Gundlach says if DXY has 2 closes below 100, consider going long emerging markets, in their local currencies (I realize the dollar is almost positive on the day now - lots of fed day shenanigans still going on. The next few days will tell the real story)

Trend day likely tomorrow - just don't ask me which way.  For today, I'm watching out for a move in the last 1/2 to 1 hour once people have taken their lumps on their 0 DTE's which will all be losers at this point (for people long premium). Once those put/call walls melt away some more, the market can pick a direction. 

This should be the next question asked:

https://www.getyarn.io/yarn-clip/d5e639e9-8267-4a86-95e5-34cb24873087

Powell is doing the only thing he can right now. History tells us that starting a cycle with a jumbo cut leads to market participants getting their asses handed to them. All he could do during this presser was to say every thing is completely perfect...better than ever....and then hope the historical cycle is broken.  If he slips and hints even a tiny bit at weakness on top of the already negative 50bps signal of weakness, the market is toast (for a few days). We just got a jumbo cut and I've never heard a Fed Chief more uniformly positive during the press conference. 

BTC - If I was running the CIA, I'd be dumping BTC into the market hard right now to keep it from breaking out. Having the BTC train leave the station today and break above the channel line would be a terrible look. National security at risk.

Germany started their indiscriminate open market selling of BTC on July 4th...didn't bother to disguise it - they just hit the bid for weeks. I'm sure the start date was a simple coincidence. 

FCX and MSTR stand out for me

DXY - USD is getting crushed. Gift given. You're welcome world. I hope Janet and JPOW got some decent quid pro quo out of Japan and China for executing this plan.

Dollar is down more than SPX is up. Americans often don't realize that means they are losing, but those that had to execute a FOREX transaction from their currency into USD before buying SPY, QQQ, etc, are likely very aware. 

I wrote this last night but the website was down:  

Very good thread, although maybe a bit long for some.  It puts some numbers, charts and reason behind my recent contention that the Fed has made and tomorrow will continue to make the classic historical decision to inflate their way out of the current mess.

  https://x.com/Dr_Gingerballs/status/1835413411666030645


And if market goes down because humans are emotional and see that we're in a recession...buy more. They have chosen inflation.

Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) is currently experiencing an upward Zig-Zag pattern within a Wave 3 impulse, signaling a strong potential for continued growth. AI analysis supports this outlook, assigning a high probability that the stock will continue its upward trajectory. Notably, both the Zig-Zag pattern and AI target prices converge around the $106 level, reinforcing this bullish expectation. Additionally, the Directional Movement Index (DMI) indicator reflects the current trend's strength, further suggesting that LYV is likely to continue moving higher.

Adjusting TP1 to 106 after reading this nugget   

Would you buy Amtrak or USPS if they were publicly traded? I mean, once the Gov is the only reason a company survives, it becomes a Gov company. Gov companies don't typically perform well relative to peers. Boeing is another good example of this, but almost all the defense contractors with the possible exception of SpaceX (yes, SpaceX is a major Gov Contractor and the largest unicorn in unicorn land) should have done much better than they have given their proximity the the Gov trough and price insensitive contracting officers that send purchase orders and contracts with very few strings attached and/or oversight year after year after year.  And yet, they all tend to underperform once they get in the pole position for Gov funding.  Have you ever seen a vehicle that was produced in Russia? They have them. Google it. The song remains the same. 

BRRR

SPX - if you think the Fed wouldn't do something that would spike the market higher at all time highs and that they don't realize where the market is and know that tons of algos would kick in to buy the market if we clear resistance, maybe you weren't around last year during late October.  If they really believe the economy is weak (50 would be STRONG confirmation), they know that the wealth effect from equity markets is a huge driver and wouldn't want to screw themselves by pushing it the wrong direction....even as they know it only benefits the wealthy.  They are stuck in a box, but when faced with somewhat binary decisions like this they always resort to financial repression to bail out the wealthy (wealthy corps and individuals) at the expense of the rest. 

SPY wave 5 into the meeting. Perfect. Get your popcorn ready. 

IBIT and other BTC ETF's probably asked Gensler and the SEC for permission to have options and got told that they could take their options on BTC requests and stick them where the sun don't shine. They didn't want to approve the ETF's in the 1st place   

BTC reversed on touch of longer term channel line.  IBIT has a channel break. Tempted to set a buy order for a retest of the channel break, but given the fact that IBIT is an imperfect derivative of a product that trades 24/7, I'm not inclined to trust that channel break as much as the rejection of the channel line in the actual product. 

How the hell would you have any idea? This comment x2 considering the posts that weren't seen by anyone but me. If you look back, I hadn't made up my mind. I appreciated the supportive comments both through other channels and via direct posts here (and let your standard derogatory comments about my posts go by without response). I was intrigued by the new systems that got released and that complicated the decision.  Anyway, maybe just leave it alone.  Post a chart. Thanks. 

Probably best not to share details on sources and lose my posting privileges again. Pretty sure I got shadow banned recently. It could be seen as a BPT competitor so it also wouldn't be very nice of me to post it here. I don't think that's why I got banned (don't know because I didn't get any notification from BPT when it happened) but it does seem reasonable not to post competitor links. 

Definitely a swing trade. I'm going based on wave counts and the embedded zig zag. Unlike a straight wave 3 with no pullbacks (e.g. the recent SPY wave 3), waves with zig zags in them often allow for a measured move to predict where that wave will complete (with varying accuracy that I wouldn't count on going into a day like tomorrow). The 1st leg is the measuring leg. 

LYV - long. 1st target = 106.75