$VIX coming up on support here; however, by the nature of how it
dropped, it sure seems like it wants to keep plunging lower.
Implications on the market? Markets don't top on really
low $VIX readings -- usually they top on $VIX divergent readings.
If $VIX breaks down here, the melt up might continue for many
more weeks.
With both stock markets and housing markets (hot ones) hitting
all time highs, the homebuilders sure ain't buying the hype.
D.R. Horton 37% off its 52 wk high and looks very much like a
HS topping pattern.
1) it was an inside day for most indices. Yeah, big up
day, but still not really doing anything trend-wise.
2) $NYMO was pretty pathetic today -- I suppose this is a
breadth indicator. Closed outside the bb yesterday, then back
inside today; however, for a mini-"kick-off" move, it was a pretty
lackluster reading.
3) $NYAD cumulative was also lagging badly today -- usually
makes a new high in advance of the $SPX (typically in this 4+ year
bull) -- but it is quite far from that.
Anybody have some good breadth indicators they use?
I think it was part of a large economic conference featuring
many speakers; don't think it was a prepared statement, but rather
a roundtable discussion -- maybe we'll read about the content this
weekend.
I was too chicken to buy yesterday
even though none of them broke
support. Unless this breakout fails, seems there are many
days left in bank rally. Amazing to see US banks become a
safe haven as global markets turned down hard this week (brazil,
china, emerging markets in general).
Instead of hedging with options, there was a heavy sell-off on
very good news today. Much different than the gov't shutdown
scares of last December and Sept.
small caps just underwent about the biggest correction all
year.... about the time when the switch gets flipped and bots go
wild. But this time, $VIX is subdued.... bonds are
subdued.... no fear at all. Lots of puking, but $VIX has a
long way to go.
China looks pretty weak, but the Nikkei is a massive coiled
spring right now. Amazing how much stuff seems to be hinging
on the Yen.... Some follow through on Japan could see it at that
support line very soon.
Check out the daily volume on SOCL today breaking some key
technical levels. Don't know if the top is in for this bull,
but SOCL has all the makings of a parabolic mania that is rapidly
ending. Read a funny tweet: for people buying TWTR, keep in
mind, your local corner store and your paperboy are more profitable
than TWTR. It could very well be that in 1-3 years time, we
all look back at this and say "wow, very few people made money on
this deal..... and Joe Public got screwed".
Seems like either people are freeing up money to use to buy
TWTR, or are using the distraction to try and get out of Momo
stocks, but all of them are getting smoked today -- LNKD, Z, FB,
TSLA, SCTY -- you name it, it's getting whacked.
$DAX now slightly exceeding the price aspect of this symmetry
off the 09 lows. Also some fudging in there with when this
uptrend actually started (sept or oct 2011).
Looks bear flaggy? Wouldn't surprise me to see some more
grinding higher in indices if $vix breaks down.... particularly
because that would negate a lot of the $VIX divergence that was in
place.
TLT down 1.8% on the week despite Yellen warming up on deck and
some lip service that taper talk is nonsense and QE will
continue.
If anybody wants to see what a "crowded exit" looks like in
physical terms, here it is: some Chinese exchange (not quite sure
what) where real estate speculators are trying to cash out before
some new policy is enacted.
The last 3 up days in the $SPX have been with a declining $NYMO.
This has not been a very reliable indicator over the last
couple of years, but having said that, don't remember 3 straight
days of divergence.
Newsletter
Subscribe to our email list for regular free market updates
as well as a chance to get coupons!
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
EMB -- emerging market bonds
Posted by kalinm on 12th of Nov 2013 at 03:28 pm
EMB getting hit pretty good along with EEM. Wonder what's going on?
$VIX at key juncture
Posted by kalinm on 11th of Nov 2013 at 02:30 pm
$VIX coming up on support here; however, by the nature of how it dropped, it sure seems like it wants to keep plunging lower. Implications on the market? Markets don't top on really low $VIX readings -- usually they top on $VIX divergent readings. If $VIX breaks down here, the melt up might continue for many more weeks.
D.R. Horton hears a who!
Posted by kalinm on 11th of Nov 2013 at 01:51 pm
With both stock markets and housing markets (hot ones) hitting all time highs, the homebuilders sure ain't buying the hype. D.R. Horton 37% off its 52 wk high and looks very much like a HS topping pattern.
Inside day and breadth
Posted by kalinm on 8th of Nov 2013 at 06:34 pm
A few points about today:
1) it was an inside day for most indices. Yeah, big up day, but still not really doing anything trend-wise.
2) $NYMO was pretty pathetic today -- I suppose this is a breadth indicator. Closed outside the bb yesterday, then back inside today; however, for a mini-"kick-off" move, it was a pretty lackluster reading.
3) $NYAD cumulative was also lagging badly today -- usually makes a new high in advance of the $SPX (typically in this 4+ year bull) -- but it is quite far from that.
Anybody have some good breadth indicators they use?
I think it was part
Reminder: Bernanke speaking today at 3:30 PM EST
Posted by kalinm on 8th of Nov 2013 at 06:27 pm
I think it was part of a large economic conference featuring many speakers; don't think it was a prepared statement, but rather a roundtable discussion -- maybe we'll read about the content this weekend.
I was too chicken to
$BKX looks ok
Posted by kalinm on 8th of Nov 2013 at 10:46 am
I was too chicken to buy yesterday even though none of them broke support. Unless this breakout fails, seems there are many days left in bank rally. Amazing to see US banks become a safe haven as global markets turned down hard this week (brazil, china, emerging markets in general).
Massive day for the banks
$BKX looks ok
Posted by kalinm on 8th of Nov 2013 at 10:23 am
Massive day for the banks
Small cap and VIX
Posted by kalinm on 7th of Nov 2013 at 06:02 pm
Instead of hedging with options, there was a heavy sell-off on very good news today. Much different than the gov't shutdown scares of last December and Sept.
TWTR/FB comparison
Posted by kalinm on 7th of Nov 2013 at 04:20 pm
FB: Open 42.05; High 45; Low 38; Close 38.23 on 580M shares
TWTR: Open 45.1; High 50.1; Low 44.0; Close 44.85 on 117M shares
Pretty crazy stuff.
It is different this time...
Posted by kalinm on 7th of Nov 2013 at 02:44 pm
small caps just underwent about the biggest correction all year.... about the time when the switch gets flipped and bots go wild. But this time, $VIX is subdued.... bonds are subdued.... no fear at all. Lots of puking, but $VIX has a long way to go.
$nikkei will be interesting -- coiled spring
Posted by kalinm on 7th of Nov 2013 at 01:41 pm
China looks pretty weak, but the Nikkei is a massive coiled spring right now. Amazing how much stuff seems to be hinging on the Yen.... Some follow through on Japan could see it at that support line very soon.
Surprise pop and drop for Europe
Posted by kalinm on 7th of Nov 2013 at 12:54 pm
Particularly hard hit were Spain and Italy -- lots of interesting action today.
$BKX looks ok
Posted by kalinm on 7th of Nov 2013 at 11:45 am
If SPX wants higher prices, I think banks and financials could get them there. Thoughts?
Check out the daily volume
Is it me??
Posted by kalinm on 7th of Nov 2013 at 11:03 am
Check out the daily volume on SOCL today breaking some key technical levels. Don't know if the top is in for this bull, but SOCL has all the makings of a parabolic mania that is rapidly ending. Read a funny tweet: for people buying TWTR, keep in mind, your local corner store and your paperboy are more profitable than TWTR. It could very well be that in 1-3 years time, we all look back at this and say "wow, very few people made money on this deal..... and Joe Public got screwed".
Seems like either people are
Is it me??
Posted by kalinm on 7th of Nov 2013 at 10:31 am
Seems like either people are freeing up money to use to buy TWTR, or are using the distraction to try and get out of Momo stocks, but all of them are getting smoked today -- LNKD, Z, FB, TSLA, SCTY -- you name it, it's getting whacked.
$indu megaphone?
Posted by kalinm on 7th of Nov 2013 at 09:24 am
Looks like it will open at resistance, but unless we reverse, this is only a possibility.
$DAX price and time
Posted by kalinm on 7th of Nov 2013 at 08:13 am
$DAX now slightly exceeding the price aspect of this symmetry off the 09 lows. Also some fudging in there with when this uptrend actually started (sept or oct 2011).
Thoughts on $VIX?
Posted by kalinm on 1st of Nov 2013 at 03:55 pm
Looks bear flaggy? Wouldn't surprise me to see some more grinding higher in indices if $vix breaks down.... particularly because that would negate a lot of the $VIX divergence that was in place.
What Yellen is up against
Posted by kalinm on 1st of Nov 2013 at 12:39 pm
http://business.financialpost.com/2013/11/01/property-hot-spots-from-canada-to-china-renew-easy-money-bubble-fears/
TLT down 1.8% on the week despite Yellen warming up on deck and some lip service that taper talk is nonsense and QE will continue.
If anybody wants to see what a "crowded exit" looks like in physical terms, here it is: some Chinese exchange (not quite sure what) where real estate speculators are trying to cash out before some new policy is enacted.
3 days of $NYMO divergence
Posted by kalinm on 29th of Oct 2013 at 11:01 am
The last 3 up days in the $SPX have been with a declining $NYMO. This has not been a very reliable indicator over the last couple of years, but having said that, don't remember 3 straight days of divergence.