Make sure and have a tight stop in there at $19 or a little
less. This ran up in 1 week from 14 almost to 25, and I can
see it pulling back to 18 or even slightly under that.
Bought $22.50 put options earlier this morning when
the VISN was just under $24, now hanging around 22
1/2-3/4. Still have almost 3 weeks left on the options.
SOHU has pulled back about $7 after it beat earnings this
morning. Got Bank of America for puts after it's big runup
early last week, and way up on those. Wish I would've
seen Fannie Mae for puts after the rumor last Mon. about Congress
helping them, spiked to 18 1/2 last Mon. AM, was down to 12 the
next day. Maybe another case of buy the rumor, sell the news
like the housing bill today.
Matt, what determines which numbers you use on your custom slow
schotastics charts? I've seen you use 60,3, 60,5, and
60,1 on different charts. Is it the timeframe (daily, 15
minute) that determines which one to use? Thanks for any help
on this.
Thanks rafe. It bounced up and down early this AM $5
either way before the market opened. Appreciate you letting
us know what a nice little pop it had today, best day in awhile,
it's been pulling back for weeks, or months actually.
I remember looking at platinum last summer-fall, and it
had major support and it kept retesting it at 1300, and
earlier this year it rose to over 2400, and recently pulled back to
1700, which is around the traditional 62% between the 1st 2
numbers, was 1750-60 this AM, and can see it going to 1850, which
would be 50%, before pulling back like you think gold will have a
short term burst, then pull back further this summer.
Thanks Dylan. I will wait for confirmation.
That's one of my and possibly a lot of our big drawbacks is jumping
the gun too quick, trying to catch a top or bottom, not being
patient enough.
What's the biotech short ETF? Here's a chart of the AMEX
long biotech ETF BBH. I checked Proshares Ishares to see if
they had a 2X short biotech fund and they don't.
I was thinking about buying some put options on VISN today, it
may not go directly to the gap at 18 1/2, but may retrace 1/2 or
more of the big day Fri. back to about 20-21 over the next few days
or week. OSIP is another one I was looking to buy puts on
(another double top at $52 from Dec.), but want to see if the AMGN
beat brings it back up a couple points first. I think the
biotechs are overbought and ready for a pullback soon, maybe after
Novartis-NVS earnings Fri., probably a beat.
VISN is at a double top almost exactly at the $23 level.
Sometimes the plainest patterns like double tops have a lot of
validity. And frequently I notice that stocks have
capitulation and huge volume at the top just like at the bottom,
everyone piles in chasing it, then volume/buying dries up after
that. And it seems like I've noticed that when a company
beats and it's on a major pullback like BUCY, then it may have some
legs, but when it's already run up, it seems to sell off after an
initial gap up. Look at this chart of VISN, and Fridays gap
up slams into the top of a Bollinger Band of 20, 4, where it's
always fallen from before, both at the beginning of the year, and
in May where the double top is.
Bought some $45 options when it was under 42 yesterday AM after
the earnings miss. May not fill the gap that it dropped
from at $53, but looking good so far.
CHK has gone from $45 to $48 in the last 90 minutes after
sinking to the day lows after the bearish oversupply in nat gas
storage, then started bouncing once nat gas did. This
stock has been beaten up right along with nat gas & oil since
the beginning of the month, might be rebounding now.
Nat. Gas report came in about a half hour ago with greater than
expected nat gas reserves/supply....84 mil cubic feet compared to
the 80 million anticipated, so that's bearish for nat. gas.
The decline in nat. gas has been killing me too. I recently
bought UNG and Chesapeake Energy (big nat. gas co.) option calls,
and they're taking a hit.
WFR-MEMC Electronics, got beat down with missing the street #'s
yesterday after the close, and I bought some $45 options
today. A couple companies upgraded it this AM, JP Morgan and
Citigroup, probably on valuation after falling from $53 to $42,
they feel it's too low, and hope they're right and it makes a fast
recovery.
SWC-Stillwater Mining Co., a platinum and palladium
company, also is looking a little better today, and have been
watching VCLK-ValueClick, which has been coming back a little
over the last day after suffering a BIG drop a week ago
lowering guidance, but it has earnings on 7/31.
Three foreign steel companies, MTL of Russia, and GGB and SID of
Brazil can be bought on the cheap too, and all seem
poised to rebound looking at their MACD and other
indicators.
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
uyg
UYG quick bounce
Posted by bob52 on 28th of Jul 2008 at 03:23 pm
Make sure and have a tight stop in there at $19 or a little less. This ran up in 1 week from 14 almost to 25, and I can see it pulling back to 18 or even slightly under that.
UYG
UYG quick bounce
Posted by bob52 on 28th of Jul 2008 at 03:02 pm
Seemed to bounce and had some support just below $19.20.
SDS
Posted by bob52 on 28th of Jul 2008 at 01:46 pm
Seems like today was just a good day for the 2x inverse ETFs, SDS, QID, and DXD, and shorts/put options. My VISN and UYG put options are doing well.
Thanks Matt
S&P 500 15 min chart.png The 15 min SPX chart never ...
Posted by bob52 on 28th of Jul 2008 at 12:47 pm
Thanks very much for your reply. I was wondering if there was a trick to it; thanks for clearing that up.
VISN
Posted by bob52 on 28th of Jul 2008 at 12:25 pm
Bought $22.50 put options earlier this morning when the VISN was just under $24, now hanging around 22 1/2-3/4. Still have almost 3 weeks left on the options. SOHU has pulled back about $7 after it beat earnings this morning. Got Bank of America for puts after it's big runup early last week, and way up on those. Wish I would've seen Fannie Mae for puts after the rumor last Mon. about Congress helping them, spiked to 18 1/2 last Mon. AM, was down to 12 the next day. Maybe another case of buy the rumor, sell the news like the housing bill today.
Slow Schotastics
S&P 500 15 min chart.png The 15 min SPX chart never ...
Posted by bob52 on 28th of Jul 2008 at 12:04 pm
Matt, what determines which numbers you use on your custom slow schotastics charts? I've seen you use 60,3, 60,5, and 60,1 on different charts. Is it the timeframe (daily, 15 minute) that determines which one to use? Thanks for any help on this.
platinum
GDX 15 min chart.png Gold stocks are moving up, remember we ...
Posted by bob52 on 28th of Jul 2008 at 11:33 am
Thanks rafe. It bounced up and down early this AM $5 either way before the market opened. Appreciate you letting us know what a nice little pop it had today, best day in awhile, it's been pulling back for weeks, or months actually.
SWC
GDX 15 min chart.png Gold stocks are moving up, remember we ...
Posted by bob52 on 28th of Jul 2008 at 11:15 am
I remember looking at platinum last summer-fall, and it had major support and it kept retesting it at 1300, and earlier this year it rose to over 2400, and recently pulled back to 1700, which is around the traditional 62% between the 1st 2 numbers, was 1750-60 this AM, and can see it going to 1850, which would be 50%, before pulling back like you think gold will have a short term burst, then pull back further this summer.
SWC
GDX 15 min chart.png Gold stocks are moving up, remember we ...
Posted by bob52 on 28th of Jul 2008 at 10:51 am
SWC, a platinum company, is also having a good day along with the gold stocks.
VISN
nice charts
Posted by bob52 on 28th of Jul 2008 at 09:26 am
Thanks Dylan. I will wait for confirmation. That's one of my and possibly a lot of our big drawbacks is jumping the gun too quick, trying to catch a top or bottom, not being patient enough.
Biotech
Posted by bob52 on 28th of Jul 2008 at 09:17 am
What's the biotech short ETF? Here's a chart of the AMEX long biotech ETF BBH. I checked Proshares Ishares to see if they had a 2X short biotech fund and they don't.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BBH&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p75526419320
VISN
nice charts
Posted by bob52 on 28th of Jul 2008 at 09:00 am
I was thinking about buying some put options on VISN today, it may not go directly to the gap at 18 1/2, but may retrace 1/2 or more of the big day Fri. back to about 20-21 over the next few days or week. OSIP is another one I was looking to buy puts on (another double top at $52 from Dec.), but want to see if the AMGN beat brings it back up a couple points first. I think the biotechs are overbought and ready for a pullback soon, maybe after Novartis-NVS earnings Fri., probably a beat.
VISN
nice charts
Posted by bob52 on 28th of Jul 2008 at 08:42 am
VISN is at a double top almost exactly at the $23 level. Sometimes the plainest patterns like double tops have a lot of validity. And frequently I notice that stocks have capitulation and huge volume at the top just like at the bottom, everyone piles in chasing it, then volume/buying dries up after that. And it seems like I've noticed that when a company beats and it's on a major pullback like BUCY, then it may have some legs, but when it's already run up, it seems to sell off after an initial gap up. Look at this chart of VISN, and Fridays gap up slams into the top of a Bollinger Band of 20, 4, where it's always fallen from before, both at the beginning of the year, and in May where the double top is.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VISN&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p94928616335
WFR
wfr
Posted by bob52 on 25th of Jul 2008 at 11:37 am
Bought some $45 options when it was under 42 yesterday AM after the earnings miss. May not fill the gap that it dropped from at $53, but looking good so far.
CHK
DIG vs CHK
Posted by bob52 on 24th of Jul 2008 at 12:55 pm
CHK has gone from $45 to $48 in the last 90 minutes after sinking to the day lows after the bearish oversupply in nat gas storage, then started bouncing once nat gas did. This stock has been beaten up right along with nat gas & oil since the beginning of the month, might be rebounding now.
Nat. Gas
UNG gas
Posted by bob52 on 24th of Jul 2008 at 11:11 am
Nat. Gas report came in about a half hour ago with greater than expected nat gas reserves/supply....84 mil cubic feet compared to the 80 million anticipated, so that's bearish for nat. gas. The decline in nat. gas has been killing me too. I recently bought UNG and Chesapeake Energy (big nat. gas co.) option calls, and they're taking a hit.
wfr
wfr
Posted by bob52 on 24th of Jul 2008 at 10:25 am
WFR-MEMC Electronics, got beat down with missing the street #'s yesterday after the close, and I bought some $45 options today. A couple companies upgraded it this AM, JP Morgan and Citigroup, probably on valuation after falling from $53 to $42, they feel it's too low, and hope they're right and it makes a fast recovery.
SWC
Posted by bob52 on 24th of Jul 2008 at 10:02 am
SWC-Stillwater Mining Co., a platinum and palladium company, also is looking a little better today, and have been watching VCLK-ValueClick, which has been coming back a little over the last day after suffering a BIG drop a week ago lowering guidance, but it has earnings on 7/31.
Steel
Steel Sector
Posted by bob52 on 18th of Jul 2008 at 11:49 am
Three foreign steel companies, MTL of Russia, and GGB and SID of Brazil can be bought on the cheap too, and all seem poised to rebound looking at their MACD and other indicators.
RIO
RIO
Posted by bob52 on 17th of Jul 2008 at 10:42 am
Thanks. Didn't know that.