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"The frenzied dealmaking and diverging strike prices suggested dueling forces as investors grew nervous about the potential impact of the vote on the market - prices could fall or rise by as much as 5 percent.

It was most evident in bullish bets. COMEX July gold calls that give the holder the option to buy at $1,300 per ounce and $1,325 were some of the most actively traded on the day.

Activity in July puts with strike prices of $1,200 and $1,220 was also almost as busy. They all expire on Monday.

Combined turnover in the four contracts equated to close to 638,000 ounces of bullion worth more than $800 million."

Not so fast

Place your bets!

Posted by caddpro123 on 22nd of Jun 2016 at 02:10 pm

Don't count on the "bookies" to be an accurate guide

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/eu-referendum-2016-poll-results-7699714

Excerpt from this article published this evening in England.It is worth reading.

Leave gets the edge - TNS & Opinium published 22 June

Two official surveys were published in quick succession on Wednesday night, hours before voters go to the polls. And they show both camps neck and neck - but with Leave in the lead. A TNS online poll of 2,320 people on June 16-22 showed a two-point lead for Brexit- with Leave on 43% and Remain on 41%.

Some 11% of voters still said they don't know while another 5% said they don't intend to vote. An Opinium poll of 3,011 people from June 20-22, again online, put Leave on 45% and Remain on 44%. But it found far more people expect the Remain camp to triumph tomorrow (46%) than the Brexitcamp (27%). Another 27% don't know how it will do.

Just as an aside I am half English. My mother is a British subject. I have literally hundreds of relatives in England. And from what I gather they are generally leaning toward leaving. This despite the media trying so hard to paint a different picture. However, as group they are hardly representative of the average Brit with nearly all holding undergraduate degrees. With many  holding Masters degrees and quite a few with PHD's. For what it is worth......

A matter of perspective here

Rate hike

Posted by caddpro123 on 7th of Jun 2016 at 12:32 am

My apologies as I thought that my comments suggested precisely that she was aiding the markets. While her actions are good for the "market" in many ways and an obvious boon to traders, in my view they are dangerous for the country as a whole.  The FED must take credit for among other things, destroying  the US dollar and many would argue our standard of living along with it. Not to mention the endless boom bust cycles which are so devastating to most Americans.  Therefore, looking at her actions from the perspective of the country as a whole, Yellen and the FED as a whole are trouble makers of the worst order.

Rate hike

Posted by caddpro123 on 6th of Jun 2016 at 12:56 pm

FED comments today on rate hike courtesy of CNBC (which for the record I usually avoid)

It's a "fair assessment" that the chances of a June rate hike are now much lower, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard told The Wall Street Journal on Monday.

On the other hand, Janet Yellen ever the trouble maker said

"Although this recent labor market report was, on balance, concerning, let me emphasize that one should never attach too much significance to any single monthly report,"

"inevitable uncertainty surrounding the outlook for the economy."

"The uncertainties are sizable, and progress toward our goals and, by implication, the appropriate stance of monetary policy will depend on how these uncertainties evolve,"

My take: there is no money to be made in transparent markets without volatility, so by all means, lets cloud the issues and make some more........

Yellens speech in Philadelphia at 12:30 p.m. EDT.

Posted by caddpro123 on 6th of Jun 2016 at 08:43 am

Her seemingly unrelated and/or off the cuff remarks have roiled the market on more than one occasion. Which in turn brings with it the potential for late day volatility.  One more reason to take the day off? I usually don't carry positions over long Holiday weekends anyway. Very light volume at the open in the metals today. Steve Matt what are your thoughts on this? I realize this has been discussed before.

From 1913 through the end of 2015, the Federal Reserve has, with all the skill, expertise, knowledge, wisdom and power at their command taken the value of what was arguably the strongest currency in the world, the dollar, backed by gold, to the point where it is worth comparatively speaking about 2-1/2 cents backed by Trillions in debt. Perhaps even more impressive it the fact that the Forbes 400  now own more wealth than the  poorest 62% of Americans. Which at least from my perspective as an investor, suggests that the rest of us should take heed, but have little faith in the Federal Reserve, beyond it's ability to separate us from our hard earned money.

This is supposed to be recreation in my retirement. On days like this I would rather go fight with my wife Laughing

COTS Commecia Gold Net Short up again

Posted by caddpro123 on 13th of May 2016 at 04:30 pm

Commercial Gold Net Short = 314289 is this by any chance a new record? Regardless does it suggest a sharp correction going into the summer doldrums? Interesting action this week in the metals all things considered. Not your everyday as it were.

Major players

JP Morgan predicts $1400 Gold in 2016

Posted by caddpro123 on 11th of May 2016 at 03:22 pm

True enough Matt. I just offered it as a point of interest given how bearish JP Morgan has been of late regarding the metals. They have rarely provided me with any profitable insight. Generally speaking, I consider them background noise to be ignored. 

It all depends; are you trading the metals, the ETF's or the miners themselves?

Buy signal

JP Morgan predicts $1400 Gold in 2016

Posted by caddpro123 on 11th of May 2016 at 02:32 pm

I believe breaking 1300 in May would be a strong buy signal. The money in precious metals right now is with the miners, not the metals themselves. If you wait until the price hits 1380 you will have missed a golden opportunity. (sorry I couldn't resist) Even at these levels, the miners as a whole are well below prices of just a few years ago.

JP Morgan predicts $1400 Gold in 2016

Posted by caddpro123 on 11th of May 2016 at 02:22 pm

Assuming I didn't miss a post on this JP Morgan pronouncement:

https://news.markets/commodities/1400-beckons-gold-price-jpmorgan-17332/?

9:00 am and GDX hasn't

GDX Daily

Posted by caddpro123 on 2nd of May 2016 at 08:57 am

9:00 am and GDX hasn't even traded 800K

Thoughts on the surprise FED

Posted by caddpro123 on 11th of Apr 2016 at 08:37 am

Thoughts on the surprise FED meeting this morning? Or the fact they are meeting with President Obama afterwards?

SSRI Short SSRI just made a

Posted by caddpro123 on 7th of Mar 2016 at 11:41 am

SSRI Short

SSRI just made a bid to acquire Claude Resources (CLGRF)   in a stock swap merger @ .185 per SSRI share . Claude is a small but profitable Canadian Miner. Judging by the price movement, SSRI shareholders are not happy. I hold 15K in Claude and have enjoyed a nice run since last November. But I don't consider this deal favorable to Claude Shareholders even at $1.23 a share as it was valued on March 4th. In all likelihood, SSRI will have dropped by 50% making the true value around 60 cents a share. This is in my opinion bordering on criminal. These kinds of highly questionable deals happen all the time with gold and silver companies. Such is life I am afraid.

Good Morning No comments regarding Gold

Posted by caddpro123 on 11th of Feb 2016 at 08:56 am

Good Morning

No comments regarding Gold this morning. I am surprised given it is up $36 already and GDX volume approaching 2 Million in the pre-market

Answer: I posted charts above showing Gold. The falling wedge has been shown for weeks in newsletters and the time to act was weeks ago for entry and now to manage in accordance with YOUR objectives. Further, I also showed the US Dollar in a rising wedge (wave B remember?) that broke down and served as the major catalyst for the recent move in gold.

Good Morning You have a valid

Transports

Posted by caddpro123 on 10th of Dec 2015 at 10:36 am

Good Morning

You have a valid point sbaxman111. Assuming one is willing to accept the notion that paper prices accurately reflect real world market conditions then we are all in trouble. Which in turns begs the question; Are real world market conditions accurately driving equity prices? Or are equity prices (easily manipulated and distorted) driving actual market conditions? I think that over the last 20 years in particular, there is ample evidence that in many sectors it is the latter.  The best example, and one that is readily discernable to even a casual observer, are the commodities markets in general and gold and silver in particular.

The simple fact of the matter is that human nature being what it is, if a system can be rigged for profit, it usually is. And it will continue to be rigged until such time as the system fails, or the consequences of being caught outweigh the profits. We are tittering on the edge of the precipice. Sadly, it is not because the criminals are facing penalties, but because they have driven the system to the brink. And the real tragedy is that ultimately the consequences of those actions will not be borne by the guilty parties, rather the working class people whose money they have been stealing.   IMHO of course.

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