why do they have to be unexpected acts of God? why can't they be unexpected acts of men with enough power and influence to make significat impact upon lives and finances of other men, changing what they (the lesser ones) perceived as the progression path for their futures.

How is that perception of lesser men regarding their financial future different from their perception of a house they built to remain safe, only for a tidal wave to destroy it?

I think attributing drastic, calamitous effect of the unexpect to only nature and God is a narrow way of evaluating events that effect our world.

Why would not an attack on Georgia by Russia be a black swan, it changed lives of many, it finished lives of many, it may have already changesd some balance of power, and through that, our lives too.

If you expected that, well good for you! For me it was as black a swan as black can be

as long as it makes me money on balance, I am happy with it

i like it to make a divergent low, for 5 wave down to be complete, that is, if 5th wave does not extend itself, according to the count I am keeping, 3rd wave's already extended, so 5th wave should not extend, I agree with 300 , maybe overshoot 280 or so for 5 = 1.618 * 1, and the bombardment should cease.

My counts have been wrong before, so keep that in mind

of course there is enough gold and silver, paper gold and silver, that is. Just take a look at prospectus for GLD or SLV, they owe nobody anything, they are not even subject to any third party audits. Mybe they are fully backed by billion maybe not. Maybe I didn't understand the prospectus right.

They, however, are great instruments of market price control. And  then we have the future market -- a world full of promises of future, and short of commitments of today. It sounds like business as usual alright, am I missing the point?

I know bullion banks are active in future markets, shorting metal not recorded anywhere, but that still is a promise of delivery.

If what is circulating is true, and the actual demand outstripping supply is really correct, it is a front runner ahead of strong south asian demand season for gold. Again, if (BIG WORD) that is the case, matt's COT data should point to a seasonal low for commercial shorts, and we shall see a bounce.

On Friday, I called a dealer and asked for 5 one-ounce swiss gold bars, he had no problem accomodating me, we negotiated the price, and that was that. That was Friday, which seems like an eternity ago.

BTW, I am also a CEF investor (not trader) because they are subject to third party audit, and I could understand their propectus

what has kept me wary, and away from expanding my meagre short position is the fact that I hear everywhere people talking how they plan to short SPX 1320,  and many places are talking turn dates 2nd half of august - crowded

I just think that it is possible that that shorting becomes a bear trap, and we see a final push higher than SPX 1320, and an upside resolution to the traingle that XLF is making on a daily chart, setting a negative divergence and a new high, a squeeze of late shorts, and we go our merry way down.

Yes, I agree with you that it looks so much like the 70s, only the scale is bigger, a perfect Deja Vu, or maybe too perfect a Deja Vu?

I would like to see technical evidence of a resumption of the uptrend in commodities, Oil, I believe is the key to that door

with unlimited capital, it might be easy to ride out storms, for mere mortals like me, that is not an option, I'll go underground and wait for the  gale to stop howling. It's a balancing act, and so different from one individual case to anothe

Coxe is a fundamentalist at macro level. I am an avid follower of his opinions and publications. Hell, the amount of money he has made me by turning me on to commodities makes me speechless.

Not only that 5% of my retirement account is invested in the fund he manages, and if this commodity correction/crash/whatever drags, I will invest another batch with fresh savings. I cannot put in words admiration I have for the man, for his honesty, knowledge, analytical skill, and clarity of thoughts and writing

But, he is a macro level fundamentalist.

I listened to the conference (I always do), notice he said he could not have expected the melting of gold. Notice he said he could not have expected such drastic measures taken by the FED and Treasury, because they are unprecented. Notice he mentions the hedge fund deleveraging of short finance long gold trade.

In his publication, Basic Points, he laments the possiblity of a Fannie Freddie paper deal between the US and Russia, with guarantees in place -- now, if true, who could have expected that?

that is the thing with macro-level fundamentals, they evolve over macro level time frames, and along the way things, unexpected things may happen that might change them.

Coxe, in one of his conferences, talked about a book called Black Swan by Nasim Nicholas Taleb, black swans happen, no one can see them, but following the charts may help us sidestep them.

I made a typo in the title, I meant to write Renko, but lack of caffeine prevailed

I noticed something very bizarre, if I choose "Fill The Chart" as my chart setting, i see a very different picture from when I set a specific Period to cover what "Fill The Chart"covers

here are two charts to show what I mean, what am I missing here?

matt, steve,

will you take a look at EMC, it seems like it is setting up again

rally soon is very possible based on my count,

if the count is right, we are finishing up the 5th wave of a whopper of an a wave correction, so as long as the 5th wave does not extend itself, we are likely to finish this soon, which will make me sad -- it was a hell of a short

not in my experience, as long as I can count impulse and correction as per guidlines, it's all the same to me. BUT, I ain't no guru, so take my count with a good dose of suspicion

there you are,

feedbacks welcome

I did an elliott wave of g.to (GG in canada) and got to a cycle 1 top, one of my shorts, a bounce may be close, but I doubt we have seen the end, if you want a chart, let me know

BTW, same count foe AEM, which was even weaker since had what looked like 5th wave failure.

sorry matt, I did not mean to intrude, I am also interested in your take

Oh, of course, but GS calls are pump and dump.

when was the last time, GS had back to back quarters of trading losses, they are masters of trading, and they control the short term market, and they have access to crap outlets -- ahem, media I mean

Yep! remeber they called 200 oil in May?

Cool, thanks,

I am short, SKF for almost ever, WYNN since the blow off a few days ago, SDS, and GDX, which, may get covered soon

ON PBR?

OK, sorry, I was not judging, but if you got offended, apologies -- hope you accept them

someone urged me to buy the other days,

this is the message he wrote

"

If your thinking about buying it you better do it soon, it looks like it wants higher prices and the technicals are  turning up. Just put a stop somewhere that you feel is as much pain as you can take.

"

I was asked you weather it was you or not, did not mean any offense