$nymo and $namo have fallen below their bottom BBs.
If the market continues lower Monday and Tuesday next week
will make for 2 and 3 days respectively for these indicators below
their bottom BBs. Increasing the probability of a good market
bounce trade. Especially if the market pull back triggers some spy
system entries
Thanks for the values. I was trying a few different values. But
it will take a while to vusually look back a few yeras to get a
good fit. The VIX "5" is good.
The following stats were posted by TomBowley @
stockcharts.commid last week. So
far played out with strength up the Friday 17th, and nes now down
on the 20th :
"
The October 27th (close) through January 18th (close) period as
being the most bullish period of the year. We've gone up nearly every year since 1950 (57 of 69
years) during this period. Barring a collapse of mega proportions,
this period will end at Friday's close in positive territory once
again. Looking into next week, however, suggests a different
outcome.
January 20th(Monday) is the 3rd worst calendar day of the year, trailing
only October 19th (think Black Monday 1987) and October 22nd.
It has an annualized return of -83%.
Mondays that fall after options expiration are also typically
very poor stock market days.
$vix correlation to $spx plotted in purple over the
corr($spx:$NYlow) indicator window. Shows a similar fore
warning of market pull backs to new lows in the indices.
The $vix and the index new lows are completely independent
data series providing similar forewarning signals.
I have looked back at the index new low corr with the $SPX/spy
over 22 years and it generally provides fore warnings of 1%
in strong bull runs to up to 15-20% corrections.
As with all indicators is is only a tool to combine with other
signals. Not a system in itself.
Correlation between $SPX and new lows on NYA is often giving
advanced warnings of pull back as well as larger corrections in the
market.
The new lows start increasing as the market goes higher. The
correlation functions shows these advanced warnings quite clearly.
Like Jan 2018, Set 2018. May and July 2019 and others.
The correlation is rising now and may be warning of a pull back.
Even if small. Tying in the the spy exhaustion trade.
Re the exhaustion trade, the following stats ares from Tom
Bowley from stockcharts.com:
The October 27th (close) through January 18th (close) period as
being the most bullish period of the year. We've gone up nearly
every year since 1950 (57 of 69 years) during this period. Barring
a collapse of mega proportions, this period will end at Friday's
close in positive territory once again. Looking into next week,
however, suggests a different outcome.
January 20th (Monday) is the 3rd worst calendar day of the
year,trailing only October 19th (think Black Monday 1987) and October
22nd.
It has an annualized return of -83%.Mondays that fall after options expiration are also typically
very poor stock market days.
So hopefully the spy triggers Thursday or Friday, maybe at
the upper pivot just above 3304-3306!!
spy and es h&S about to break neck line. If can break neck
line big time on volume, then finally a correction so spy system
can catch the 1st bid for 2020
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
$nymo and $namo have fallen
Posted by elliotw on 25th of Jan 2020 at 04:26 am
$nymo and $namo have fallen below their bottom BBs.
If the market continues lower Monday and Tuesday next week will make for 2 and 3 days respectively for these indicators below their bottom BBs. Increasing the probability of a good market bounce trade. Especially if the market pull back triggers some spy system entries
Cool article
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/uk-researcher-predicts-over-250000-people-china-will-have-coronavirus-ten-days
Posted by elliotw on 24th of Jan 2020 at 11:08 pm
Cool article
Thanks for the values. I
Correlation SPX to new lows in spx, indicator window below ...
Posted by elliotw on 20th of Jan 2020 at 10:54 pm
Thanks for the values. I was trying a few different values. But it will take a while to vusually look back a few yeras to get a good fit. The VIX "5" is good.
January Stats The following stats were
Posted by elliotw on 20th of Jan 2020 at 10:52 pm
January Stats
The following stats were posted by TomBowley @ stockcharts.commid last week. So far played out with strength up the Friday 17th, and nes now down on the 20th :
" The October 27th (close) through January 18th (close) period as being the most bullish period of the year . We've gone up nearly every year since 1950 (57 of 69 years) during this period. Barring a collapse of mega proportions, this period will end at Friday's close in positive territory once again. Looking into next week, however, suggests a different outcome. January 20th (Monday) is the 3rd worst calendar day of the year, trailing only October 19th (think Black Monday 1987) and October 22nd. It has an annualized return of -83% . Mondays that fall after options expiration are also typically very poor stock market days.
$vix correlation to $spx plotted
Correlation SPX to new lows in spx, indicator window below ...
Posted by elliotw on 20th of Jan 2020 at 05:59 am
$vix correlation to $spx plotted in purple over the corr($spx:$NYlow) indicator window. Shows a similar fore warning of market pull backs to new lows in the indices.
The $vix and the index new lows are completely independent data series providing similar forewarning signals.
I have looked back at the index new low corr with the $SPX/spy over 22 years and it generally provides fore warnings of 1% in strong bull runs to up to 15-20% corrections.
As with all indicators is is only a tool to combine with other signals. Not a system in itself.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p87616059562&listNum=88&a=714903954
Correlation SPX to new lows
Posted by elliotw on 19th of Jan 2020 at 03:07 am
Correlation SPX to new lows in spx, indicator window below price has also given advanced warnings of pull backs.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p47470502078&listNum=88&a=714677024
Correlation between $SPX and new
Posted by elliotw on 19th of Jan 2020 at 03:00 am
Correlation between $SPX and new lows on NYA is often giving advanced warnings of pull back as well as larger corrections in the market.
The new lows start increasing as the market goes higher. The correlation functions shows these advanced warnings quite clearly. Like Jan 2018, Set 2018. May and July 2019 and others.
The correlation is rising now and may be warning of a pull back. Even if small. Tying in the the spy exhaustion trade.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p71977496322&a=714677024&listNum=88
Re the exhaustion trade, the
SPY Exhaustion Short Condition back on
Posted by elliotw on 16th of Jan 2020 at 12:24 am
Re the exhaustion trade, the following stats ares from Tom Bowley from stockcharts.com:
The October 27th (close) through January 18th (close) period as being the most bullish period of the year. We've gone up nearly every year since 1950 (57 of 69 years) during this period. Barring a collapse of mega proportions, this period will end at Friday's close in positive territory once again. Looking into next week, however, suggests a different outcome. January 20th (Monday) is the 3rd worst calendar day of the year, trailing only October 19th (think Black Monday 1987) and October 22nd. It has an annualized return of -83%. Mondays that fall after options expiration are also typically very poor stock market days.
So hopefully the spy triggers Thursday or Friday, maybe at the upper pivot just above 3304-3306!!
$rvx now attached
Posted by elliotw on 14th of Jan 2020 at 03:35 am
$rvx now attached
$RVX below bottom BB, short
Posted by elliotw on 14th of Jan 2020 at 03:32 am
$RVX below bottom BB, short term possible sell for iwm
Couple of more divergence charts
Posted by elliotw on 12th of Jan 2020 at 01:21 am
Couple of more divergence charts from previous BPT newsletters
qqq rsi(14) 3 pattern push
Posted by elliotw on 9th of Jan 2020 at 05:13 pm
qqq rsi(14) 3 pattern push
good spotting on IWM, thxs
$SPX -1) - 'Broadening' Plot Update...Nearing the uppr-line with perhaps ...
Posted by elliotw on 9th of Jan 2020 at 09:43 am
good spotting on IWM, thxs for great charts
nice line /es chart. GDX
$SPX -1) - 'Broadening' Plot Update...Nearing the uppr-line with perhaps ...
Posted by elliotw on 9th of Jan 2020 at 08:32 am
nice line /es chart. GDX 60 min had same pattern this week, then broke down. /nq here too.
/es and /nq 60 min
$SPX -1) - 'Broadening' Plot Update...Nearing the uppr-line with perhaps ...
Posted by elliotw on 9th of Jan 2020 at 07:16 am
/es and /nq 60 min charts have nearly touched the upper line of their broadening top pattern s
congrats!!!! hopefully TS gets my
I took some ES short near that bearish rally cycle ...
Posted by elliotw on 7th of Jan 2020 at 06:46 pm
congrats!!!! hopefully TS gets my futures actt activated very soon
spy and es h&S about
Posted by elliotw on 7th of Jan 2020 at 06:34 pm
spy and es h&S about to break neck line. If can break neck line big time on volume, then finally a correction so spy system can catch the 1st bid for 2020
SPX 60 min potential H&S
Posted by elliotw on 7th of Jan 2020 at 04:17 pm
SPX 60 min potential H&S if plays out would have a target of 3140 to 3160
An interesting stat. Do you
Tony Dwyer
Posted by elliotw on 30th of Dec 2019 at 03:46 am
An interesting stat. Do you know which year was the first time? Thanks
Vix correlation to SPX at
Posted by elliotw on 28th of Dec 2019 at 03:30 pm
Vix correlation to SPX at high levels (sometimes seen prior to previous market pull backs)
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p25502848026&a=699225760&listNum=48
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=4&mn=3&dy=0&id=p98223305807&a=669419653&listNum=48