early notification the SPY Exhaustion short condition is
triggering again, remember yesterday it was but then was lost
because of the pullback in the afternoon. This would be for the
Exhaustion Short 2 sub system. We'll see how the rest of the day
unfolds. Remember yesterday I said I would not be surprised
to see the market come back on
anyway you guys get to see real time, today that SPY short has
come and gone twice now. It was there most of morning into mid day,
then we get that nice pullback in the market and it was gone (would
have actually provided a nice day trade), then it came back on when
the market pushed again, and if you took that it was another good
signal as the market is now back down again.
as far as how much that happens in history, I have no idea, like
I said since these are daily systems the past you only see the
trade conditions that remained valued by the close, does now show
you the 100's of times where you probably had intra day signals
that went away because price moved out of range by the close.
Re the exhaustion trade, the following stats ares from Tom
Bowley from stockcharts.com:
The October 27th (close) through January 18th (close) period as
being the most bullish period of the year. We've gone up nearly
every year since 1950 (57 of 69 years) during this period. Barring
a collapse of mega proportions, this period will end at Friday's
close in positive territory once again. Looking into next week,
however, suggests a different outcome.
January 20th (Monday) is the 3rd worst calendar day of the
year,trailing only October 19th (think Black Monday 1987) and October
22nd.
It has an annualized return of -83%.Mondays that fall after options expiration are also typically
very poor stock market days.
So hopefully the spy triggers Thursday or Friday, maybe at
the upper pivot just above 3304-3306!!
well I told you guys on the weekend the market was likely going
higher and that has come to pass, and that 3300 now has been
tagged. We'll see if by end of week that AAII has went back up,
which needs to.
yeah amcap - IWM my mistake was not buying that because was
pretty obviously it was gonna play catch up to the other indexes.
anyway liquidity driven market
The pattern shown here is NOT a good example of a diamond
pattern IMO (the top one) That is a CHANNEL BREAK or
TRENDLINE break. Irregardless, the theme was to play the
break so well done.
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SPY Exhaustion Short Condition back on
Posted by matt on 15th of Jan 2020 at 09:46 am
early notification the SPY Exhaustion short condition is triggering again, remember yesterday it was but then was lost because of the pullback in the afternoon. This would be for the Exhaustion Short 2 sub system. We'll see how the rest of the day unfolds. Remember yesterday I said I would not be surprised to see the market come back on
on the SPY short, 328.22
Posted by matt on 15th of Jan 2020 at 02:56 pm
on the SPY short, 328.22 seems to be the new breakpoint spot
SPY below 382.22 no short, above Yes short basically
anyway you guys get to
Posted by matt on 15th of Jan 2020 at 03:01 pm
anyway you guys get to see real time, today that SPY short has come and gone twice now. It was there most of morning into mid day, then we get that nice pullback in the market and it was gone (would have actually provided a nice day trade), then it came back on when the market pushed again, and if you took that it was another good signal as the market is now back down again.
as far as how much that happens in history, I have no idea, like I said since these are daily systems the past you only see the trade conditions that remained valued by the close, does now show you the 100's of times where you probably had intra day signals that went away because price moved out of range by the close.
OMG that short almost triggered
Posted by matt on 15th of Jan 2020 at 03:58 pm
OMG that short almost triggered by pennies, I was scrambling to get an alert sent out here. on TS the official close is 2 min after.
anyway maybe it goes tomorrow, that's 2 days now it's tried to go
Re the exhaustion trade, the
Posted by elliotw on 16th of Jan 2020 at 12:24 am
Re the exhaustion trade, the following stats ares from Tom Bowley from stockcharts.com:
The October 27th (close) through January 18th (close) period as being the most bullish period of the year. We've gone up nearly every year since 1950 (57 of 69 years) during this period. Barring a collapse of mega proportions, this period will end at Friday's close in positive territory once again. Looking into next week, however, suggests a different outcome. January 20th (Monday) is the 3rd worst calendar day of the year, trailing only October 19th (think Black Monday 1987) and October 22nd. It has an annualized return of -83%. Mondays that fall after options expiration are also typically very poor stock market days.
So hopefully the spy triggers Thursday or Friday, maybe at the upper pivot just above 3304-3306!!
Reminder - the US markets
Posted by steve on 16th of Jan 2020 at 08:19 am
Reminder - the US markets are closed on Monday (MLK Holiday)
so we won't get an
Posted by mla127 on 16th of Jan 2020 at 09:49 am
so we won't get an all time high on Monday ... we are taking a breather ... lol
well I told you guys
Posted by matt on 16th of Jan 2020 at 09:53 am
well I told you guys on the weekend the market was likely going higher and that has come to pass, and that 3300 now has been tagged. We'll see if by end of week that AAII has went back up, which needs to.
yeah amcap - IWM my mistake was not buying that because was pretty obviously it was gonna play catch up to the other indexes. anyway liquidity driven market
Thank you Matt, can't imagine
Posted by retirefire on 15th of Jan 2020 at 04:04 pm
Thank you Matt, can't imagine how busy you are and also field questions and do your own trading.
the exhaustion short signal went
Posted by matt on 15th of Jan 2020 at 12:49 pm
the exhaustion short signal went away on that last push, looks like SPY needs to be over about 328.2
Matt does that diamond pattern
Posted by retirefire on 15th of Jan 2020 at 01:12 pm
Matt does that diamond pattern frequently break down?
old question on DIAMOND
Posted by retirefire on 2nd of Apr 2020 at 04:04 pm
old question on DIAMOND
? that was supposed to
Posted by matt on 15th of Jan 2020 at 02:38 pm
? that was supposed to break down not up. see image, played out like textbook.
suggest you guys get a book on chart patterns and basic TA stuff, that wasn't supposed to break to the upside
The pattern shown here is
Posted by steve on 2nd of Apr 2020 at 04:06 pm
The pattern shown here is NOT a good example of a diamond pattern IMO (the top one) That is a CHANNEL BREAK or TRENDLINE break. Irregardless, the theme was to play the break so well done.