Posted by hurricanemalta on 12th of Aug 2011 at 01:38 am
I somewhat agree and see what you mean.If you look at GLD a
somewhat similar pattern also occurs although todays candle is not
so long so not as nice as your indicated pattterns.I note though
that in Gregory Morris's candlestick book he indicated essentially
an open gap between the two sticks.Anyway I was looking at the
candle set up on GLD as kicking of sorts but definitely DBA is SPOT
ON with a nice gap and nice big candles too in opposite
directions.The others are nice too but no open gap although I don't
really see the need for the open gap as he indicates in his
book.
Posted by hurricanemalta on 11th of Aug 2011 at 05:50 am
Matt
Thanks for update here.
Ok a 6.5% stop loss is set on the single entry fine.The present
trade had a 1st entry at 130.22.I presume the stop would be
immediately set at approx 121.75 so EVEN INTRADAY we would be
stopped out by now.Correct?So a flash crash would definitely see us
out .
Moving on...BUT the multi entry keeps making entries below the
initial entry.In our present trade we entered ALL systems first at
130.22...BUT the last entry of the multi was 120.26 below the
1st entry stop loss of 121.75...I am sure you see my
point here already..we are stopped out but still making
entries.Obviously that is not your plan here so how will the multi
be effected.Bottom line we would still be taking entries
on the multi even when the stop for the 1 st entry has been
hit.I am wondering if you are thinking the rules for the multi will
NOT be changed at all and there will be NO stop for this system as
it's purpose is to enter at cheaper levels.
I am sure others have already thought the same thing as me
here.
a.A bunch definitely threw in the towel and bailed as we went
over 10% drawdown yesterday if not earlier. Can you blame them as
this trade went into the biggest draw down zone in 16 years is
it(?) ,with no turn in sight prior to late today.We couldn't even
take out the 50 period MA on a 15 minute chart and every pos div
got busted.Hearts were racing.
b.as the market tanked in previous days I am sure you are
not the only one who missed trade 4 so don't beat yourself
up.You should be grateful you didn't take it or you might have have
had a heart attack at 2 pm today when the lows were taken out
AGAIN..
c.the lack of yahooing on the general community board when the
market tanked day after day meant everyone was long (via SPY
system??)and wrong and feeling the pain even though most tried to
keep their chin up and said nothing on any board.Come on, some of
the triple etfs were nearly doubling as the market tanked and
I heard not a single yahoo!Usually a stock goes up 5% and there are
accolades flying around everywhere.Yep most were long and wrong for
sure.
d.Some couldn't control their distaste of the bad trade they
were in and how they were disciplined people who had let a
mechanical system beat them up and they had never in their previous
disciplined world let this occur.They were probably selling their 4
th trade just to get their money back a bit.
So IMHO you shouldn't take the 4th trade.Just be bloody grateful
if you get out remotely intact.This trade has been hell for most
members and if they say otherwise they are lying.When one of the
only trades of a live system 3 month in gives the biggest
drawdown ever the feeling of going into the abyss is
perfectly normal IMO.One would think NATURALLY they had entered the
BLACK SWAN zone.
So SS...have a drink and put your feet up and hope,which I
appreciate is not the best strategy,that you get out partially
alive.Many people have already dropped 15% on this trade if not
more as they used sso to go long!
Anyone who says they were relaxed during a 15% plus
drawdown(30% if in sso) intra trade and still feeling
fine, either has too much money or copious amounts of intestinal
fortitude and is a person who would enjoy getting their toenails
pulled out !
Frankly I think the best way to deal with a mechanical system is
to put it on autopilot and NOT even know when it is making trades
because it is as clear as day that people do not cope well when
things get out of control.Silence speaks and there was way toooo
much silence but some couldn't control themselves
understandably.
This is the reality of peoples actions.We were all given COPIOUS
amounts of information by BPT on this system etc so should
have known BUT but you just CAN'T allow for human nature.People
stated they had lost years of gradual profits they had built up.Do
you think they stayed long and didn't sell out??Maybe...maybe
not.
So SS everyone is not so disciplined as you think and to me you
have done really well to get to this point!
Good luck and please wish me luck too because we are not out of
the woods yet!
A system with 90% plus winners is way better than I can ever do
but again we still have the issue of human nature and that is where
things fall apart.
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
JJC also
Kicker signals everywhere
Posted by hurricanemalta on 12th of Aug 2011 at 04:18 am
Kicker
Kicker signals everywhere
Posted by hurricanemalta on 12th of Aug 2011 at 01:38 am
I somewhat agree and see what you mean.If you look at GLD a somewhat similar pattern also occurs although todays candle is not so long so not as nice as your indicated pattterns.I note though that in Gregory Morris's candlestick book he indicated essentially an open gap between the two sticks.Anyway I was looking at the candle set up on GLD as kicking of sorts but definitely DBA is SPOT ON with a nice gap and nice big candles too in opposite directions.The others are nice too but no open gap although I don't really see the need for the open gap as he indicates in his book.
Thanks
Robert50..did Matt say that there would have been a buy signal on 8/8??
Anyone have any justification for exiting now? A fraction or ...
Posted by hurricanemalta on 11th of Aug 2011 at 04:11 pm
yep ..gap fill complete on 60 min spy and at 50 period ma on 60 min and bearish shooting star candle on last hour.Exit time..hmm..thinking
Anyone have any justification for exiting now? A fraction or ...
Posted by hurricanemalta on 11th of Aug 2011 at 04:05 pm
this market is just operating on a wing and a prayer .There is no denying that IMHO.
You know things are F'd up when
Posted by hurricanemalta on 11th of Aug 2011 at 09:32 am
Matt..I imagine the whole possibility of a 4 th entry occurring has now been seriously reduced under this new idea.In fact one would think that maybe a 50,25,25 entry would now be a consideration
New SPY system stop loss rules, etc
Posted by hurricanemalta on 11th of Aug 2011 at 06:50 am
Obvious query others will be thinking too I guess.
New SPY system stop loss rules, etc
Posted by hurricanemalta on 11th of Aug 2011 at 05:50 am
Matt
Thanks for update here.
Ok a 6.5% stop loss is set on the single entry fine.The present trade had a 1st entry at 130.22.I presume the stop would be immediately set at approx 121.75 so EVEN INTRADAY we would be stopped out by now.Correct?So a flash crash would definitely see us out .
Moving on...BUT the multi entry keeps making entries below the initial entry.In our present trade we entered ALL systems first at 130.22...BUT the last entry of the multi was 120.26 below the 1st entry stop loss of 121.75...I am sure you see my point here already..we are stopped out but still making entries.Obviously that is not your plan here so how will the multi be effected.Bottom line we would still be taking entries on the multi even when the stop for the 1 st entry has been hit.I am wondering if you are thinking the rules for the multi will NOT be changed at all and there will be NO stop for this system as it's purpose is to enter at cheaper levels.
I am sure others have already thought the same thing as me here.
Thoughts?
Thanks
forget the pondering this is the truth
Just pondering
Posted by hurricanemalta on 9th of Aug 2011 at 05:24 pm
SS...The reality is this.
a.A bunch definitely threw in the towel and bailed as we went over 10% drawdown yesterday if not earlier. Can you blame them as this trade went into the biggest draw down zone in 16 years is it(?) ,with no turn in sight prior to late today.We couldn't even take out the 50 period MA on a 15 minute chart and every pos div got busted.Hearts were racing.
b.as the market tanked in previous days I am sure you are not the only one who missed trade 4 so don't beat yourself up.You should be grateful you didn't take it or you might have have had a heart attack at 2 pm today when the lows were taken out AGAIN..
c.the lack of yahooing on the general community board when the market tanked day after day meant everyone was long (via SPY system??)and wrong and feeling the pain even though most tried to keep their chin up and said nothing on any board.Come on, some of the triple etfs were nearly doubling as the market tanked and I heard not a single yahoo!Usually a stock goes up 5% and there are accolades flying around everywhere.Yep most were long and wrong for sure.
d.Some couldn't control their distaste of the bad trade they were in and how they were disciplined people who had let a mechanical system beat them up and they had never in their previous disciplined world let this occur.They were probably selling their 4 th trade just to get their money back a bit.
So IMHO you shouldn't take the 4th trade.Just be bloody grateful if you get out remotely intact.This trade has been hell for most members and if they say otherwise they are lying.When one of the only trades of a live system 3 month in gives the biggest drawdown ever the feeling of going into the abyss is perfectly normal IMO.One would think NATURALLY they had entered the BLACK SWAN zone.
So SS...have a drink and put your feet up and hope,which I appreciate is not the best strategy,that you get out partially alive.Many people have already dropped 15% on this trade if not more as they used sso to go long!
Anyone who says they were relaxed during a 15% plus drawdown(30% if in sso) intra trade and still feeling fine, either has too much money or copious amounts of intestinal fortitude and is a person who would enjoy getting their toenails pulled out !
Frankly I think the best way to deal with a mechanical system is to put it on autopilot and NOT even know when it is making trades because it is as clear as day that people do not cope well when things get out of control.Silence speaks and there was way toooo much silence but some couldn't control themselves understandably.
This is the reality of peoples actions.We were all given COPIOUS amounts of information by BPT on this system etc so should have known BUT but you just CAN'T allow for human nature.People stated they had lost years of gradual profits they had built up.Do you think they stayed long and didn't sell out??Maybe...maybe not.
So SS everyone is not so disciplined as you think and to me you have done really well to get to this point!
Good luck and please wish me luck too because we are not out of the woods yet!
A system with 90% plus winners is way better than I can ever do but again we still have the issue of human nature and that is where things fall apart.
TLT
Posted by hurricanemalta on 9th of Aug 2011 at 03:56 pm
Note the overthrow out of the channel and then move back in with a wicked shooting star candle on big volume..note neg divergence on MACD too.
thats another 30 points down!..if it breaks...NOT lol!
SPX 1 Minute
Posted by hurricanemalta on 9th of Aug 2011 at 09:52 am
I didn't even get an email about a video!
Can anyone get the video or Newsletter for the spy system?
Posted by hurricanemalta on 9th of Aug 2011 at 03:23 am
BUT what can FOMC say to create a rally?More qe is no guarantee of a good repsonse.
Rubber band is stretched big time....
Posted by hurricanemalta on 8th of Aug 2011 at 07:12 pm
I sense the SPY system is experiencing a black swan after a few months of going live.
SPY
Posted by hurricanemalta on 8th of Aug 2011 at 04:10 pm
We need Ben B to ride in and save the day and buy every share on offer!It is that simple .
Do we finish up or down from here (1131.40)?
Posted by hurricanemalta on 8th of Aug 2011 at 03:06 pm
closed above wedge at 3 pm and no reversal candle on this chart.
60 min $VIX wedge..we need a reverse here IMO before we get a new wider up channel formed
Posted by hurricanemalta on 8th of Aug 2011 at 03:01 pm
60 min $VIX wedge..we need a reverse here IMO before we get a new wider up channel formed
Posted by hurricanemalta on 8th of Aug 2011 at 02:42 pm
But will the puke end.It seems not.
Here it comes boys and girls
Posted by hurricanemalta on 8th of Aug 2011 at 02:19 pm
interestingly it was worse late 2008 on your chart so not even indicative of a low really.
S&P 500 3 std deviations from 200 dma
Posted by hurricanemalta on 8th of Aug 2011 at 02:17 pm
pos divergence?
potential for positive divergence on Dax future chart on the ...
Posted by hurricanemalta on 8th of Aug 2011 at 01:43 pm
yep I agree..shows the danger of feeling comfy in mechanical systems too.
now I need to be held :-)
Posted by hurricanemalta on 8th of Aug 2011 at 12:13 pm