FWIW I don't think it's necessarily a bearish pattern. I'm long. It held the 50-day.  It could turn the Stoch up again. If if closes back above the 20-day traders will flip to long; below the 20  they may try to scalp short again. Just be prepared to go either way. YMMV

I agree with that Matt. See also 60 Minutes lead story tonight.......govt finances continue to unravel around the world

Definitely stick an alarm on it when you see the next buy point. There's still a good chance for a muni-meltdown in 2011. Have a good weekend

Ahem. Not so far.....saved two bucks

Isn't it interesting that the media are laughing off the confirmed HO now, when they were all over it in the Summer? Isn't it interesting that the Summer HO did not have a corresponding negative weekly  divergence in the NYSE A/D, whereas this one does? And that we are coming into a two week period that is a heavy cycle point possibility for a  turn (but not guaranteed), using various cycle counts as well as Gann theory? At a time when sentiment extremes are making records? No one is short, and the vast majority wouldn't even consider it now. Just sayin'   ....

sorry, did not see your request yesterday. I'm trying to get away from the machines for a break, but I have so many positions on.

It's better that you did it yourself anyway. You/we need to work with new ideas and test them for rules before we risk real $ on them. The oscillator crossovers  can work for short periods, I'm not sure how reliable they are though.

In 2007 the neg. divergence actually came in at a good time to be a seller - you would have almost got the high tick in 2007. The fact the AD plunged while we had all that volatility was very important then.  At the April 2010 high - no divergence, so we knew it would just be a big correction. There's tons of froth now - even the Hulbert Sentiment Index is at new highs (see Marketwatch). I'm looking for a failed rally now - so far, we still haven't taken out the Dec 14 high. And since RP is on a skiing vacation in a cabin with no internet, the market will probably turn hard here (doesn't it always, when we're on vacation?)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZPQdZLyHYE

LOL

fellow BP'ers - take a look at the weekly NYSE A-D (cumulative) going back to 2006. Use the CCI and RSI oscillators. Note the negative divergences in all 3, starting in May 2007. That was a great early warning of the October top.

Now look at the recent action - it's early , but this is the first time we're seeing the same divergences. Something to keep an eye on....

Fractal of the November squeeze...

getting trading buy signals on two high yielding stocks, CSH.UN and EXE.UN.

Use stops, give it 8 -10% to breathe

Baron Rothschild  once said “I made my fortune by selling too early” (a comment also made by Bernard Baruch)

Remember there is a close correlation between the S&P and copper recently - will be interesting to see if that continues. Copper is also in a massive weekly ascending triangle.....doesn't mean it has to break down here, but worth knowing about

BTW, credit where it's due - Matt and Steve called this one as a breakout back in October. Thanks guys.

Well, there is a DeMark weekly buy signal on the TLT, and also now a daily buy signal. Look how good they have been.

Intuitively, one would normally say that with yields having risen quickly, and with sentiment so negative on  treasuries (and with pundits now coming out and saying bonds have topped, even though they topped weeks ago), it makes sense that portfolio managers will tweak portfolios and shift back to treasuries a bit coming into the end of the year because they can also meet their fiduciary responsibilities that way (take risk off, in their way of thinking). So short-term, what I have done is sold my TBT today, buying TLT - for a bounce.I think bonds are over, but they can snap back for a while.

YMMV - caveat emptor and use stops.

thanks. That co. makes no sense to me. They are sticking it to sh's, profits are weak, and the stock rallies. Go figure.

If you're following along on the SP futures, you can lower your stops now. If the market is turning there's no way it should re-visit 1239.50 March now, before going lower. 

I agree with Steve (last night's newsletter) that  we need to see 1231 cash taken out by tomorrow, or they might try for a SC rally attempt. So keep the daily trend in mind...

Oh sure, just sayin'  it's worth a look LT. Also, study the chart of NUE up until 2007. Always want to look for big bases. BTW SINA is interesting here too....

p.s. that cartoon is an oldie gut goodie

look at the SMH on a monthly basis. That is a MOnster base - question is, can we get a reliable buy signal on them for a multi-month breakout? Hopefully, our resident wizards can keep us posted on that......

Pretty easy to take an exploratory short on the S&P here, against a significant breakout.....