had a Demark 13 on the 15 min ES chart with those ES levels

also a textbook MACD KISS/Stoch short had setup on the 5 min, which that system already covered

otherwise it's a trend day up so

GDX - Chart Link- nice bounce today, now has a 'W' type of pattern, and the stocks are leading today.

watch the GDX/GLD ratio trendline

$SPX - Chart Link- remember the previous largest pullback in the uptrend from the Oct lows was about 340 points (from December's pullback). The pullback today basically tagged that area, exceeded it by 8 points (close enough). 

$SPX - Chart Link- daily

was logical to expect at least some support from that symmetry target area

BOWL - Chart Link- this one continues to be strong

now these others below, they all broke out and have pulled back to retest previous broken trendlines - these are areas where you would look for these stocks to find support and rally again (if the market holds up). Too many of you guys see a setup go and rally for a day or 2, then pullback and you forget out it like it's out of play - pullbacks to test previous breakout areas are low risk and objective

PDD - Chart Link-

SOFI - Chart Link-

BIDU - Chart Link-

MYMD - Chart Link-

again I'm just getting back up and trying to get up to speed. on GDX it stalled at the 20 day MA, which we expected. This latest pullback watch for a potential double bottom or a divergent low perhaps - again you need a trigger of some sort - i.e. a break of a trendline on price or RSI, I would view smaller time frames such as 60 min etc for a pattern that you can trigger off. 

this morning you basically had a double bottom bounce for now

woke up to blue screen computer of death, been dealing with that shit for the last 2 hrs LOL, finally got it back up

anyway since yesterday was a strong trend day I figured today would be more of a chop day, which appears to be playing out so far

shows the closeout of the Trend/Pullback

would have been nice if some of those ES systems had held another day, oh well is what it is

yeah I mean you could tell right away after the open - usually within 5 - 10 min you can tell by the tape, it's these kind of days I go long and try to buy intra day dips with ES futures or SPY options.

again with this market as it's been for a few years now, it trades in extremes goes from very overbought to very oversold and vice versa

too bad more of the systems didn't stay long. Well is what it is. At least one stayed long the Trend/Pulllback, but it too is closing out at the close of today

the Trend/Pullback system should be exiting today, it only had 1 entry and is exiting the best

GDX - Chart Link- watch for resistance near that 20 day MA

GDX - Chart Link- 60 min view, this is an area to watch: note the 14 RSI trendlines, one was broken and is backtesting the underside, potentially resistance. Also, I can draw a second trendline to watch for a break of that one

SPY systems:

- Trend/Pullback is holding and staying long
- QE BTS is exiting
- Strap is exiting
- the newer bear long that didn't exit is staying long

ES systems:

Most of the reversion to mean systems are exiting today: on ES looks like all of the are exiting: Bear long both versions. By the way one of the bear long systems took a 2nd entry yesterday which I didn't report because it's the less profitable version but obviously would have been good to take that, Strap exiting. ES doesn't confirm until 5 pm EST but that's what it's looking like at this moment. 

IWM - Chart Link- obviously gapped below that coil this morning - which lower trendline could be resistance now

IWM - Chart Link-60 min channel

IWM - Chart Link- daily - still over the 50 day MA, quite a bit stronger than the SPX and QQQ

RIG - Chart Link - RIG has rallied strongly for over a week bouncing off that 50 day MA since that gap down, however it broke uptrend symmetry, which argues for a lower high. Also note the MACD is not keeping up with price here and volume hasn't been strong on this move. so I'm cautious on it now

image shows you the long systems on ES, but the same is true on the SPY side of things. I'm seeing a possible trigger on the Trend/Pullback system.

again when trading the systems you have to decide a game plan: capital you are using, instruments you are trading for the systems, and if you are going to take each individual sub system trade or you are going to limit how many individual systems you take; again that's up to you to decide.

that said - for my eventual goal of adding an ETF basket (SPY, IWM, QQQ, DIA, EEM, etc), for such a basket I won't be doing all the individual sub systems for each ETF, that's simply too much to follow. Even now people struggle with the individual systems on SPY and ES, and remember the reason I have been sharing all the sub systems is in order to get the most trade opportunity and the systems act as a risk mitigation against one another i.e. if one system has a bad trade chances are another system will catch a winning trade around that same time to make up for it.

but again, in the future after I have an ETF basket I'll have all the sub systems on one chart for each ETF, that way only one system can be active at one time, or I may decide to place all longs on one ETF chart and all shorts on the same ETF.  

anyway that's some of my longer term plans with this stuff

I hope everyone had a nice weekend! As you know I was out of town last week traveling both personal and business, and as is the usual case typically whenever Steve or myself travels, the market tends to sell off sharply, and that ended up being the case once again. For the week the SPX lost -2.7%, the Dow Jones lost -3%, the QQQ fell -3.3%, and IWM small caps gave back -2.9%. Every sector we follow (21 of them) closed down between -2% to -4%, save for XLE energy which gained a paltry +0.2%. 

The US Dollarhad a huge week gaining 1.4% and that helped to create weakness across the board, commodities, and precious metals. Also of note; emerging markets and Chinese stocks, which lead the market rally, have been leading the decline down.

The 10-Year Yieldcontinues to rally and is becoming a cause for concern

Long-termwe called for a bear market over a year ago, back in December 2021 and confirmed it in January 2022. Our opinion have never waivered and we still think we are overall in a longer term bear market. It become obvious from the various breadth indicator that the market had put in a decent trade low in October. 

Short-termthe market put in a high in early February (SPX 4195) and in has followed typical seasonality weakness for February, with a sell off nearly off of February. The SPX is testing the year plus long downtrend linethat was broken in January and also tested the 200 day MA on Friday with a doji candlestick. This is potential major support, but the onus is on the 'bulls' to intercept the football from the 'bears' and attempt a rally. It's possible that the SPX completed a wave C high in early February and that was the highs for the bear market rally. It's also possible for the 'bulls' to attempt one more rally off this area and test some of those higher areas that we've had marked as important around the 4300 area.

$SPX - Chart Link- drawing well-defined uptrend lines on the 14 RSI can provide great sell signals as we've seen recently and last year

$SPX - Chart Link- doji candle formed on Friday and a test of the downtrend line and the 200 day MA. One valid long trigger would be taking a long if price takes out the high of Friday's doji with an immediate stop at the low.  The recent highs either completed that wave C, or the 'bulls' could still try to reclaim the football and get one more rally up?

$SPX - Chart Link- 15 min

$SPX - Chart Link- 120 min view

$SPX - Chart Link- 1/2 day view

$SPX - Chart Link- daily testing one trendline and 20 day MA - so far that RSI trendline break has given a nice signal

AQN - Chart Link - still hanging in there, could probably have a stop just below trendline as this point

HCC - Chart Link - again if you didn't stop out yesterday you have  gift now as it's positive

PZZA - Chart Link- hanging in there

MNST - Chart Link- still hangs in there

my quite writeup - keeping it simple tonight, and not adding any trade ideas

The market started off with a large gap down; overnight futures peaked at 11 pm last night and drifted lower into the morning, and then had a sudden hard drop over a strong PPI number, and a decline in jobless claims, which leaves the door open for more rate hikes as inflation is clearly still very hot. The daily SPX closed right back at its 20 day MA, below this level the next support would be the uptrend line from early January, and an even wider uptrend can be drawn from the October lows. 

Short-term the SPX remains in a tight coil pattern and is at the bottom of the range, however the onus is on the 'bulls' to fight to defend this area and push higher, otherwise it could break down and go to those lower support levels. Remember, both the SPX and QQQ had a bearish break in symmetry on the pullback last week, and thus we have a lower high in place so far.

GDX - Chart Link- we'll see where GDX ends up finally bouncing. The 200 day MA isn't too far below now

GDX - Chart Link- here's a 2hr time frame, price more than filled that gap. 

what to watch now is the GDX/GLD ratio trendline, and the symmetry - the dotted green shows the largest bounce in the downtrend