for the most part it's ignored all that chop noise the last month  after finally going back long in late Sept- yesterday's lows now keep -and price needs to take out that downtrend line

remember we had that Demark 13 yesterday, the VIX responds better to Demark than the SPX because it's a measure of volatility and thus doesn't trend as long as the SPX, if you look back at history the VIX responds very well to Demark - in fact you could develop a trading system out of it

remember we had that Demark 9 yesterday on the VIX and close below the lower BBands. The VIX tends to respond better to the Demark than it the SPX does because the VIX is a volatility measurement and thus doesn't trend for as long periods of time as the actual SPX index. Also watch for a close back inside the BBands. 

logical pullback from that daily ATR on the QQQ

also those 'A's or Jim Crammer followers from Tuesday

we'll see what happens rest of the day and after hrs

$SPX - Chart Link- MACD has recycled back to zero, price to the 50 SMA on 5 min, and VWAP, on a trend type of day this is the area where you would typically get a rally off of if a new high is made in the afternoon

UUP - Chart Link- tightened up the lower trendline, still possible coil

$TNX - Chart Link- 10 year up today

TLT - Chart Link- 20 year down

keep an eye on these because the market is hypersensitive to both

XOM - Chart Link- held 9 EMA last week, tested trendline today and pulled back off it

yep - as I always state, you almost always get at least a reaction move off that 61.8% Fib - got it today on USO.  

also as I stated last night, one of my comments were that the way I had the lower trendline of the wedge drawn - I stated that the lower trendline was most likely not steep enough and I would have to adjust - which ended up being the case. compare the two images here, the current one on the left and the one from last night - good educational 

for now I can count 4 waves in the wedge (better to have 5 waves or a truncated higher low 5 inside that wedge), however to me that 61.8% Fib was an objective 1st entry with a stop

UUP - Chart Link- off the lows, monitor that trendline

HYG - Chart Link- gapped up today with the market, clearing that downtrend line

TLT - Chart Link- slightly up today, would be good for the market if we see a strong reversal on this

$TNX - Chart Link- slightly down, but no break of the 9 EMA yet

dragonfly28if you were following along last Thursday I posted a few times that the bear long was meeting conditions for a long trigger on ES when futures were at the morning lows and for some of the time after the cash market closed. However, the market rallied strongly enough that day to cause the conditions to go away.  Here's a link to that post, click to read it

https://breakpointtrades.com/blog/post/379453/ 

Looks like you started here in early June and since that time you've seen a lot of reversion to mean system trades. That said - this year is a bear market and the systems are much more active than normal year. In past years the systems could go as long as 1 or 2 months with no trades because the moves were not extreme enough to trigger them.  This has been a fun year with the systems being so active - however there will come a time when we won't see a trade occur for 1 or 2 months. And as Steve said - the systems have exact triggers, on Thursday morning the bear long was meeting conditions for a trigger, but by the close and rally off the lows that day, those conditions were not longer being met. The systems have exact levels that have to meet in order to trigger - there's no subjectivity about them like we have when drawing trendlines and patterns like coils and flags - if one indicator is off 1 tick, no trigger. Whereas with a subjective trendline there's wiggle room. 

exactly and be nimble. surprises come in the direction of the trend and since price closed at the channel, some negative news could come out of nowhere and send price right down from here.  Price could break out of the channel and go up for a couple days (maybe Wed) to 3800, then top and drop to new lows. Or price could chop around higher for a couple weeks before dropping again, be nimble

UUP - Chart Link- watch Dollar, had that bearish MACD KISS / Stoch OS last week. Some people were questioning my call for a possible lower high last week, if it loses the 20 day MA here that would confirm it more

$TNX - Chart Link- still holding that 9 EMA, otherwise has divergence potential, but needs to close the 9 EMA on a closing basis at the very least

HYG - Chart Link- stalled at downtrend line resistance for now

yep exactly. plus things like sentiment and all the action in the options market with all big bets in the puts, and news (UK etc) help create moves like this

and remember we still had that higher low potential with that symmetry break relative to the Oct 5th high. Also the MACD divergence on daily and 1/2 day and divergence, and pos div on the SPX McClellan. 

this morning so far price retested the downtrend channel line and found initial resistance there, however if this ends up being at trend day it would likely break it. my thoughts is that we have a higher low for now and if price retests that trendline again this morning price will probably break through it

TXRH - Chart Link- that one I pointed out this morning had retested that trendline broke out nicely

FIVN - Chart Link- one of the reversion to mean setups triggered off that doji

XOM - Chart Link- last night I said to watch for a possible rally off the 9 day EMA on XLE and energy stocks - they all had the same pattern as XOM

DVT Dynamic Variable Trigger Stop. It's 100% custom and coded in Tradestation at this time, no where else. It was an attempt by me to try and make a trend following system that works on almost anything, it's not perfect but it's pretty good. 

Otherwise it was also my born out my attempt to find something for friends and family that is long only and keeps you invested in bull markets but with a dynamically raised DVT insurance stop, that is wide enough to avoid a lot of noise, but keep you from going through major corrections, and of course bear markets. 

it's not available to the public at this time. I'll do a video on it again one of these days. We're in a bear market no so it's mostly going to be in cash for the indexes. For individual stocks etc, it just depends on what trend it is in. 

I spent some time and placed all the sub systems that triggered on ES on one chart, all longs and all shorts. I'll do the same for SPY as well. I wanted to put all SPY and ES triggered systems on one chart, and I may still do that, but the image will be quite large

remember even though there are 22 systems, not all systems can trigger. On this image I placed all longs in green, and all shorts in gray bars, with all longs on left, and all shorts on right.

The longs from top left show systems that only typically trigger in bull markets: Trend Long, QE BTS and above the 200 day MA. For the shorts only 4 sub systems triggered on ES, for SPY a couple other ones triggered that didn't on ES such as Stoch Rev and Stoch 60 shorts. Remember there are short systems that also only trigger in bull markets typically like the Exhaustion that you won't ever seen now. And Stoch short 80 could only occur after a good long rally that got a 60 length Stochastic to get near 80%

remember yesterday I sent out a trade alert for a short on SPY via Hi Mid Low, then I sent out a retraction about an hr after the close to close out the ETF (I win bonehead reward for that) but it was too late to close out the SPY Put so that got held- which is WAY up today. And we have the ES short from Tuesday

there are no NEW systems doing anything today, no longs, and certainly no new shorts (the systems short rallies in downtrends not at sell off lows like today). 

mid day update on the ES systems that went short

1. the QE BTS that went short on Tuesday is still looking to close out despite the 100 point drop in ES because the BPT MOMO indicator still hasn't flipped from green to red. But it's close - should ES be down 120 or 150 points, that may be enough to flip it red and it would then hold instead of closing. 

2. the Hi Mid Lo ver 2 that went short yesterday will exit, that one doesn't have any trend hold component

$TNX - Chart Link- bounced off support early this week

TLT - Chart Link- got smacked down at that downtrend line on Monday

UUP - Chart Link- we'll see if this makes a new high or a lower high

early heads up the open ES short will likely close out today, it could end up holding if it ends up being a large down day that would flip it's trend hold indicator red

it's won't be doing anything yesterday there was probably a perfect alignment of the indicators that for a time intra day all lined up but then went away and now can't setup again because we are not oversold anymore - that washout trade only occurred 4 times in history, so odds almost never favor it triggering. More than likely it will only trigger after the market is well off the lows after confirming an uptrend

we are in bear market best to play the reversion to mean systems and other setups vs worrying about that daily or weekly KISS long only going back long