these charts were mostly posted by Matt/Steve here...and the one with the ADX by angelo851
all the best.
looks good but
SPX 15 min triangle view
Posted by perthx on 11th of Nov 2011 at 02:23 pm
Something suggests to me that we may see a throw over for D and a higher high than 1277 that blows this up..gonna have to monitor this and that modified macd for the turn down or break out.
lol mod macd did it again
Posted by perthx on 11th of Nov 2011 at 10:03 am
well that mod macd rolled to an initial buy yesterday midday, but did I take that trade, nope. This corrective wave action has me flummoxed but the big moves seem to be caught by mod macd. I like the 5 ema a bit easier to follow!!
nice comment windy
ES15
Posted by perthx on 11th of Nov 2011 at 09:38 am
seems to have hit on the head so far
msaini, check inbox
something to watch intra day
Posted by perthx on 9th of Nov 2011 at 01:25 pm
for a message
not spooky but important
11/11/11
Posted by perthx on 8th of Nov 2011 at 12:45 pm
important day as it is WW I armistice also know as Remembrance Day, or Veteran's Day in US
wave C higher than 1292??
SPX 15 min
Posted by perthx on 7th of Nov 2011 at 04:36 pm
or do you expect it to fall well short of that before becoming well overbought?
Otherwise I suppose wave 3 should just blast higher.
Leishman is such a tool
Posted by perthx on 7th of Nov 2011 at 12:34 pm
man what a loser that guy is, he is fully qualified to be an Obama's economic adviser.