looks like wave 1 of 1 of 3 down may have found a bottom. Now
where will it run to .382, .50, .618????
15 min 144 sto is crossing up......
though I wouldn't be surprised to see waves A and B of 2 done
today with wave C rally on another up Monday! Unless this market
will really mess with us by going to 1113, it looks like a good
time to look for another place to add shorts sometime early next
week.
Should be an interesting weekend update. The daily has a nice
big hammer forming on the lower BB which is potentially bullish
assuming no big sell off between now and the close. The bearish
part is there is no positive divergences on the daily MACD and only
very slight divergence on the RSI. One thing to note is that the
last time we had a hammer or doji this large on the SPX was June 09
and we got a 200 point rally but we had all the bullish divergences
leading up to that bottom.
Obviously everyone buying in anticipation of the Monday rally.
Now if it doesn't occur things could get real ugly!
Well they "might" have been buying in anticipation of a rally
Monday but from the extreme oversold area that isn't really saying
much!! Assuming this is the bearish case wave 2 up in progress,
when 3 of 3 kicks off to the downside that ought to really be
something.
Maybe it is just that the market has fooled me quite a bit
lately but the best way to fool people now would be a very very
strong wave 2 that retraces say .886 to .99 of wave 1 here. Wave 2s
can do that, don't have to but could. Man would that confuse the
heck out of everyone!!
Of course let's not forget this outside possibility that this is
a wave 4 of 1 down.... which has now retraced .40 of wave 3 of 1
down here.
Yeah looking forward to the weekend reports from many quarters,
for sure. Maybe they will get it done before the Superbowl? We can
dream, huh?
As far as being overbought, stocks are at the top of their BB on
15-minute charts. On 60-minute charts, EMA(50) is the line in the
sand, currently at 1080 on $SPX. $NYMO shows an oversold condition.
A likely possibility that this market will have an up day on Monday
and perhaps early on Tuesday. SPY at 107.0 and 107.50 should be a
resistance too, and we closed right next to it. Not much gains on
the upside, yet a couple of range-bound days are on the horizon.
FWIW.
SPX wave 1 of 3 down done?
Posted by perthx on 5th of Feb 2010 at 03:21 pm
looks like wave 1 of 1 of 3 down may have found a bottom. Now where will it run to .382, .50, .618????
15 min 144 sto is crossing up......
though I wouldn't be surprised to see waves A and B of 2 done today with wave C rally on another up Monday! Unless this market will really mess with us by going to 1113, it looks like a good time to look for another place to add shorts sometime early next week.
Should be an interesting weekend
Posted by phillw on 5th of Feb 2010 at 03:32 pm
Should be an interesting weekend update. The daily has a nice big hammer forming on the lower BB which is potentially bullish assuming no big sell off between now and the close. The bearish part is there is no positive divergences on the daily MACD and only very slight divergence on the RSI. One thing to note is that the last time we had a hammer or doji this large on the SPX was June 09 and we got a 200 point rally but we had all the bullish divergences leading up to that bottom.
Obviously everyone buying in anticipation of the Monday rally. Now if it doesn't occur things could get real ugly!
Ugly Monday? phillw
Posted by perthx on 5th of Feb 2010 at 04:25 pm
Well they "might" have been buying in anticipation of a rally Monday but from the extreme oversold area that isn't really saying much!! Assuming this is the bearish case wave 2 up in progress, when 3 of 3 kicks off to the downside that ought to really be something.
Maybe it is just that the market has fooled me quite a bit lately but the best way to fool people now would be a very very strong wave 2 that retraces say .886 to .99 of wave 1 here. Wave 2s can do that, don't have to but could. Man would that confuse the heck out of everyone!!
Of course let's not forget this outside possibility that this is a wave 4 of 1 down.... which has now retraced .40 of wave 3 of 1 down here.
Yeah looking forward to the weekend reports from many quarters, for sure. Maybe they will get it done before the Superbowl? We can dream, huh?
As far as being overbought,
Posted by junkie on 5th of Feb 2010 at 04:54 pm
As far as being overbought, stocks are at the top of their BB on 15-minute charts. On 60-minute charts, EMA(50) is the line in the sand, currently at 1080 on $SPX. $NYMO shows an oversold condition. A likely possibility that this market will have an up day on Monday and perhaps early on Tuesday. SPY at 107.0 and 107.50 should be a resistance too, and we closed right next to it. Not much gains on the upside, yet a couple of range-bound days are on the horizon. FWIW.
The bullish view would be
Posted by steve on 5th of Feb 2010 at 03:37 pm
The bullish view would be that we saw an abc decline off the highs. The bearish count would likely have us rallying in wave 2 of 3 down.
Wave 2 of 3 down
Posted by parki48 on 5th of Feb 2010 at 06:35 pm
Steve
I favour the 2 rally of 3 down, whether l get what l want is another matter.
I believe February will be down hard and we start the March rally around the next full moon date.
Your lean is? Why?
Posted by sbalsiger on 5th of Feb 2010 at 04:05 pm
Your lean is? Why?
vix
Posted by rkelman on 5th of Feb 2010 at 04:03 pm
look at that vix reversal candle!!~