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uyg

UYG quick bounce

Posted by bob52 on 28th of Jul 2008 at 03:23 pm

Make sure and have a tight stop in there at $19 or a little less.  This ran up in 1 week from 14 almost to 25, and I can see it pulling back to 18 or even slightly under that.

UYG

UYG quick bounce

Posted by bob52 on 28th of Jul 2008 at 03:02 pm

Seemed to bounce and had some support just below $19.20.

SDS

Posted by bob52 on 28th of Jul 2008 at 01:46 pm

Seems like today was just a good day for the 2x inverse ETFs, SDS, QID, and DXD, and shorts/put options.  My VISN and UYG put options are doing well. 

Thanks very much for your reply.   I was wondering if there was a trick to it; thanks for clearing that up.

VISN

Posted by bob52 on 28th of Jul 2008 at 12:25 pm

Bought $22.50 put options earlier this morning when the VISN was just under $24, now hanging around 22 1/2-3/4.  Still have almost 3 weeks left on the options.  SOHU has pulled back about $7 after it beat earnings this morning.  Got Bank of America for puts after it's big runup early last week, and way up on those.  Wish I would've seen Fannie Mae for puts after the rumor last Mon. about Congress helping them, spiked to 18 1/2 last Mon. AM, was down to 12 the next day.  Maybe another case of buy the rumor, sell the news like the housing bill today.

Matt, what determines which numbers you use on your custom slow schotastics charts?  I've seen you use 60,3,  60,5, and 60,1 on different charts.  Is it the timeframe (daily, 15 minute) that determines which one to use?  Thanks for any help on this.

Thanks rafe.  It bounced up and down early this AM $5 either way before the market opened.  Appreciate you letting us know what a nice little pop it had today, best day in awhile, it's been pulling back for weeks, or months actually.

I remember looking at platinum last summer-fall, and it had major support and it kept retesting it at 1300, and earlier this year it rose to over 2400, and recently pulled back to 1700, which is around the traditional 62% between the 1st 2 numbers, was 1750-60 this AM, and can see it going to 1850, which would be 50%, before pulling back like you think gold will have a short term burst, then pull back further this summer.

SWC, a platinum company, is also having a good day along with the gold stocks.

VISN

nice charts

Posted by bob52 on 28th of Jul 2008 at 09:26 am

Thanks Dylan.   I will wait for confirmation.  That's one of my and possibly a lot of our big drawbacks is jumping the gun too quick, trying to catch a top or bottom, not being patient enough. 

Biotech

Posted by bob52 on 28th of Jul 2008 at 09:17 am

What's the biotech short ETF?  Here's a chart of the AMEX long biotech ETF BBH.  I checked Proshares Ishares to see if they had a 2X short biotech fund and they don't.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BBH&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p75526419320

VISN

nice charts

Posted by bob52 on 28th of Jul 2008 at 09:00 am

I was thinking about buying some put options on VISN today, it may not go directly to the gap at 18 1/2, but may retrace 1/2 or more of the big day Fri. back to about 20-21 over the next few days or week.  OSIP is another one I was looking to buy puts on (another double top at $52 from Dec.), but want to see if the AMGN beat brings it back up a couple points first.  I think the biotechs are overbought and ready for a pullback soon, maybe after Novartis-NVS earnings Fri., probably a beat.

VISN

nice charts

Posted by bob52 on 28th of Jul 2008 at 08:42 am

VISN is at a double top almost exactly at the $23 level.  Sometimes the plainest patterns like double tops have a lot of validity.  And frequently I notice that stocks have capitulation and huge volume at the top just like at the bottom, everyone piles in chasing it, then volume/buying dries up after that.  And it seems like I've noticed that when a company beats and it's on a major pullback like BUCY, then it may have some legs, but when it's already run up, it seems to sell off after an initial gap up.  Look at this chart of VISN, and Fridays gap up slams into the top of a Bollinger Band of 20, 4, where it's always fallen from before, both at the beginning of the year, and in May where the double top is.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VISN&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p94928616335

WFR

wfr

Posted by bob52 on 25th of Jul 2008 at 11:37 am

Bought some $45 options when it was under 42 yesterday AM after the earnings miss.   May not fill the gap that it dropped from at $53, but looking good so far. 

CHK

DIG vs CHK

Posted by bob52 on 24th of Jul 2008 at 12:55 pm

CHK has gone from $45 to $48 in the last 90 minutes after sinking to the day lows after the bearish oversupply in nat gas storage, then started bouncing once nat gas did.   This stock has been beaten up right along with nat gas & oil since the beginning of the month, might be rebounding now.

Nat. Gas

UNG gas

Posted by bob52 on 24th of Jul 2008 at 11:11 am

Nat. Gas report came in about a half hour ago with greater than expected nat gas reserves/supply....84 mil cubic feet compared to the 80 million anticipated, so that's bearish for nat. gas.  The decline in nat. gas has been killing me too.  I recently bought UNG and Chesapeake Energy (big nat. gas co.) option calls, and they're taking a hit.

wfr

wfr

Posted by bob52 on 24th of Jul 2008 at 10:25 am

WFR-MEMC Electronics, got beat down with missing the street #'s yesterday after the close, and I bought some $45 options today.  A couple companies upgraded it this AM, JP Morgan and Citigroup, probably on valuation after falling from $53 to $42, they feel it's too low, and hope they're right and it makes a fast recovery.

SWC

Posted by bob52 on 24th of Jul 2008 at 10:02 am

SWC-Stillwater Mining Co.,  a platinum and palladium company, also is looking a little better today, and have been watching VCLK-ValueClick, which has been coming back a little over the last day after suffering a BIG drop a week ago lowering guidance, but it has earnings on 7/31. 

Steel

Steel Sector

Posted by bob52 on 18th of Jul 2008 at 11:49 am

Three foreign steel companies, MTL of Russia, and GGB and SID of Brazil can be bought on the cheap too, and all seem poised to rebound looking at their MACD and other indicators. 

RIO

RIO

Posted by bob52 on 17th of Jul 2008 at 10:42 am

Thanks.  Didn't know that.

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