Rbreese, Not many things are up on the year; do you anticipate
continued outperformance in QQQ, IWM, SPY and DIA until year end?
Or do you think EEM, FXI, EWZ play some catch up?
sure, with weekly bullish MACD cross and timing of previous
corrections, it really doesn't look like we get a meaningful
correction until maybe sometime in early 2014. The other
thing that seems strange is the number of headlines these days
talking about stock bubbles. I'm not sure what to think of
that (it's not very quantifiable).
With MACD 1,200 setting, you get # SP points away from the 200
day MA. Interesting setting (credits to Cobra). 150
points away from 200 MA is very far away (we are 160 points above
now). Another interesting point: In the last two bull
markets, the LONGEST we have gone without touching the 200 MA is 12
months. We are at 12 months now and it would take a few weeks
at a minimum to do a 160 point correction from here.
Definitely an outlier event. Also interesting that this
levitating market trick happens at the beginning "kick-off" phase
of a bull, and at the ending "manic" phase -- panic buying.
This might be the most panicked market of all time.
There's a lot going on in this chart of weekly Dow. First,
major corrections (in the 10-20% variety), tend to happen at exact
cycle periods (about 17 months apart -- red vertical lines).
Second, closing outside the upper weekly bb marks either the
beginning of a long rally (initial thrust), or very close to the
end (panic wave). Third, major divergences in the MACD must
be in place for a sizeable correction to take place (this past week
marked a bullish MACD cross, so a major correction seems highly
unlikely in the next 4-6 weeks). One other note: extreme
bullish sentiment of the last six weeks points to a longer rally as
well (during initial kick-off phases, sentiment is VERY bullish).
Sell-offs happen only after sentiment has been kicked down
some notches (contrary to what most people think).
Just as TA tells us, when there is no overhead resistance, price
gains are sudden and usually surprises are to the upside.
Here are three 10% rallies (to 15% over the previous 2007 all
time high). Not sure if this rally is related to the prior
two (maybe it goes a multiple of them). But amazing how
quickly 10% can be had in this market.
Doesn't happen often. Sometimes signals that we are
over-heated and due for a correction; other times signals that we
are over-heated and can get more over-heated. Amazing that
this last spike might have us close above this channel, exceed a
major symmetry target and close above upper b,b. Very
impressive week!
darn... no position in this, but should have realized that how
formidable the support was on Monday. 10% move this week
doesn't negate HS pattern, just would have been a very low risk
long play at this exact point on Monday. Always another trade
somewhere.
This hasn't happened during this entire bull market run -- $NYAD
failing to make new highs before $SPX. And it has been
lagging since the breakout in the $SPX to all time highs (six
months).
That $VIX lower BB touch is sometimes, but not always, a
reversal target for the $VIX. Strange that the $SPX didn't
melt up once $VIX broke down. QQQ and Small caps are lagging
notably despite the dovish Yellen comments.
Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S.
Senate, Washington, D.C.
NOVEMBER 14, 2013
Chairman Johnson, Senator Crapo, and members of the Committee,
thank you for this opportunity to appear before you today. It has
been a privilege for me to serve the Federal Reserve at different
times and in different roles over the past 36 years, and an honor
to be nominated by the President to lead the Fed as Chair of the
Board of Governors.
I approach this task with a clear understanding that the Congress
has entrusted the Federal Reserve with great responsibilities. Its
decisions affect the well-being of every American and the strength
and prosperity of our nation. That prosperity depends most, of
course, on the productiveness and enterprise of the American
people, but the Federal Reserve plays a role too, promoting
conditions that foster maximum employment, low and stable
inflation, and a safe and sound financial system.
The past six years have been challenging for our nation and
difficult for many Americans. We endured the worst financial crisis
and deepest recession since the Great Depression. The effects were
severe, but they could have been far worse. Working together,
government leaders confronted these challenges and successfully
contained the crisis. Under the wise and skillful leadership of
Chairman Bernanke, the Fed helped stabilize the financial system,
arrest the steep fall in the economy, and restart growth.
Today the economy is significantly stronger and continues to
improve. The private sector has created 7.8 million jobs since the
post-crisis low for employment in 2010. Housing, which was at the
center of the crisis, seems to have turned a corner--construction,
home prices, and sales are up significantly. The auto industry has
made an impressive comeback, with domestic production and sales
back to near their pre-crisis levels.
We have made good progress, but we have farther to go to regain the
ground lost in the crisis and the recession. Unemployment is down
from a peak of 10 percent, but at 7.3 percent in October, it is
still too high, reflecting a labor market and economy performing
far short of their potential. At the same time, inflation has been
running below the Federal Reserve's goal of 2 percent and is
expected to continue to do so for some time.
For these reasons, the Federal Reserve is using its monetary policy
tools to promote a more robust recovery. A strong recovery will
ultimately enable the Fed to reduce its monetary accommodation and
reliance on unconventional policy tools such as asset purchases. I
believe that supporting the recovery today is the surest path to
returning to a more normal approach to monetary policy.
In the past two decades, and especially under Chairman Bernanke,
the Federal Reserve has provided more and clearer information about
its goals. Like the Chairman, I strongly believe that monetary
policy is most effective when the public understands what the Fed
is trying to do and how it plans to do it. At the request of
Chairman Bernanke, I led the effort to adopt a statement of the
Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) longer-run objectives,
including a 2 percent goal for inflation. I believe this statement
has sent a clear and powerful message about the FOMC's commitment
to its goals and has helped anchor the public's expectations that
inflation will remain low and stable in the future. In this and
many other ways, the Federal Reserve has become a more open and
transparent institution. I have strongly supported this commitment
to openness and transparency, and will continue to do so if I am
confirmed and serve as Chair.
The crisis revealed weaknesses in our financial system. I believe
that financial institutions, the Federal Reserve, and our fellow
regulators have made considerable progress in addressing those
weaknesses. Banks are stronger today, regulatory gaps are being
closed, and the financial system is more stable and more resilient.
Safeguarding the United States in a global financial system
requires higher standards both here and abroad, so the Federal
Reserve and other regulators have worked with our counterparts
around the globe to secure improved capital requirements and other
reforms internationally. Today, banks hold more and higher-quality
capital and liquid assets that leave them much better prepared to
withstand financial turmoil. Large banks are now subject to annual
"stress tests" designed to ensure that they will have enough
capital to continue the vital role they play in the economy, even
under highly adverse circumstances.
We have made progress in promoting a strong and stable financial
system, but here, too, important work lies ahead. I am committed to
using the Fed's supervisory and regulatory role to reduce the
threat of another financial crisis. I believe that capital and
liquidity rules and strong supervision are important tools for
addressing the problem of financial institutions that are regarded
as "too big to fail." In writing new rules, however, the Fed should
continue to limit the regulatory burden for community banks and
smaller institutions, taking into account their distinct role and
contributions. Overall, the Federal Reserve has sharpened its focus
on financial stability and is taking that goal into consideration
when carrying out its responsibilities for monetary policy. I
support these developments and pledge, if confirmed, to continue
them.
Our country has come a long way since the dark days of the
financial crisis, but we have farther to go. Likewise, I believe
the Federal Reserve has made significant progress toward its goals
but has more work to do.
Thank you for the opportunity to appear before you today. I would
be happy to respond to your questions.
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
Rbreese, Not many things are
$SPX and daily 200 MA
Posted by kalinm on 16th of Nov 2013 at 02:04 pm
Rbreese, Not many things are up on the year; do you anticipate continued outperformance in QQQ, IWM, SPY and DIA until year end? Or do you think EEM, FXI, EWZ play some catch up?
sure, with weekly bullish MACD
$SPX and daily 200 MA
Posted by kalinm on 16th of Nov 2013 at 01:53 pm
sure, with weekly bullish MACD cross and timing of previous corrections, it really doesn't look like we get a meaningful correction until maybe sometime in early 2014. The other thing that seems strange is the number of headlines these days talking about stock bubbles. I'm not sure what to think of that (it's not very quantifiable).
The longest period (in the
$SPX and daily 200 MA
Posted by kalinm on 16th of Nov 2013 at 01:30 pm
The longest period (in the last 20 years) without a 200 MA touch was Feb 1995 - July 1996.
$SPX and daily 200 MA
Posted by kalinm on 16th of Nov 2013 at 01:26 pm
With MACD 1,200 setting, you get # SP points away from the 200 day MA. Interesting setting (credits to Cobra). 150 points away from 200 MA is very far away (we are 160 points above now). Another interesting point: In the last two bull markets, the LONGEST we have gone without touching the 200 MA is 12 months. We are at 12 months now and it would take a few weeks at a minimum to do a 160 point correction from here. Definitely an outlier event. Also interesting that this levitating market trick happens at the beginning "kick-off" phase of a bull, and at the ending "manic" phase -- panic buying. This might be the most panicked market of all time.
Title: $INDU weekly MACD, bollinger
Posted by kalinm on 16th of Nov 2013 at 12:42 pm
There's a lot going on in this chart of weekly Dow. First, major corrections (in the 10-20% variety), tend to happen at exact cycle periods (about 17 months apart -- red vertical lines). Second, closing outside the upper weekly bb marks either the beginning of a long rally (initial thrust), or very close to the end (panic wave). Third, major divergences in the MACD must be in place for a sizeable correction to take place (this past week marked a bullish MACD cross, so a major correction seems highly unlikely in the next 4-6 weeks). One other note: extreme bullish sentiment of the last six weeks points to a longer rally as well (during initial kick-off phases, sentiment is VERY bullish). Sell-offs happen only after sentiment has been kicked down some notches (contrary to what most people think).
3 rallies to new all time highs
Posted by kalinm on 15th of Nov 2013 at 03:43 pm
Just as TA tells us, when there is no overhead resistance, price gains are sudden and usually surprises are to the upside. Here are three 10% rallies (to 15% over the previous 2007 all time high). Not sure if this rally is related to the prior two (maybe it goes a multiple of them). But amazing how quickly 10% can be had in this market.
$vix rallying here... HOD.
$VIX
Posted by kalinm on 15th of Nov 2013 at 11:50 am
$vix rallying here... HOD.
Weekly SPX bollinger band breaches
Posted by kalinm on 15th of Nov 2013 at 11:22 am
Doesn't happen often. Sometimes signals that we are over-heated and due for a correction; other times signals that we are over-heated and can get more over-heated. Amazing that this last spike might have us close above this channel, exceed a major symmetry target and close above upper b,b. Very impressive week!
FXI?
Posted by kalinm on 15th of Nov 2013 at 11:00 am
I don't get this: Hang Seng and Shanghai both up 1.7%. SPX up 0.2% today. FXI up 5.5% today?
darn... no position in this,
D.R. Horton hears a who!
Posted by kalinm on 15th of Nov 2013 at 10:56 am
darn... no position in this, but should have realized that how formidable the support was on Monday. 10% move this week doesn't negate HS pattern, just would have been a very low risk long play at this exact point on Monday. Always another trade somewhere.
$nikkei 1080 point week
Posted by kalinm on 15th of Nov 2013 at 10:18 am
Amazing -- might be the biggest one week Nikkei rally of the last decade
$VIX
Posted by kalinm on 15th of Nov 2013 at 09:58 am
Quite interesting here. Gap under lower bb, but maybe making some kind of ending diagonal? In any event, coming to major support and quite oversold.
$NYAD cumulative divergence
Posted by kalinm on 14th of Nov 2013 at 06:10 pm
This hasn't happened during this entire bull market run -- $NYAD failing to make new highs before $SPX. And it has been lagging since the breakout in the $SPX to all time highs (six months).
That $VIX lower BB touch
$VIX touching lower bollinger band
Posted by kalinm on 14th of Nov 2013 at 01:01 pm
That $VIX lower BB touch is sometimes, but not always, a reversal target for the $VIX. Strange that the $SPX didn't melt up once $VIX broke down. QQQ and Small caps are lagging notably despite the dovish Yellen comments.
$VIX touching lower bollinger band
Posted by kalinm on 14th of Nov 2013 at 12:38 pm
Quite a breakdown for $VIX in the last 20 minutes.... look for $SPX to spike higher.
So many similarities to the AAPL peak
Posted by kalinm on 14th of Nov 2013 at 09:59 am
"Meet the most powerful woman in the world"
"Rates to stay at zero until at least 2017"
How in the world could she possibly live up to this hype?
GOGO is GOing bonkers
Posted by kalinm on 14th of Nov 2013 at 09:48 am
Sold that too early... WOW!!!
$nikkei breakout
Posted by kalinm on 14th of Nov 2013 at 08:57 am
Huge night for the Nikkei, clearing resistance. Santa Claus is coming to Tokyo it would seem by this chart! $Nikkei up 5% just this week.
Title: Yellen speech released early Vice
Posted by kalinm on 13th of Nov 2013 at 05:24 pm
Vice Chair Janet L. Yellen
Confirmation hearing
Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate, Washington, D.C.
NOVEMBER 14, 2013
Chairman Johnson, Senator Crapo, and members of the Committee, thank you for this opportunity to appear before you today. It has been a privilege for me to serve the Federal Reserve at different times and in different roles over the past 36 years, and an honor to be nominated by the President to lead the Fed as Chair of the Board of Governors.
I approach this task with a clear understanding that the Congress has entrusted the Federal Reserve with great responsibilities. Its decisions affect the well-being of every American and the strength and prosperity of our nation. That prosperity depends most, of course, on the productiveness and enterprise of the American people, but the Federal Reserve plays a role too, promoting conditions that foster maximum employment, low and stable inflation, and a safe and sound financial system.
The past six years have been challenging for our nation and difficult for many Americans. We endured the worst financial crisis and deepest recession since the Great Depression. The effects were severe, but they could have been far worse. Working together, government leaders confronted these challenges and successfully contained the crisis. Under the wise and skillful leadership of Chairman Bernanke, the Fed helped stabilize the financial system, arrest the steep fall in the economy, and restart growth.
Today the economy is significantly stronger and continues to improve. The private sector has created 7.8 million jobs since the post-crisis low for employment in 2010. Housing, which was at the center of the crisis, seems to have turned a corner--construction, home prices, and sales are up significantly. The auto industry has made an impressive comeback, with domestic production and sales back to near their pre-crisis levels.
We have made good progress, but we have farther to go to regain the ground lost in the crisis and the recession. Unemployment is down from a peak of 10 percent, but at 7.3 percent in October, it is still too high, reflecting a labor market and economy performing far short of their potential. At the same time, inflation has been running below the Federal Reserve's goal of 2 percent and is expected to continue to do so for some time.
For these reasons, the Federal Reserve is using its monetary policy tools to promote a more robust recovery. A strong recovery will ultimately enable the Fed to reduce its monetary accommodation and reliance on unconventional policy tools such as asset purchases. I believe that supporting the recovery today is the surest path to returning to a more normal approach to monetary policy.
In the past two decades, and especially under Chairman Bernanke, the Federal Reserve has provided more and clearer information about its goals. Like the Chairman, I strongly believe that monetary policy is most effective when the public understands what the Fed is trying to do and how it plans to do it. At the request of Chairman Bernanke, I led the effort to adopt a statement of the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) longer-run objectives, including a 2 percent goal for inflation. I believe this statement has sent a clear and powerful message about the FOMC's commitment to its goals and has helped anchor the public's expectations that inflation will remain low and stable in the future. In this and many other ways, the Federal Reserve has become a more open and transparent institution. I have strongly supported this commitment to openness and transparency, and will continue to do so if I am confirmed and serve as Chair.
The crisis revealed weaknesses in our financial system. I believe that financial institutions, the Federal Reserve, and our fellow regulators have made considerable progress in addressing those weaknesses. Banks are stronger today, regulatory gaps are being closed, and the financial system is more stable and more resilient. Safeguarding the United States in a global financial system requires higher standards both here and abroad, so the Federal Reserve and other regulators have worked with our counterparts around the globe to secure improved capital requirements and other reforms internationally. Today, banks hold more and higher-quality capital and liquid assets that leave them much better prepared to withstand financial turmoil. Large banks are now subject to annual "stress tests" designed to ensure that they will have enough capital to continue the vital role they play in the economy, even under highly adverse circumstances.
We have made progress in promoting a strong and stable financial system, but here, too, important work lies ahead. I am committed to using the Fed's supervisory and regulatory role to reduce the threat of another financial crisis. I believe that capital and liquidity rules and strong supervision are important tools for addressing the problem of financial institutions that are regarded as "too big to fail." In writing new rules, however, the Fed should continue to limit the regulatory burden for community banks and smaller institutions, taking into account their distinct role and contributions. Overall, the Federal Reserve has sharpened its focus on financial stability and is taking that goal into consideration when carrying out its responsibilities for monetary policy. I support these developments and pledge, if confirmed, to continue them.
Our country has come a long way since the dark days of the financial crisis, but we have farther to go. Likewise, I believe the Federal Reserve has made significant progress toward its goals but has more work to do.
Thank you for the opportunity to appear before you today. I would be happy to respond to your questions.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/yellens-senate-hearing-speech-full-text-2013-11#ixzz2kZDVtPwa
iPhone 5 and Janet Yellen
Posted by kalinm on 13th of Nov 2013 at 05:01 pm
Seems like a lot of symmetry targets are around this area. Yellen's hearing tomorrow might be a lot like the iphone 5 release.