Posted by dodgerdog on 1st of Jul 2009 at 04:24 pm
See top of blog which from earlier - comments on the chart. The
SPX is trading between two pivots 912 and 935. The index had
slight negative divergence at the highs and pulled back in a choppy
fashion - with many traders out this week on holiday we may have to
wait until next week for the market to show it's hand.
Posted by dodgerdog on 1st of Jul 2009 at 01:31 pm
I agree - UIS has now broken into a thin zone with next big
resistance around $3. That by no means guarantees it will go
there so just trade it according to your objectives. One way
to play it is to book profits on part and keep some as a runner and
trail your stops up.
Posted by dodgerdog on 1st of Jul 2009 at 01:25 pm
AM - keep an eye on this stock in the days ahead for a potential
reversal (pullback) as it's getting quite extended near term.
I would view this as a quick trade at this point. The next
resistance area is around 12.50 - need to get a trigger to play off
the short term charts (needless to say keep a stop in place since
it's in a solid uptrend).
Posted by dodgerdog on 1st of Jul 2009 at 12:58 pm
Yes, with a stop somewhere above in accordance to your trading
objectives and risk tolerance. You may want to wait for a
short term trigger on a (1 or 5 minute chart) before entering.
Posted by dodgerdog on 1st of Jul 2009 at 12:56 pm
Bill there is symmetry support on the NQ at 1488-90 with the 34
EMA below on the 15 minute chart (just add 1.5 points for the
NDX). This needs to be broken decisively for an indication of
a market reversal so keep an eye on those levels.
Posted by dodgerdog on 1st of Jul 2009 at 12:43 pm
rkelman - an objective short (with a stop just above) would be
near the top of the channel (see my post below). You should
look for a trigger on a shorter term chart to enter.
Massive TICK and Breadth Divergence on SPY Intraday
I wanted to share with you something I’m paying particular
attention to - the TICK, Breadth, 3-Push Momentum Divergence, and
Volume Divergence we’re seeing at these intraday levels in the SPY
(and other US Market ETFs). Let’s take a quick look to see
what this might mean so that we can be prepared if prices start
falling from these levels.
Without going into too much detail, take a look at a full,
five-wave Elliott fractal move completing on a “Three Push”
Negative Momentum Divergence - that’s often all it takes to trigger
a ’short sell’ trade and play for a possible trend reversal with a
stop placed a decent distance above the highs at $93.00 in the
SPY.
We’re also seeing a slight volume divergence as price as risen
in what appears to be a ‘counter-trend’ move up.
It’s possible that we’re forming the right shoulder on a daily
chart Head and Shoulders reversal pattern… but let’s not get too
far ahead of ourselves here intraday.
Looking beyond Volume and Momentum, let’s see what the Market
Internals of Breadth and the TICK are telling us:
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See top of blog which
Neg Divergance
Posted by dodgerdog on 1st of Jul 2009 at 04:24 pm
See top of blog which from earlier - comments on the chart. The SPX is trading between two pivots 912 and 935. The index had slight negative divergence at the highs and pulled back in a choppy fashion - with many traders out this week on holiday we may have to wait until next week for the market to show it's hand.
Lastly, we have the Jobs data tomorrow.
LIFE
Posted by dodgerdog on 1st of Jul 2009 at 04:16 pm
LIFE - mentioned this one to Matt earlier today as a possible trade short
I agree - UIS has
UIS on FIRE
Posted by dodgerdog on 1st of Jul 2009 at 01:31 pm
I agree - UIS has now broken into a thin zone with next big resistance around $3. That by no means guarantees it will go there so just trade it according to your objectives. One way to play it is to book profits on part and keep some as a runner and trail your stops up.
One to watch for a reversal
Posted by dodgerdog on 1st of Jul 2009 at 01:25 pm
AM - keep an eye on this stock in the days ahead for a potential reversal (pullback) as it's getting quite extended near term. I would view this as a quick trade at this point. The next resistance area is around 12.50 - need to get a trigger to play off the short term charts (needless to say keep a stop in place since it's in a solid uptrend).
Nice trade.
UIS on FIRE
Posted by dodgerdog on 1st of Jul 2009 at 01:19 pm
Nice trade.
Yes, with a stop somewhere
Posted by dodgerdog on 1st of Jul 2009 at 12:58 pm
Yes, with a stop somewhere above in accordance to your trading objectives and risk tolerance. You may want to wait for a short term trigger on a (1 or 5 minute chart) before entering.
Bill there is symmetry support
Just bought some QID here with a tight stop...10 cent ...
Posted by dodgerdog on 1st of Jul 2009 at 12:56 pm
Bill there is symmetry support on the NQ at 1488-90 with the 34 EMA below on the 15 minute chart (just add 1.5 points for the NDX). This needs to be broken decisively for an indication of a market reversal so keep an eye on those levels.
That's exactly what I'm seeing
Posted by dodgerdog on 1st of Jul 2009 at 12:48 pm
That's exactly what I'm seeing as well at this time. Remember, many traders are out on Holiday so it may lead to quicker moves in a thin market.
http://www.elliottwave.com/club/members/tutorial/default.htm
Elliot Wave Counts
Posted by dodgerdog on 1st of Jul 2009 at 12:46 pm
http://www.elliottwave.com/club/members/tutorial/default.htm
rkelman - an objective short
Posted by dodgerdog on 1st of Jul 2009 at 12:43 pm
rkelman - an objective short (with a stop just above) would be near the top of the channel (see my post below). You should look for a trigger on a shorter term chart to enter.
TYX Daily
Posted by dodgerdog on 30th of Jun 2009 at 12:45 pm
Thanks CWA - we try
SPX 15
Posted by dodgerdog on 30th of Jun 2009 at 11:33 am
Thanks CWA - we try our best
That is a SUPER accomplishment
US Senior Open
Posted by dodgerdog on 30th of Jun 2009 at 10:12 am
That is a SUPER accomplishment - congratulations and good luck.
News
Posted by dodgerdog on 30th of Jun 2009 at 09:55 am
We have two Economic Reports at 10:00 EST - Chicago PMI and Consumer Confidence
SPX 15
Posted by dodgerdog on 30th of Jun 2009 at 09:52 am
TBT 15 follow From Yesterday's Post
Posted by dodgerdog on 30th of Jun 2009 at 09:39 am
Quick Technical Summary
Posted by dodgerdog on 30th of Jun 2009 at 08:24 am
Massive TICK and Breadth Divergence on SPY Intraday
I wanted to share with you something I’m paying particular attention to - the TICK, Breadth, 3-Push Momentum Divergence, and Volume Divergence we’re seeing at these intraday levels in the SPY (and other US Market ETFs). Let’s take a quick look to see what this might mean so that we can be prepared if prices start falling from these levels.
Without going into too much detail, take a look at a full, five-wave Elliott fractal move completing on a “Three Push” Negative Momentum Divergence - that’s often all it takes to trigger a ’short sell’ trade and play for a possible trend reversal with a stop placed a decent distance above the highs at $93.00 in the SPY.
We’re also seeing a slight volume divergence as price as risen in what appears to be a ‘counter-trend’ move up.
It’s possible that we’re forming the right shoulder on a daily chart Head and Shoulders reversal pattern… but let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves here intraday.
Looking beyond Volume and Momentum, let’s see what the Market Internals of Breadth and the TICK are telling us:
If you look closely at the TICK (middle panel), you’ll see that we peaked on June 25th and have been making lower highs ever since. We’ve also just made a New TICK Low at -1,000 which is not the direction bulls want the TICK to be making.
What’s even more obvious is a Negative Breadth Divergence that began on June 24th and on each subsequent higher high in price, breadth (Net Advancers minus Net Decliners) has made a lower high, locking in a non-confirmation.
Let’s put it all together:
Complete 5-wave Elliott Fractal Impulse Up
Negative Volume Divergence
Negative TICK Divergence
Negative Breadth Divergence
“Three Push” Triple Negative Momentum Divergence
I would not want to be a bull at these levels and - although there is certainly no guarantee price has to fall from these levels - odds strongly favor downside action yet to come as opposed to higher price action… bulls are going to have to overcome a lot to keep this market rising with these many divergences forming.
TBT 15
Posted by dodgerdog on 29th of Jun 2009 at 01:16 pm
Possible falling Wedge forming on Intraday charts
yw - thanks for sharing
KONG
Posted by dodgerdog on 29th of Jun 2009 at 01:09 pm
yw - thanks for sharing you charts.
RUT 15
Posted by dodgerdog on 29th of Jun 2009 at 12:46 pm